North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[itsnowjoke]

Pretty wild outside too

[Kasim Awan]

1 hour ago, Ramp said:

In the past (in these kind of set ups) the models often underestimate the cold to the east and small increments west are seen as we get closer to t0. 
 

Kasim, what is the possibility that we could see the stall happen further west and for more of this region to hit the jackpot?

There is a slight risk (25-30%) of advancements westwards enough to bring the low level North West into the mix. A deeper trough & more expansive precipitation area would also push the precipitation further west. Need to watch for these however right now it appears to be a slim chance.

[dodge]

North York Moors looks like being a sweet spot...(Wed/Thurs) many a drive over their on the way to Whitby and I can picture where the accumulations will lie - probably that spot were the hang gliders launch themselves off the hilltops.  Our region as a whole may have to sit out the wintry hopes until next week.

[SnowWatcher2]

 looks to be an interesting watch

[iand61]

31 minutes ago, dodge said:

North York Moors looks like being a sweet spot...(Wed/Thurs) many a drive over their on the way to Whitby and I can picture where the accumulations will lie - probably that spot were the hang gliders launch themselves off the hilltops.  Our region as a whole may have to sit out the wintry hopes until next week.

Essential exercise or is your local chippy closed

[damianslaw]

On 09/01/2021 at 17:24, Joe Snow said:

 

Wednesday will as always the case in these set ups be a nowcast. There have been a time when fronts have struggled to make it east against a cold block, likewise times when they move east swiftly. What I'm not seeing is any switch in wind direction behind the front, so nothing to really move it forwards. Indeed it is increasingly looking like a staller, with a secondary wave development. All fine margins. I'm not liking the sound of freezing rain for the far SW part of the warning area which currently includes me, I'd rather have just rain than freezing rain worse of both worlds. 

Evaporative cooling will be much in evidence especially given the precipitation will be heavy. We've had similar set ups in April deliver heavy snow here, the light SE offshore flow helps.

Alas the fells should see significant amounts whatever happens.

Edited January 11, 2021 by damianslaw

[carl1980]

Pouring down

[SnowWatcher2]

18Z GFS not looking so good for our area.. hope its wrong  

[farmans]

39 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

18Z GFS not looking so good for our area.. hope its wrong  

18z Para looks better though and an interesting 72hr Fax chart!

[jam2010]

Amazing how the rain finds us so easy but snow does not! 

[damianslaw]

BBC seem more bullish than Met Office forecast with the front moving through further east more quickly.

Remember back to Friday and how poor both were in the track of the band of snow, showed it far south it never made it south of Birmingham..all caught out.

[iand61]

Tomorrow’s snow chances are looking pretty poor for the region if this mornings TV forecast is to be believed.

plenty of rain on offer but snow seems to be reserved for the North East of England and more likely, the East of Scotland.

Always chances of an upgrade but I wouldn’t put my last fiver on anything meaningful for our part of the world, certainly at the heights that most people live at.

[captaincroc]

2 hours ago, iand61 said:

Tomorrow’s snow chances are looking pretty poor for the region if this mornings TV forecast is to be believed.

plenty of rain on offer but snow seems to be reserved for the North East of England and more likely, the East of Scotland.

Always chances of an upgrade but I wouldn’t put my last fiver on anything meaningful for our part of the world, certainly at the heights that most people live at.

Apparently the new Fax charts have it a lot further west... (not sure how you find the old ones to compare)

Kasim might know more... the TV forecasts always have a slight delay catching up just due to production time etc, so who knows?

Edited January 12, 2021 by captaincroc

[severe snowstorm]

Euro 4 shows the stall line to be over Central Scotland down through North East England tomorrow so just too far East. Some snow risk showing early on but then just showing heavy rain, even higher up in the region. It's only one model though and things can still change. Looks likes higher parts further East in the region have a small chance, but can't see real snow chances moving further West and lower down than that at this stage.

 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Dexter

[severe snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Apparently the new Fax charts have it a lot further west... (not sure how you find the old ones to compare)

Kasim might know more... the TV forecasts always have a slight delay catching up just due to production time etc, so who knows?

That's an upgrade for sure and would bring a lot of the region into the firing line. Will be interesting to see the next model updates as current Euro 4 not interested.

[captaincroc]

Just now, Dexter said:

That's an upgrade for sure and would bring a lot of the region into the firing line. Will be interesting to see the next model updates as current Euro 4 not interested.

Obviously a lot of this - from me - is hopecasting but it's happened to us many times where we were in the firing line...even on the day...and it stalled further west.  If the Fax charts have shifted west then they must have something we can't see that has that as the case. So who knows? Fingers crossed

[severe snowstorm]

10 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Obviously a lot of this - from me - is hopecasting but it's happened to us many times where we were in the firing line...even on the day...and it stalled further west.  If the Fax charts have shifted west then they must have something we can't see that has that as the case. So who knows? Fingers crossed

The fax charts have human intervention so it's a big positive as far as I can see, so I agree, there must surely have been a change on the most recent models that we can't see yet. We need to be careful what we wish for as the whole thing could end up missing us altogether and stall out West if these upgrades continue!

Edited January 12, 2021 by Dexter

[frosty ground]

25 minutes ago, Dexter said:

The fax charts have human intervention so it's a big positive as far as I can see, so I agree, there must surely have been a change on the most recent models that we can't see yet. We need to be careful what we wish for as the whole thing could end up missing us altogether and stall out West if these upgrades continue!

Not sure we have to worry about westward corrects, can see this sitting on the coast of England for a while.

A day of heavy rain is forecast for me, Yuck

[A Face like Thunder]

A nice morning after heavy overnight rain. Let's enjoy it whilst we can! 

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS is a really big downgrade from 00z to 06z for this weekend.

Still banking on the 19th to 21st as per ensemble output.

[frosty ground]

Met warning extended slightly south and snow amounts have been reduced no westward correction

[severe snowstorm]

Yes, no significant change to the warning apart from a slight reduction in snow amounts. Euro 4 update still showing similar progression Eastwards as well. Will be interesting to see how it pans out anyway.

[Frost HoIIow]

Can't see there being any snow here tomorrow - just too far south on this occasion it would seem. More of a chance across east Cumbria though. Places like Penrith could be in a good position again.

[dodge]

Jeez... heavy rain graphics showing 14:00 Wed - 17:00 Thurs (15hrs non-stop) not once going below 75% probability... is it really going to be that wet?  Apps overcooking it again?  Today...undoubtedly the best day of the week (we only get one!) sunny, cold and dry.

Edited January 12, 2021 by dodge

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, dodge said:

Jeez... heavy rain graphics showing 14:00 Wed - 17:00 Thurs (15hrs non-stop) not once going below 75% probability... is it really going to be that wet?  Apps overcooking it again?  Today...undoubtedly the best day of the week (we only get one!) sunny, cold and dry.

Met office App has Sleet for Moorside all day Wednesday and Thursday, Heavy rain vs Heavy sleet (lose lose)