North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Dan B]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Was up at 05:30 - Rain as per.

Then missus  let the Terriers out to a Blizzard - so yes!

Interesting slushy drive to Mellor - a few handbrake turns in the compound.

 

If we got a dusting here; Mellor must have had a good covering as it's 5mins up the road and much higher than we are

[Slidergate '17]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

GFS still throwing a right spanner in the works and going against all models for a prolonged cold spell.

Awful chart!

That needs posting in the mad thread for the lol's.

[Day 10]

Until we get consensus within t72 then it could still go very wrong, I'm giving it til Wed. Any snow charts at the mo are JFF.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Day 10

[Manchester_Sunset]

14 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Yes, big problems in parts of Yorkshire according to the BBC. Just off for my first Covid 'jab', at least the absence of snow here in the south of the NW region means that the appointments are still on, unlike Ripon and Harrogate.

Mum has the DN supposed to be going out to giver her the covid jab. I just hope they can get to her 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Hope this easterly comes off especially with the low heights as that will help any ppn cross the hills, rarely get anything more than 1cm but atleast its always powder snow and sunny. Sick of all this wrong side of marginal crap.

[Had Worse]

What is going on in the MOD thread.

could be 180 pages and no clearer.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Surprised there isnt much snow on the western fells, only looks like a dusting above 400M, snow line will probably drop dramatically tue further inland you go.

[captaincroc]

1 hour ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

Weekend looks very interesting 

This post is very good to see. If the Met O are starting to ramp this weekend then they must have some confidence in the Easterly coming in.  Maybe Mogreps is in on it too?  On paper, it is ALL the models vs GFS Op...so you would *hope* it is looking the easterly is looking the likely option...but you never know?  That's why having the professionals sticking their neck out must be a sign of confidence. The 6z GFS shifted early doors in a better direction, let's hope the 12z finalises the deal.

[russwirral]

Id rather be building to a decent synoptic solution, than have the perfect scenario 5 days out, and risk losing it...

 

Im hopeful this is what the GFS is doing... all the ingredients are spot on for a very cold spell... but it loses its head too quickly.  All i want to see is a decent easterly develop, then a LP smash into it and stall over the North west...

 

It can happen, and has happened before, and represents one of the few scenarios us on the wirral have any chance at a decent covering of snow... we are overdue 

[Pendlesnow]

Jus5 had another dumping this morning slight thaw starting now, usual beer pic for me lol....looking at Pendle hill it’s been free of snow only 2 days since 27 December and looks like plenty more to come !!

[iand61]

59 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Horrendous stuff - fell through a warm sector once froze all the doors solid.

Anyway - useless snow chart for the Easterly  - some serious toy throwing on Sunday for the SE but at least our barren wasteland will be dry Will it have the strength to climb over the big hill?

It’s melting off the windows a bit now but it may be as much to do with heating in the conservatory as outside temperature on the up.

as for weekend, I detected a bit of frustration in the Mad thread this morning but didn’t see the charts so if this comes off then it all makes sense.

hopefully they won’t downgrade to much, even for the SE and let’s hope that there is enough in the showers to get over the mighty Pennines and give our snow starved region something that doesn’t just fall, but lasts.

[Thunder Snow]

Had snow flurries most of the morning, slight dusting in place, however my sister in Maryport has had snow and a dusting.

[itsnowjoke]

Raining 

[Mark_p]

Significant temp contrasts over the UK again. 13 degrees in some southern parts already. Still a chill here but you can feel the difference from yesterday when the air was cold and dry. 

[A Face like Thunder]

9 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

Significant temp contrasts over the UK again. 13 degrees in some southern parts already. Still a chill here but you can feel the difference from yesterday when the air was cold and dry. 

Yes, and the sun was out all day here, unlike today. 

[Mark_p]

Yeah I was hoping for some brightness today but its not looking good. 

[Backtrack]

20 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

Significant temp contrasts over the UK again. 13 degrees in some southern parts already. Still a chill here but you can feel the difference from yesterday when the air was cold and dry. 

Plenty more of that to come in the next few weeks I think. A real blocking scenario now starting to take hold with constant colder air reloads. I can't see any viable path to mild, even if the GFS verifies, it's still a moderately cold run with some members suggesting we could be in for a real stonker of a cold spell. For us this far west, any snow is likely to be super limited to the odd flake, whilst the east gets battered. But I really don't mind, sunny and cold of a day time and clear and bitter of a night time is great. Means I can go practice my astro photography some more

[Had Worse]

There is some debate about cold spilling into the Atlantic and giving the jet some zip.

Could be very interesting with a roaring jet on a southerly .

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Had Worse

[Chris.R]

Think maximum temperatures have been overestimated. It is still 3.9 °C here but the WRF thinks it should be around 8 by now and the Met about 5.

[The Northern Ramper]

2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Did you get any this morning?

That’s a bit personal

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

That’s a bit personal

Smutty mind lol  

[The Northern Ramper]

When I’m working I dont bother with the mod thread so much. I’ll read from 3pm onwards until after the ecm and it’s surprising how sane it keeps you not having the roller coaster of each run by just concentrating on one set a day.

The UKMO and ECM would need to be wrong at T72 for the GFS to be right, not going to happen.

[Dan B]

2ºC here and dry for a change; it's been sleeting and raining all morning... 

[Manchester_Sunset]

Temperature now up 4c from 2c this morning

[Thunder Snow]

Just started to snow again