North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Had Worse]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

To be fair, on this occasion the moderator left an arbitrary comment at him without any context.

I think i missed part of it, things got deleted rather quickly before id caught up.

Was part listening to Newport equalise against Brighton.

 

Anyway... your thoughts on Wed, Thur and Fri?

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I think i missed part of it, things got deleted rather quickly before id caught up.

Was part listening to Newport equalise against Brighton.

 

Anyway... your thoughts on Wed, Thur and Fri?

The issue here is upper air temperatures. These by enlarge will be too high to support snow 

Whilst the surface remains <0 for the Peaks

 

In theory some transient hill snow is certainly possible on Wednesday, before it tracks west & south on Thu. On Thu a core of slightly lower 850T temps does pose some interest - especially early on Thursday where parameters are largely conducive for a short period - could produce some snow to lower levels e.g. Yorkshire area. 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

The issue here is upper air temperatures. These by enlarge will be too high to support snow 

Whilst the surface remains <0 for the Peaks

 

In theory some transient hill snow is certainly possible on Wednesday, before it tracks west & south on Thu. On Thu a core of slightly lower 850T temps does pose some interest - especially early on Thursday where parameters are largely conducive for a short period - could produce some snow to lower levels e.g. Yorkshire area. 

Thanks.

 

Its a fine line and given the volatile nature of the models, we might get lucky.

[Kasim Awan]

The current alignment of the system brings in a warm sector into most of our region, this phased out as per the uppers east of Manchester, 

[Had Worse]

Keeping a close eye on things at the moment.

Wife is community nurse and she hates snow.

Duty of care requires contact with patient come hell or high water (Snow)

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Keeping a close eye on things at the moment.

Wife is community nurse and she hates snow.

Duty of care requires contact with patient come hell or high water (Snow)

Ah I see, well hopefully transport isn't an issue and from that perspective snow isn't so good a thing. I have winter tyres fitted, even a 4x4 is a waste of time if summer tyres. 

[damianslaw]

Keeping a close eye on frontal feature Wednesday early hours, current forecast suggests snow for modest levels here, before temps rise, but if the front stalls we could see a bit of a wintry surprise down to low levels. All very marginal but these are the kind of set ups that bring the greatest surprise. Looks like it will have quite a bit of intensity which will help to aid evaporative cooling. 

[Had Worse]

JFF at this stage.

[Joe Snow]

Raining heavily - something that unlike snow never fails to miss us! ️  Still a chance of late month cold spell shaping up on the models but it’s all just noise at this stage. Wednesdays system could also deliver some heavy hill sleet/ snow to the peaks and Pennines main wintry action will be to the east of us though - Met Office Warnings already out for east of the Pennines usual areas seem to be in potentially for another good fall of snow there. 

[captaincroc]

3 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Raining heavily - something that unlike snow never fails to miss us! ️  Still a chance of late month cold spell shaping up on the models but it’s all just noise at this stage. Wednesdays system could also deliver some heavy hill sleet/ snow to the peaks and Pennines main wintry action will be to the east of us though - Met Office Warnings already out for east of the Pennines usual areas seem to be in potentially for another good fall of snow there. 

I was thinking that literally everytime a front is meant to stall on us it ALWAYS stalls just to our west...so history repeating, I am hoping that this will be the case for midweek's potential snow risk as we move forward.

[Joe Snow]

5 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I was thinking that literally everytime a front is meant to stall on us it ALWAYS stalls just to our west...so history repeating, I am hoping that this will be the case for midweek's potential snow risk as we move forward.

Think it’ll be cold rain for many at low levels this side of the Pennines sadly although the risk of sleet and wet snow for the Peaks and Pennines is definitely there most of the wintry potential looks to be Yorkshire and into the NE. 
Fingers crossed we are well placed for a snowy battleground scenario late month. Europe looks like going into the freezer with the UK on the edges ️ 

[Kasim Awan]

I'm afraid so yes, the upper air isotherms are largely straddled across the East of the region so most stay slightly too mild above. That being said, those ENE of say Buxton have a decent chance of something wintry late Thursday & into Friday & potentially very significant locally on the hills. This needs to be watched - shifts westwards would produce quite a significant risk for more of the area etc. 

