North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[severe snowstorm]

Lovely frosty sunny start to the day here, will be a complete contrast tomorrow morning. If the Easterly comes to fruition, we could well end up with predominantly slate grate skies and just the odd snow grain every now and again which is not uncommon. Eastern parts of the region favoured for potential of something a bit more substantial of course.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Dexter

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Yes the freezing rain will be restricted to 100 m plus where the air or ground temperature is below 0. Ice pellets on low ground but  BBC wouldn’t know what an ice pellet was if it hit them in the face!

 

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Don’t be too downhearted yet. It all depends on the depth of cold, the strength of the wind and how unstable the air. East of the region is best placed but it is not unheard of for the west of the region to get snow showers off an easterly , it certainly did in the 90s. East of the M6 is most certainly favoured, but you never know. 
 

Also for convective showers those charts are a bag of sh*te. 

Agree with both of you, there where two other easterly events I remember aside from 91, the dates unfortunately are vague, it may well of been 87 and then somewhere in mid to late nineties. They where STRONG snowy easterlies which produced snow even here and this one could well be the same.

IF we get this cold spell started then we COULD be looking at something notable which obviously increasing the chances on snow greatly anyway, all good!

 

On a side note I fully agree with @Weather-history totally bizarre forecast again!

 

Quoted the wrong post there Chris, it was meant for your easterly one. I also agree with your analysis of today's busted snow, I expect the warning area to move up to something like below.

Snow turning to rain from the south.

[The Northern Ramper]

I repeat what I said yesterday, ignore the precipitation charts for the weekend, the east of the region does very well from this set up.

[tvh3382]

Thought I would leave this here.  BBC forecast for the week ahead.  This screen shot is for a week on Wednesday.  I don’t think any model is showing this.

[Manchester_Sunset]

4 minutes ago, tvh3382 said:

Thought I would leave this here.  BBC forecast for the week ahead.  This screen shot is for a week on Wednesday.  I don’t think any model is showing this.

 

I saw yesterday forecast 8-10c this week.

It's going to be mild but not that mild  

[Had Worse]

9 minutes ago, tvh3382 said:

Thought I would leave this here.  BBC forecast for the week ahead.  This screen shot is for a week on Wednesday.  I don’t think any model is showing this.

Its just a load of hot air.

[Iceaxecrampon]

30 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I repeat what I said yesterday, ignore the precipitation charts for the weekend, the east of the region does very well from this set up.

It’s not all about the East lol. 
 

One thing next weekend probably not going to be on the mild side of things. Get the cold in first and the rest will follow? 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Iceaxecrampon

[Manchester_Sunset]

Bbc have me for 8c tomorrow and rain 

[frosty ground]

54 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Yes the freezing rain will be restricted to 100 m plus where the air or ground temperature is below 0. Ice pellets on low ground but  BBC wouldn’t know what an ice pellet was if it hit them in the face!

In the US some areas are expecting 3/4 of an inch of freezing rain, that must be an incredible sight

[Geordiesnow]

59 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Yes the freezing rain will be restricted to 100 m plus where the air or ground temperature is below 0. Ice pellets on low ground but  BBC wouldn’t know what an ice pellet was if it hit them in the face!

I guess maybe the BBC forecasters are using the freezing rain to describe ice pellets, not quite the same thing but I guess to Joe public it would look like freezing rain. 

Whilst I'm glad Carol is now covid free, I just watched the bbc forecast on the website and for some bizzare reason, the graphics she using for a 24 hour forecast is the low resolution so its overemphasizing the snow more than what it probablly will be in reality. 

[Had Worse]

Expect nowt and anything is then a bonus 

[Dan B]

-1ºC and a light frost here; nice to wake up to for a change  

 

Tomorrow's looking miserable for us here; but cannot see temps much higher than 4ºC looking across various forecasts. Will see what it brings 

[Frosty the Snowman]

With our snow events always correcting south it would only be fair if this dumping over Scotland did a southwards shuffle. 

[The Northern Ramper]

23 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

It’s not all about the East lol. 
 

One thing next weekend probably not going to be on the mild side of things. Get the cold in first and the rest will follow? 

True and I don’t want to sound like some in another thread. It’s because it’s showing nothing here when 4 years of being snow obsessive has taught me different

[russwirral]

7 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

With our snow events always correcting south it would only be fair if this dumping over Scotland did a southwards shuffle. 

youd think wouldnt you... I dont recall many snow events correcting south in our favour - ever?  

 

I can remember them correcting north (like tonights), and I can remember them correcting south, but very rarely to they arrive in the middle to us.

 

such a shame as have to rely on showers all the time for snow fun. (which have their own issues even when conditions are extremely on side)

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Lovely morning here and just right for a walk and some outdoor exercise. The calm before the storm?

[Had Worse]

Just now, A Face like Thunder said:

Lovely morning here and just right for a walk and some outdoor exercise. The calm before the storm?

My lovely walk yesterday left me like a hippo in the mud and a cut hand from catching a thick bramble branch as I fell.

I will take the less muddy route in future.

[griff74]

I'm so confused now with the const flips from "it's going to be sub-artic and everywhere getting buried" to "it's going to be normal wet and mild, watch out for flooding" that I don't know nor believe ANY weather forecasts I see! 

[russwirral]

26 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Lovely morning here and just right for a walk and some outdoor exercise. The calm before the storm?

yeh been out here already for a walk, first time in weeks things have dried out.  we are currently having an extension built, and its just been mud everywhere...

 

well, the mud on the drive and road has finally dried... must be the dry continental air we imported... temporarily

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, griff74 said:

I'm so confused now with the const flips from "it's going to be sub-artic and everywhere getting buried" to "it's going to be normal wet and mild, watch out for flooding" that I don't know nor believe ANY weather forecasts I see! 

The Met office has constantly used the word 'Battleground'

At the moment we are on the cold side but by this time tomorrow we will be on the warmer side. By the end of the week, we will be back on the cold side again.

The fronts that divide this warm and cold airmass, drop alot of precipitation, the cold side being wintery and the warmer side being very wet.

[Thunder Snow]

Not expecting anything from tonight front, might get a suprise but if my luck continues I might see some sleet lol

[frosty ground]

Met Office App has a period of snow for Tuesday now, including sleet?

[russwirral]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Met Office App has a period of snow for Tuesday now, including sleet?

you must be on high ground, higher than say glossop, majority of north east manchester is down as Rain.  M43 / Ashton/ Stalybridge

[WillinGlossop]

Some apps... I know automated

say 5 hours snow 5 hours ice pellets/freezing rain... suppose it depends on precipitation intensity and how quickly it moves through... 

anyhows gorgeous sunny dry day out currently... robins, bull finch, nut hatch and woodpecker in back garden this morning 

[frosty ground]

28 minutes ago, russwirral said:

you must be on high ground, higher than say glossop, majority of north east manchester is down as Rain.  M43 / Ashton/ Stalybridge

Yes at 300m, but earlier it was all rain