North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[iand61]

Off topic but moving into Tier 4 at midnight means that someone has decided to set off all tomorrow’s fireworks a day early.

I don’t think they realise that it was still as much an unacceptable thing to do in Tier 3 as it will be in 4.

[Spurry]

Currently registering -4.5c outside, not sure it would meet official regulations, but regardless it's cold

Edited December 30, 2020 by Spurry

[Mark.C]

Quite an intense tiny shower been on the radar last few frames between IOM  and Cumbria, zoomed in there’s a tiny pink speck, so is this saying that the more intense the shower there’s more likely to be a bit of snow in them? 

[WillinGlossop]

Fog cleared -2c saw bright moon shining now clouded over... icy 

[captaincroc]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

There is a slight signal for a streamer of showers to form around Southport and head south east into the easlrly hours. It's development depends on how fast the trough pulls south, too fast and it wont develop a good structure. A nowcast I feel, and the added complication of a nasty warm slice above which is currently producing a bit of fog.

I bloody love posts like this!! Thanks so much mate, helps me understand and learn a bit more.  Really appreciate you taking the time to answer.

 

I got back early afternoon from Keswick back to my house on the Staffordshire border...the snow is pretty insane up here considering what was forecast. The drive south on the M6 was interesting weather wise.  Snow appeared out of nowhere at Junction 26, last til 24...fizzled out by 22....then was left with scaps of snow until junction 19 and BAM, shedloads again, then as I heading to 16 (where I pull off), it lessened.  Soon as I left the M6 and headed up my hill the snow just appeared at the side of the road and as I got to the top it was like a winter wonderland. Yes lots had thawed off the road etc but not bad going for 2 days of thaw...

 

Cheeky snow shower incoming...

[Chris.R]

-0.1°C here now, -1.0°C in Crosby.

[cheshire snow]

Both LPL and Man airport tafs just updated both now showing snow showers  from 3am

C.S

Why does it say at top of the page I started this thread?

Edited December 30, 2020 by cheshire snow
my fat fingers spelling.

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Both LPL and Man airport tafs just updated both now showing snow showers  from 3am

C.S

Why does it say at top of the page I started this thread?

That's great news buddy as they will have the latest information.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Both LPL and Man airport tafs just updated both now showing snow showers  from 3am

C.S

Why does it say at top of the page I started this thread?

you did according to mine, why who did?

[Joe Bloggs]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

This frame from the Euro4 sums it up quite well I feel. Slow moving moderate showers with potential for a couple cm inland locally where showers align nicely maybe Moreacombe bay down to Chorley or Southport / Sefton into EGCC. Note this is not a definitive streamer prediction just some ideas. This plauged by a layer of 1C temps at 400-900ft west of Manchester. So a "mixture" to the coast. 

So good to have someone with such strong local knowledge posting here.

I’m a geek so I also know where EGCC refers to.  

[WillinGlossop]

I’m confused as I’ve never seen beeb forecast preempt any model runs in hinting at streamer whilst I’ve lived up here (7 years)   Still willing to be suprised... -2c and moon out again 

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, captaincroc said:

That's great news buddy as they will have the latest information.

Yes agrees with what I posted earlier about the warnings for our night shift workers and snow clearance teams.

C.S

[More Runs Needed]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Both LPL and Man airport tafs just updated both now showing snow showers  from 3am

C.S

Why does it say at top of the page I started this thread?

Because your post is the first of the thread maybe? A chunk was moved from the old thread to the new one

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

you did according to mine, why who did?

no idea definitely not me

C.S

[Joe Bloggs]

4 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

I’m confused as I’ve never seen beeb forecast preempt any model runs in hinting at streamer whilst I’ve lived up here (7 years)   Still willing to be suprised... -2c and moon out again 

It’s useful to know where these apps get their data from. 
 

Since the MetO stopped being the primary provider for the BBC’s weather data, the BBC app now sources their hourly forecasts from the ECM ensemble data (EPS). The MetO app uses a combination of MOGREPS and the UKV. 
 

So it is the ECM ensemble data which is picking up on this streamer - which is unusual as normally it completely misses shower potential whereas the MetO is more on the ball. 