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'm afraid so yes, the upper air isotherms are largely straddled across the East of the region so most stay slightly too mild above. That being said, those ENE of say Buxton have a decent chance of something wintry late Thursday & into Friday & potentially very significant locally on the hills. This needs to be watched - shifts westwards would produce quite a significant risk for more of the area etc. 

Cheers Kasim for you input. Obviously I am totally hopecasting here, it's just I've lost count the amount of times we were due to get clobbered - and even being in the middle of the warning area - just to see it stall on the radar , so was hoping this could be the case this week.

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Cheers Kasim for you input. Obviously I am totally hopecasting here, it's just I've lost count the amount of times we were due to get clobbered - and even being in the middle of the warning area - just to see it stall on the radar , so was hoping this could be the case this week.

It's a very difficult forecast and will probably come down to nowcasting. The ingredients are definitely there for significant snowfall further west, further westwards adjustments on the wave on Thursday evening are needed. These systems to have a tendency to develop differently last minute. 

[damianslaw]

Met Office warning suggests possible heavy amounts of snow modest levels just 150m, up to 30 cms.. this front on Wednesday has some oomph to it. Question is where will it end up, will it move through quick, or stall, may even be further west.. those in NE England look prime candidate for long lasting heavy snow, the SE onshore flow will be good for here.. indeed these are the set ups they can deliver significant snow here.

Will be a nowcast, very marginal..

[frosty ground]

33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Met Office warning suggests possible heavy amounts of snow modest levels just 150m, up to 30 cms.. this front on Wednesday has some oomph to it. Question is where will it end up, will it move through quick, or stall, may even be further west.. those in NE England look prime candidate for long lasting heavy snow, the SE onshore flow will be good for here.. indeed these are the set ups they can deliver significant snow here.

Will be a nowcast, very marginal..

Met APP for my location (outside the warning area) has the even starting as light snow > Sleet > Heavy Rain > Sleet then finishing as Light snow.

Any correction east and its just rain and correction west and we could see a big surprise. 

I'd rather be further east at this point thou.

[Had Worse]

Exciting for us model watchers but a real headache for the Met office and the public services.

[Frost HoIIow]

On the thermometer it's certainly milder than of late but under the cloud, rain and breeze it certainly hasn't felt like it today. Would much rather have sunny frosty weather than this. Tomorrow looking better in that respect

[Its snowing]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Met Office warning suggests possible heavy amounts of snow modest levels just 150m, up to 30 cms.

That is what dreams are made of...fingers crossed this happens.

[dodge]

Have we actually had any daylight today?  Doesn't feel like it... a persistent spell of drizzle from the word go (doesn't look much on the radar) now quickly being chased by a heavier spell of rain marching in from the west.  Bleak day. 

Think I'll be too far west for any wintry stuff from Wednesday onwards and the met warning reflects this, but I expect those to the east/north east might get lucky at some point.

[SnowWatcher2]

Our dreams best not go south

[The Northern Ramper]

In the past (in these kind of set ups) the models often underestimate the cold to the east and small increments west are seen as we get closer to t0. 
 

Kasim, what is the possibility that we could see the stall happen further west and for more of this region to hit the jackpot?

[More Runs Needed]

1 hour ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

Our dreams best not go south

They always do... 

[iand61]

The warning area goes right through the middle of my house so given that the driveway is to the north east and a few metres higher than the bottom of the back garden, I better make sure that the snow shovel is left out the front

Never mind, still time for a correction West, a couple of hundred metres will do

[itsnowjoke]

Doesn’t look good just watched the forecast rain to snow but it doesn’t seem to happen till it’s well past our region so the east of England look to do well but what do I know