North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[severe snowstorm]

Liverpool Airport TAF includes possibility of snow between 07:00 and 12:00 tomorrow.   

[SnowWatcher2]

Interesting Ensemble forecast.

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Refusing to get drawn into this. I honestly cannot see the ppn reaching here, or if it does it will not be cold enough for snow. The front isn't aligned right for me. We need to see a more n/s alignment not a nw/se one. Too far out anyway for any excitement yet. 

Difference between the weekend and new week, is it a positively aligned front with a SW flow momentum behind it, so the front should should move through, whether in practice will see, but the forcing is much better. Main issue is more likely will it turn in on itself and drop back south through us, very plausible.

Edited January 29, 2021 by damianslaw

[Day 10]

7 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Refusing to get drawn into this. I honestly cannot see the ppn reaching here, or if it does it will not be cold enough for snow. The front isn't aligned right for me. We need to see a more n/s alignment not a nw/se one. Too far out anyway for any excitement yet. 

Lol, but we all still do just incase, that's why you're here checking in. 

[Day 10]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Liverpool Airport TAF includes possibility of snow between 07:00 and 12:00 tomorrow.   

[Day 10]

27 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Looks great but not getting sucked in again!  Met Office are on board with the warnings - don’t know whether that’s a good thing or not considering their pretty poor performance warning wise this Winter. 

No me neither, honest! 

[severe snowstorm]

The updated metoffice forecast for the region below. What could possibly go wrong between now and Tuesday?

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

A bright and frosty start to Sunday, slightly cloudy later. Cold and dry with sunny spells for Monday. Windy with outbreaks of snow on Tuesday.

[Spah1]

Love the word ‘significant’! 
 

 

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

Trying hard not to get sucked in lol!

The ICON is just bloody superb for large parts of the North West, stalling heavy snow all of Tuesday, still going on Wednesday!!!

 

 

Could really do with that whole band moving 50 miles North. I’ll never recover from that if it stays across the Midlands for 2 days. 

[iand61]

13 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Love the word ‘significant’! 
 

 

Yeah unless it’s followed by potential

[iand61]

14 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Could really do with that whole band moving 50 miles North. I’ll never recover from that if it stays across the Midlands for 2 days. 

50 is your lot though otherwise our snow will end up as cold rain

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

50 is your lot though otherwise our snow will end up as cold rain

Going to be an exhausting 4 days checking every model I can find. 

[Spah1]

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 3 Feb - Friday 12 Feb

Wintry precipitation is likely to persist over northern areas on Wednesday, showers in the far southwest, elsewhere rather cloudy with plenty of dry weather. Mild at first in the south; though high pressure building up over the north of the UK during this period is likely to bring easterly winds, cold temperatures, and coastal snow showers. A pattern of wintry showers persisting across the far north, elsewhere seeing mostly fine weather, widespread frosts, fog, and icy patches. Eastern parts seeing the most hazardous conditions, with further snow showers likely. The south and west will see the most of any organised rain and snow, but frontal systems are generally not expected to progress across the country.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021
 

 

I would love to be on the Eastern side of the country waiting for the constant snow showers. 

[iand61]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Going to be an exhausting 4 days checking every model I can find. 

Check them all but then go in the Mad thread and cherry pick the ones showing snow in our region and tell them how bad it’s going to get while ignoring charts showing snow anywhere else

go on i dare you

[griff74]

4 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Check them all but then go in the Mad thread and cherry pick the ones showing snow in our region and tell them how bad it’s going to get while ignoring charts showing snow anywhere else

go on i dare you

Just say it doesn't look great for the South East, only if you are VERY brave!! 

[Joe Bloggs]

12z ICON shows snow for most if not all of the region on Tuesday. 
 

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Check them all but then go in the Mad thread and cherry pick the ones showing snow in our region and tell them how bad it’s going to get while ignoring charts showing snow anywhere else

go on i dare you

I seem to recall that one of our posters was temporarily restricted from posting in the mod thread a couple of years ago because they were posting too many polar maritime type flow charts that were good for the North West. You then had some Southern members allowed to post snow photos in the mod thread with no restriction.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Dexter

[WillinGlossop]

Interesting charts but 4-5 days out... notice icon now showing Manchester “dry slot” again At least it’ll be cold

[iand61]

15 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 3 Feb - Friday 12 Feb

Wintry precipitation is likely to persist over northern areas on Wednesday, showers in the far southwest, elsewhere rather cloudy with plenty of dry weather. Mild at first in the south; though high pressure building up over the north of the UK during this period is likely to bring easterly winds, cold temperatures, and coastal snow showers. A pattern of wintry showers persisting across the far north, elsewhere seeing mostly fine weather, widespread frosts, fog, and icy patches. Eastern parts seeing the most hazardous conditions, with further snow showers likely. The south and west will see the most of any organised rain and snow, but frontal systems are generally not expected to progress across the country.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021
 

 

I would love to be on the Eastern side of the country waiting for the constant snow showers. 

Could be a set up from the good winters of old, fronts heading east hitting a cold feed from the continent and for somewhere it’s ground zero.

would prefer a more west to east alignment though as hopefully a less mild source to start with.

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Interesting charts but 4-5 days out... notice icon now showing Manchester “dry slot” again At least it’ll be cold

Yep Manchester will only get light snow if this setup verifies , best to accept that up front. 
 

Merseyside Lancs and Cheshire will do better. 

[Spah1]

10 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Check them all but then go in the Mad thread and cherry pick the ones showing snow in our region and tell them how bad it’s going to get while ignoring charts showing snow anywhere else

go on i dare you

Will do closer to Tuesday. 

[Day 10]

26 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Going to be an exhausting 4 days checking every model I can find. 

[Spah1]

Oh my God.

Just ran the latest Icon. 
 

If it verified like that it would be snowing for 36 hrs. 

[A Face like Thunder]

Oh s**t, my wife is due to have her first Covid jab on Tuesday! 

[Spah1]

Delete

Edited January 29, 2021 by Spah1