North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Had Worse]

He poster around 6 days ago.

[itsnowjoke]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

@cheshire snow Can I also have the PM about K A?

Me too please

[itsnowjoke]

Snow not really that important is it when you have a good think about it just hope Day10 and family are all ok if it doesn’t snow but we all are well what’s it really matter 

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Slidergate '17 said:

Rob McElwee was amazing. Francis Wilson on sky also made me chuckle, his delivery was sublime at times.

The very best was Rob and from an era when forecasters were actually allowed to enjoy snow rather than the modern 'at least it will be mild' brigade.

[Chris.R]

About to check the WRF 12 Z.

[cheshire snow]

14 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Snow not really that important is it when you have a good think about it just hope Day10 and family are all ok if it doesn’t snow but we all are well what’s it really matter 

Started his own forum not saying anything else don't want to get in trouble 

C.S

@Its Snow Joke .... Pm you 

[Joe Bloggs]

1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

Well the UKMO has the low quite a bit further north, honestly the snow risk is really secondary and low risk for our region, its the rain we need to watch out for. Might not rain all the time but it will likely to be heavy and persistent. 

I think it's fair to say the Atlantic is back and the SSW will not deliver anything too cold for the UK. 

 

As ever, we’ll see, but a cold westerly often brings a lot of convective snow potential to inland parts of the NW. This often isn’t picked up by the NWP until high res within 48 hours and very often missed in media forecasts. 
 

In a nutshell, if the winds are from the west/NW and the air is cold then expect showers - these can line up and give considerable falls in places, especially if winds fall lighter. 
 

Agree that the rain is a huge worry. 

[toggerob]

I expect the pumps will be fully on the go at Toddbrook over the next few days with the main concern being where to dump all the excess water as the Goyt is already high-up due to snow thaw run-off, for myself it'll be radar & river level monitoring for those in town closer towards the Goyt and Canal.

[itsnowjoke]

20 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Started his own forum not saying anything else don't want to get in trouble 

C.S

@Its Snow Joke .... Pm you 

Not received anything yet 

[Weather-history]

 

UKMO 12z reminds me of 20th December 1993, gave a nice snowfall just before Christmas. Long way off but to show a potential snowfall.

[Joe Bloggs]

Shame Kasim isn’t about (!!!) but Thursday night into Friday morning looks interesting for the NW, especially inland and with altitude. 
 

With low heights and a keen westerly I’d suggest that shower activity may be quite widespread. With a vector like the below many parts of the NW could get showers. Uppers will get colder as the night progresses and dew points look favourable especially further east in the region. 
 

 

Marginal but there is potential.

Plenty of room for upgrades and downgrades. 

[Chris.R]

Wed night

WRF 12 Z is an upgrade again.

North of Liverpool heavy snow now showing 18:00-03:00 and above 150 m it’s more like 15:00–03:00!

South of Liverpool things are delayed a bit heavy snow more like 2100–03:00.

thinking Bury > Rawtenstall > Bacup could be the sweet spot.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Chris.R

[cheshire snow]

17 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Not received anything yet 

try now...

[Chris.R]

I’m starting to take notice of Sunday morning looks like a front in the early morning and no marginality about it. Could be good.

[Weather-history]

ECM 12z run, take the snow depths with a pinch of salt 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I’m starting to take notice of Sunday morning looks like a front in the early morning and no marginality about it. Could be good.

similar to 27-28 Dec 2000, looking at this too

[Frost HoIIow]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

similar to 27-28 Dec 2000, looking at this too

That was a good event for this region, even close to the coast had a covering from what I remember.

 

[Snow free zone]

21 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECM 12z run, take the snow depths with a pinch of salt 

Won't need any salt here ..... it'll all get washed away by the rain

[ItIsGee]

28 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Wed night

WRF 12 Z is an upgrade again.

North of Liverpool heavy snow now showing 18:00-03:00 and above 150 m it’s more like 15:00–03:00!

South of Liverpool things are delayed a bit heavy snow more like 2100–03:00.

thinking Bury > Rawtenstall > Bacup could be the sweet spot.

im just east of bury by 10 min drive and at higher altitude so hopefully.....fingers crossed!

[iand61]

5 hours ago, Ramp said:

I think Calderdale down through Littleborough and Rochdale will be particularly at risk in the prone to flooding places. 

It will certainly test the new flood  defences between Todmorden and Mytholmroyd but a major problem is that they keep the Calder in an unnatural place but do little for keeping the canal in place.

in the Boxing Day floods, much of the flooding in the centre of Todmorden was caused by the canal overflowing and along parts of the Calder Valley, the canal is actually higher than the road and a lot of the housing.

as you say, Littleborough and Rochdale are also looking dicey and up here in the Rossendale Valley, recent events have shown how volatile the Irwell can be so expecting some issues from Bacup down to Manchester/Salford.

all in all, an event is unfolding that could be substantially worse than Boxing Day 2015 and Storm Ciara last February.

stay safe everyone.

[damianslaw]

Would like to know BBC definition of hill snow. It's a term used all the time. It could mean 100m or 600m.. it's a meaningless term and should be binned. 

Looking at the outlook, high chance of snow down to low levels Wednesday night over Lake District. Probably safe bet places 200m, but could get down to 100m or below as coming in the night. Last Thursday the snowline was about 180m.

[Rain Lady]

BBC NWT weather man seemed to show an amber rain extension westwards.  Now area includes areas east of a line Preston - Lancaster, so that's Bowland    Not surprising really.

 

[chicken soup]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Started his own forum not saying anything else don't want to get in trouble 

C.S

@Its Snow Joke .... Pm you 

Can you send it me as well please.. I enjoyed kasims contributions on here. 

[cheshire snow]

2 hours ago, Dexter said:

Where is Rob McElwee when you need him! 

Best presenter ever Always remember a forecast he did in 2010 started of with the words"and the snow just keeps coming" then gave a cheeky wink,he new the net weather snow nuts were watching.

C.S

[A Face like Thunder]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Best presenter ever Always remember a forecast he did in 2010 started of with the words"and the snow just keeps coming" then gave a cheeky wink,he new the net weather snow nuts were watching.

C.S

The BBC Weather has never been the same since Jack Armstrong and Bert Fford disappeared from our screens!