North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Day 10]

12 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

My girlfriend just went to work on the Wirral and told me that there has definitely been some snow in town possibly 1 centimetre although now melting and reported ice pellets on the Wirral.

Shopping in Bromborough, nothing here. 

[Backtrack]

Snowing here, much to my surprise!

[Backtrack]

Shower died overhead. Looked like a real beefcake on the radar. It gave a few flakes, a bit of hail and then that’s it?!

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Shopping in Bromborough, nothing here. 

Ice pellets in Woodchurch. Nothing here either just rain but don’t give up mate I’m still optimistic for tonight.

[itsnowjoke]

Suns out now

[Geordiesnow]

Must say I'm happy to avoid those showers, keeps the white frost around longer which is usually as wintry as its gets here!

As for snow potential, what a mess it has become, original forecast seemed fairly simple of a band of PPN with mostly snow on it coming down from the north but sadly turning to rain eventually yet now it looks alot more scattered with reduced snow potential although again if you start with snow, very likely it will turn to rain.

[Spah1]

Raining !!! Crap

[Chris.R]

I think right side of marginal everywhere east of a line: Burscough, Kirkby, Huyton, Aigburth, Bromborough, Hooton. West of that it’s a nowcast.

Wind is  WSW overnight so the Wirral will provide some extra land fetch

[cheshire snow]

Wish we could have a moaning thread attached to the regional thread.

So what if it does or doesn't snow its not the end of the world.

C.S

[Alexis]

10 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Must say I'm happy to avoid those showers, keeps the white frost around longer which is usually as wintry as its gets here!

As for snow potential, what a mess it has become, original forecast seemed fairly simple of a band of PPN with mostly snow on it coming down from the north but sadly turning to rain eventually yet now it looks alot more scattered with reduced snow potential although again if you start with snow, very likely it will turn to rain.

Original forecast was dry all week so a few places have done very well. Third day of snow on the ground where I am today, near Wigan.

[Chris.R]

How about a new thread anyway it’s 150 pages now?

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Original forecast was dry all week so a few places have done very well. Third day of snow on the ground where I am today, near Wigan.

Yep no complaints here. Still have some lying snow in Withington and I’m impressed how much cover there is down the A34 towards Cheadle. 

[Mark_p]

Still foggy here, snow on the ground still, very icy conditions treacherous under foot away from gritted main roads. 

[Joe Bloggs]

15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Must say I'm happy to avoid those showers, keeps the white frost around longer which is usually as wintry as its gets here!

As for snow potential, what a mess it has become, original forecast seemed fairly simple of a band of PPN with mostly snow on it coming down from the north but sadly turning to rain eventually yet now it looks alot more scattered with reduced snow potential although again if you start with snow, very likely it will turn to rain.

But 2 nights running some areas in the south of the region have done better than forecast and received more snow when very little or none was forecast. 

[Backtrack]

Does anyone have any radar screenshots from December 2010? The big event? Perhaps @Weather-history

also, yes, new thread please mods! @damianslaw

[Mark_p]

Interesting outside for near 1 in the afternoon so slippy. 

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Does anyone have any radar screenshots from December 2010? The big event? Perhaps @Weather-history

also, yes, new thread please mods! @damianslaw

Have a look at your forecast on the BBC website probably be gone in an hour but wow probably why the Meto say heaviest of the sleet-snow in the south of the region 

C.S

[Joe Bloggs]

6z EURO4 has removed most snow potential for tonight sadly.. a few showers around 7/8am tomorrow though .

Tonight’s potential seems to be evaporating but maybe not all is lost - will be interesting to hear from Kasim later. 

[Joe Bloggs]

4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Have a look at your forecast on the BBC website probably be gone in an hour but wow probably why the Meto say heaviest of the sleet-snow in the south of the region 

C.S

I think those forecasts are based on the EPS which must still have a snow signal for tonight. 

[severe snowstorm]

Heavy snow shower here at the moment. Massive flakes!

[Kasim Awan]

Good afternoon all. Slight adjustments to tonight's weather. The trough has shifted circa 80 miles west which has shunted the initial persistent front west & left us in a light westerly flow. Through the early hours this is likely to produce significant shower activity in the region producing a scattered 1-3cm east of the coast. Rain, hail / sleet (30% risk of it being snow) up to coast & sleet wet snow up to the M6 and snow / graupel east of the M6 between 2 and 10am room for adjustments. These showers likely to develop south of Moreacombe bay, develop around St Annes / Liverpool & head into Mcr / Cheshire. Again showers so usual caveats apply, and it's possible these could remain south of Greater Manchester. There is a chance these could become more organized for a time & so locally 3-6cm can't be ruled out east of the A49.

Then interest turns to early hours Friday for a weak front which will turn sleety later on as the snow level rises to 350-400m later Friday. A scattered 1-2cm possible from this atm, this may increase to 3-5cm to the hills in the east if the front backbuilds as per GFS.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Heavy snow shower here at the moment. Massive flakes!

Looks like the warm layer is mixed out east of the A49. So you can see why inland there's some potential for tonight.

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Heavy snow shower here at the moment. Massive flakes!

At work mate so cannot enjoy Irish sea is springing into life enjoy

C.S

[The Northern Ramper]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Good afternoon all. Slight adjustments to tonight's weather. The trough has shifted circa 80 miles west which has shunted the initial persistent from west & left us in a light westerly flow. Through the early hours this is likely to produce significant shower activity in the region producing a scattered 1-3m east of the coast. Rain, hail / sleet coast & sleet wet snow up to the M6 and snow / graupel east of the M6 between 2 and 10am room for adjustments. These  showers likely to develop south of Moreacombe bay, develop around St Annes / Liverpool & head into Mcr / Cheshire. Again showers so usual caveats apply, however there is a chance these could become more organized for a time & so locally 3-6cm can't be ruled out.

Then interest turns to early hours Friday for a weak front which will turn sleety later on as the snow level rises to 350-400m later Friday. A scattered 1-2cm possible from this atm, this may increase to 3-5cm to the hills in the east if the front backbuilds as per GFS.

 

 

1-3 metres

[Geordiesnow]

28 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

But 2 nights running some areas in the south of the region have done better than forecast and received more snow when very little or none was forecast. 

Well the 2nd event yes that was more of a surprise you could say and was not originally forecast but did eventually get mentioned by the TV forecasts.

The event on Sunday night into Monday was well modelled beforehand and offered the best chance for snow. Question was going to be how far east was the PPN going to get but with very low thicknesses and no wind, it did offer very favourable snow conditions.