[WillinGlossop]

5 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

It’s useful to know where these apps get their data from. 
 

Since the MetO stopped being the primary provider for the BBC’s weather data, the BBC app now sources their hourly forecasts from the ECM ensemble data (EPS). The MetO app uses a combination of MOGREPS and the UKV. 
 

So it is the ECM ensemble data which is picking up on this streamer - which is unusual as normally it completely misses shower potential whereas the MetO is more on the ball. 

Cheers... exactly ecm and gfs are usually poor at picking up on streamers but euro or icon are better but nothing from the latter... beeb/ecm icons on bbc had nothing night before yesterday for snow but graphics (bbc) did though... everything with online forecasts including netweather local seem out by a mile at the moment... 

Edited December 30, 2020 by WillinGlossop

[cheshire snow]

Well thats me done up at 5am for a 6am start hope to wake to some snow falling if not its all @Kasim Awanfault

night all

C.S

[Borei]

Freezing fog, -1.8c.

Very little snow melt today so still about 5cms on the ground.

 

[Barmada_Casten]

Still not feeling any excitement regarding any future weather. It will be cold and dry but generally no significant snow any time soon, sorry. (Awaiting childish emojis and replies from the children.)

[damianslaw]

Cold today, maxed out below 2 degrees, temps fell below freezing around 5pm. Pity we don't have any snow cover, much colder minima would be on the cards. Alas we are returning means close to if not just below freezing. 

Snow prospects overnight and tomorrow very uncertain. The frontal feature moving down from Scotland looks like breaking up somewhat, but could bring something here. Chance of something overnight as well. I'd be happy with just a cm.

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Still not feeling any excitement regarding any future weather. It will be cold and dry but generally no significant snow any time soon, sorry. (Awaiting childish emojis and replies from the children.)

Was going to bed but need to reply to this.

Your 1st sentence IMO all depends if we benefit from the SSW which is now going to happen in the next 5 days I believe

2nd sentence spot on we will loose the showers after Friday as the flow swings NE then East ( but not a cold Easterly)

Lastly don't wish it upon yourself you have your own opinion and thats fine its good to have debate without childish insults and stupid emojis I  am sure if we benefit from the SSW and it turns significantly colder you will be posting happy posts 

Now I need my sleep 

Goodnight All

C.S

[Geordiesnow]

15 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Still not feeling any excitement regarding any future weather. It will be cold and dry but generally no significant snow any time soon, sorry. (Awaiting childish emojis and replies from the children.)

In fairness, I take cold and frosty weather over the mild and wet stuff anytime. It was nice too see a sharp white frost which did not lift out of some surfaces all day and long sunny spells to boot. 

As for tonight, I guess it only takes one snow shower to produce something and it should stick given how cold the ground is. Will I see any evidence of overnight snow round here, I doubt it but I can keep hoping. 

[Barmada_Casten]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Was going to bed but need to reply to this.

Your 1st sentence IMO all depends if we benefit from the SSW which is now going to happen in the next 5 days I believe

2nd sentence spot on we will loose the showers after Friday as the flow swings NE then East ( but not a cold Easterly)

Lastly don't wish it upon yourself you have your own opinion and thats fine its good to have debate without childish insults and stupid emojis I  am sure if we benefit from the SSW and it turns significantly colder you will be posting happy posts 

Now I need my sleep 

Goodnight All

C.S

Don’t let me keep you up please. I have suffered a lot of personal abuse and borderline bullying, especially in the early days when I originally joined the forum in 2003 purely because I am not a snow ramper. My predictions and forecasts are generally accurate, and a large part of that is based on experience when trying to predict snowfall. The quality of the posts on model thread forum in particular has dwindled over the last few years in particular and far too many members are in fantasy land. IMO only a select few people should post on there and they should be vetted beforehand using a points system. This will filter out the **** is posted on there. There should also be an age verification for all members as the average badge of a lot of members seems to be around 13. Anyway have a good sleep xx

[jam2010]

It will probably snow and stick as im having an early night and working tomorrow.

Fingers crossed some crazy streamer sets up when we are all fast asleep. 

[carl1980]

-2.1°c couple of degrees lower than forecast