North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Selfishly I need it 50 miles further north but good to see interest at such short notice.

Yeah, here's hoping it expands, it's only just been modelled. Maybe Kasim knows more as to why it has popped up.

[dodge]

Could work in our favour for once to be quite well inland from the east as it's showing mostly rain/sleet for eastern areas turning more wintry as it moves in land.  Just a case of the precipitation holding it's momentum on it's journey here.  Might be a snizzle/pellets scenario.

[iand61]

Plenty of showers running into NE England but at the moment the feed is to much of a Northerly to push them inland.

Hopefully it will turn more Easterly and add some interest for this region.

[Pendlesnow]

Well in the east of the county we just had a light rain shower push through

[captaincroc]

3 minutes ago, Pendlesnow said:

Well in the east of the county we just had a light rain shower push through

Same here, foggy with light rain and a very slow thaw?! Shocked if I'm honest as thought especially being over night it would be snow and hover around freezing. Weird.

[A Face like Thunder]

Another bright morning here in the south of the region and no sign of the ice of Wednesday morning.

[The Northern Ramper]

Cold here, grey skies and a sprinkling of snow dust left on surfaces from last nights midnight shower.

Happy new year everyone.

[Rush2019]

Poked my head out the back door about 2 am, I could feel a very delicate drizzle.  Just damp outside at the moment, any remaining patches of snow are clinging on for dear life. 3° according to my garden thermometer. I wonder what weather records will be broken this year. Will the North west steal all the thunder events again?  That whole week mid June was fantastic, as was the supercell that hit Manchester that same week.  Macc finally getting it's fantastic thunderstorm on Aug 11th.  More of the same this year please.

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, captaincroc said:

Looking at the precipitation Hi-Res Models...spotted this little feature only 40 hours away...

 

Yes it's projected to only touch parts of the region but could always expand or squeak further north.  Definitely something to keep an eye on.

 

Nice spot. Game on

[Spah1]

no melt yet today 

[captaincroc]

Well the drizzle has turned into snizzle which is a bonus I suppose. 

[Spah1]

[itsnowjoke]

This snizzle is melting my snow

[iand61]

A few piccies from this mornings “essential exercise” walk.

[Iceaxecrampon]

51 minutes ago, iand61 said:

A few piccies from this mornings “essential exercise” walk.

Good first Sun image  

Same here but our usual route through the frozen Boglands of the lowland Tundra. Just make out the snow  capped   Fairsnape Fell. 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

Mildest day for a while here currently 3.7C. Won't last though. Looks we'll be struggling to get much above freezing tomorrow.

 

[frosty ground]

Just now, Frost HoIIow said:

Mildest day for a while here currently 3.7C. Won't last though. Looks we'll be struggling to get much above freezing tomorrow.

 

Yep hitting a dizzy 2.5 up here and the temps is dropping now 1.5 slow thaw of lying snow which after 3 days has almost gone. Not bad for 1-2 inches of snow .

[itsnowjoke]

Yes quite milder today 

[Weather-history]

Looks like clearer skies are moving down from the north. 

[Kasim Awan]

Eastern parts of the region may fair ok with the upcoming easterly. Winds are strong enough to carry the showers onto the Pennines, with dew points and uppers largely conducive for sleet / snow especially above 200m. Difficult to say how much at this stage however given the current modelling I would favour East of the A523, East of the M60 and east of the M66 for the chance of a few cm locally. Due to elevation & distance to coast this usually is the magic snow line in mediocre easterlies. Flurries west localized cm. Troughs are also a potential in this flow & as early as Sunday afternoon a feature is appearing on some output. At present this has some potential for a couple cm south tho it's tough to make a call on this. 

The showery feed gets going Sunday night though marginal below 250m with scattered sleety showers in the east with a slight inversion. Parameters improve into Monday and the snow potential looks slightly more interesting especially for the east areas noted above, certainly if uppers drop below -7 for a considerable time with this flow 1-3cm above 100m in the East with a scattered 0.5 to 2cm in the West would be a reasonable figure. Maybe quite significantly more on higher ground of the Pennines.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[damianslaw]

 

 

5 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

 

Much milder today, nearly 5 degrees. No ice about. Sunny spells again. This is turning into a very sunny period for the time of year, not complaining.

Last night no snow, indeed not much precipitation at all, everything fell apart. 

Not much change in the days ahead, staying cold, possible wintry showers for some, and further frost. May be sudden trough development in the easterly flow that pops up to enable more sustained precipitation. All in all very reasonable agreeable conditions for early January.

Edited January 1, 2021 by damianslaw

[Joe Bloggs]

^^^^^^ 

Again another smashing post Kasim.

My line for convective easterlies in southern Greater Manchester is the A5103 Princess Parkway. Areas to the east of this did better than the west in the Feb 2018 BFTE. 4 Heatons/Reddish notably more snow than Whalley Range/Chorlton for example. There was an ok covering here in Withington with minor drifting (see pics)

As you say this one is significantly less potent and it wouldn’t surprise me if settling snow is reserved for higher parts but we’ll see. Brilliant to be even talking about potential for yet more snow regardless. 

[Winter Hill]

Rapid thaw of the laying snow today 

[Kasim Awan]

21 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

^^^^^^ 

Again another smashing post Kasim.

My line for convective easterlies in southern Greater Manchester is the A5103 Princess Parkway. Areas to the east of this did better than the west in the Feb 2018 BFTE. 4 Heatons/Reddish notably more snow than Whalley Range/Chorlton for example. There was an ok covering here in Withington with minor drifting (see pics)

As you say this one is significantly less potent and it wouldn’t surprise me if settling snow is reserved for higher parts but we’ll see. Brilliant to be even talking about potential for yet more snow regardless. 

Aye, the showers rapidly decayed over West Lancashire, Greater Manchester and Central Cheshire which produced a sharp precipitation intensity gradient & therefore a sharp accumulation gradient. Usually showers are carried further west but the ESE component prevented that. 

The sharp gradient was related to the Pennines which sent the showers into the rapidly decaying phase. Nonetheless the continued shower activity produced noteworthy accumulations east of the M60.

Glossop 14cm, Denton 9cm, Gorton 7cm, Fallowfield 5cm etc.

[Winter Hill]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Aye, the showers rapidly decayed over West Lancashire, Greater Manchester and Central Cheshire which produced a sharp precipitation intensity gradient & therefore a sharp accumulation gradient. Usually showers are carried further west but the ESE component prevented that. 

The sharp gradient was related to the Pennines which sent the showers into the rapidly decaying phase. Nonetheless the continued shower activity produced noteworthy accumulations east of the M60.

Glossop 14cm, Denton 9cm, Gorton 7cm, Fallowfield 5cm etc.

I’ve had some very good snowfall from an Easterly, but like you say, the showers rapidly die a death as they get to my location. Once the showers get to the Bolton area they almost fizzle out when heading to the Wigan area to my west.