North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Mark_p]

The sun is actually out here. Time to enjoy it before the coming deluge this week. 

[cowdog]

Met office has issued the warning for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - up to 200mm of rain.

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

Quote

A broad area of rainfall will arrive across this region later on Monday and remain across the area for the following 36-48 hours. Rainfall will be heaviest and most persistent across western facing hills. Over the course of this time, 30-60 mm of rainfall is expected to fall widely across the warning area, with the potential for up to 150-200 mm across the regions most exposed hills (most likely across northwest Wales, and northwest England). Across the higher Pennine Hills, there will likely still be significant snowfall laying on Monday. Much of this will melt during this event and may add an additional 5-10 mm quite widely, and as much as 20-30 mm across the highest snow-covered hills. Strong winds will also accompany the rainfall and may add to travelling difficulties across areas higher and more exposed routes.

 

[iand61]

46 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Met office has issued the warning for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - up to 200mm of rain.

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

In old money or in places where the stuff actually falls, that’s a worst case scenario of 2 metres of snow in 3 days.

Chances of 2 cm of snow from it are slimmer than my post Christmas belly but given the sodden ground conditions at the moment, any significant rain is not good and anything close to 200mm is serious stuff for river catchments and those areas prone to flooding.

it will, pardon the pun likely be watered down but something to be aware of and certainly something that warrants an early warning.

question is will we be upgraded to an Amber or does a few cm of snow on a weekend morning when non essential travel isn’t allowed have to forecast for that privilege

[Had Worse]

that will upgrade to an amber

[iand61]

33 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

that will upgrade to an amber

Or downgrade in the amounts expected.

your right though that that would warrant an Amber nearer the time, especially now they set the bar so high with this mornings east Anglian snow warning.

[SnowWatcher2]

Hmmm.. they where  " Way out" with that headline ...

[iand61]

11 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

Hmmm.. they where  " Way out" with that headline ...

Classic
even the BBC website was talking about villages being cut off.

the rest of the world must kicking their sides at what we class as being bad weather

Edited January 16, 2021 by iand61
Spelling

[pip22]

2 hours ago, cowdog said:

Met office has issued the warning for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - up to 200mm of rain.

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

I think weather systems that have tendency to dump big amounts of snow/rain deserves to be named.  Just like systems producing very strong winds.  It both could bring disruption and loss of life.

Edited January 16, 2021 by pip22

[HafrenLMP1]

Having been out for an hour long cycle ride on the local lanes, I had to turn around a couple of times, as the roads were flooded. And plenty of fields were waterlogged/ flooded. Oh for a spell of good dry weather.....not looking likely.

[Chris.R]

Liverpool airport ATIS has been going crazy with high temperatures and information codes missing but back to normal now except QFE is missing.

[Chris.R]

oh no gone crazy again says it’s 18°C with a DP of 15.

I guess they are doing maintenance.

Edited January 16, 2021 by Chris.R

[SnowWatcher2]

Best get my wellies out

[iand61]

So according to the models, the system coming in on Monday is going to dump substantial amounts of rain, possibly record breaking amounts on the western upslopes of the Pennines and yet the front that pushed in last weekend practically ignored the same areas and instead dropped snow on the eastern side instead.

I appreciate that the totals being talked about this time are more to do with the system becoming slow moving rather than the intensity of it but even so, why do the systems behave so differently when hitting the same range of hills.

It’s not so much a moan, just a honest question to those who may have a scientific reason why it happens.

[cheshire snow]

8 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

2.5° and very wet.  Strong wind too, rattled my cat flap all night.

Were is the laughing emoji that will do.

Apologies my sense of humor but your post had me roaring with laughter 

C.S

[captaincroc]

Personally I am loving the current charts....yes, for all our sakes I would prefer less marginal but there is a lot of chances for pop up snow events.  Plus I am hoping we create our own cold pool again so what does fall will stay around a little longer

*Edit* Should have explained why, the polar northwesterly airflow! slack winds, low thicknesses and dew points.

Edited January 16, 2021 by captaincroc

[iand61]

42 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Were is the laughing emoji that will do.

Apologies my sense of humor but your post had me roaring with laughter 

C.S

I had to look a few times this morning before I was sure it didn’t say rattled my flat cap

[Rain Lady]

Overnight hose down with 12.5mm picked at 9am.  It's been a fast thaw. Snow almost gone.  Brooks have been roaring.

Can't thnk where we shall put the heavy midweek rain.  Looks grim.

I've heard rumours this is to be a "named storm" --- does anyone know for sure?

[Rush2019]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Were is the laughing emoji that will do.

Apologies my sense of humor but your post had me roaring with laughter 

C.S

A sense of humour keeps us all chugging along, glad I made you smile.

[iand61]

39 minutes ago, Rain Lady said:

Overnight hose down with 12.5mm picked at 9am.  It's been a fast thaw. Snow almost gone.  Brooks have been roaring.

Can't thnk where we shall put the heavy midweek rain.  Looks grim.

I've heard rumours this is to be a "named storm" --- does anyone know for sure?

Maybe Storm Noah, we might be needing his boatbuilding skills.

[Rain Lady]

4 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Maybe Storm Noah, we might be needing his boatbuilding skills.

Ian - It's unfair.  Always us in these high western upslopes who get clobbered by these big Atlantic storms.  Seriously worsening trend.    The only good thing for us is that the water will flow away.   Hope all down below are getting ready to take to the boats.   Indeed Noah's skills will needed.

 

[Frost HoIIow]

30 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Maybe Storm Noah, we might be needing his boatbuilding skills.

Had a walk earlier and the river Medlock is running a bit high but not too worrysome, probably the snow melt at it's source on the hills & last night's heavy rain. Just glad we're about 20m above the flood plain, been here since the 70s & the house has never flooded. But the ones near Daisy Nook garden centre are really prone to it as the river flows just feet from their doors. This from 2017

 

Edited January 16, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[iand61]

3 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Had a walk earlier and the river Medlock is running a bit high but not too worrysome, probably the snow melt at it's source on the hills & last night's heavy rain. Just glad we're about 20m above the flood plain, been here since the 70s & the house has never flooded. But the ones near Daisy Nook garden centre are really prone to it as the river flows just feet from their doors.

 

As you said probably not helped by snow melt but the ground is absolutely saturated already.

We certainly don’t need to be hearing the favourite news reporter statement of a months rain in 24 hours this week.

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, iand61 said:

So according to the models, the system coming in on Monday is going to dump substantial amounts of rain, possibly record breaking amounts on the western upslopes of the Pennines and yet the front that pushed in last weekend practically ignored the same areas and instead dropped snow on the eastern side instead.

I appreciate that the totals being talked about this time are more to do with the system becoming slow moving rather than the intensity of it but even so, why do the systems behave so differently when hitting the same range of hills.

It’s not so much a moan, just a honest question to those who may have a scientific reason why it happens.

As ever Ian - time will tell.

If we didn't have all this meteorological computer chart  sorcery it would happen anyway.

[Iceaxecrampon]

13 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Had a walk earlier and the river Medlock is running a bit high but not too worrysome, probably the snow melt at it's source on the hills & last night's heavy rain. Just glad we're about 20m above the flood plain, been here since the 70s & the house has never flooded. But the ones near Daisy Nook garden centre are really prone to it as the river flows just feet from their doors. This from 2017

 

Ah - good to see the Garden Centre was open

[Iceaxecrampon]

11 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

2.5° and very wet.  Strong wind too, rattled my cat flap all night.