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Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Dec 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

    I'm glad we agree on something mate 🤣 

    😂😂 me too! Nothing wrong with a bit of passion and different view points!

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    Sorry guys. My mums still in a really bad way. I just wanted to post to quickly say tonight in my opinin is being underestimated. The trend today has been to keep the front as all snow

    Around 50cm has fallen across the highest parts of the North York Moors yesterday. Went for a walk this morning at Newgate Bank. Around 30cm of fresh powdery snow underfoot and quite difficult to

    Last one from me, great day...just stopped now so 11 hours of snow 👍👏👏 Hope those that missed out get some soon 🤞👍  

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    😂😂 me too! Nothing wrong with a bit of passion and different view points!

    Funny thing is after all the disagreement I've realised we have all reached pretty much the same conclusion tomorrow, but just arrived there in a different way 😆😆. Albeit slightly different expected snow totals 🙂 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Funny thing is after all the disagreement I've realised we have all reached pretty much the same conclusion tomorrow, but just arrived there in a different way 😆😆. Albeit slightly different expected snow totals 🙂 

     

    Yeah i know hahahaha mis reading each others views clearly!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Just checked gfs 12z, if only!

    GFSOPEU12_312_2.png

    If youve seen the met vid.

    This is identical to what they have called

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL

    Do I dare mention Saturdays snow potential?? 🤣🤣🤣

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    2 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

    It is possible to make a snow forecast, one has to just be aware of the uncertainties involved and communicate them. Failure to communicate and identify the risks involved imo carry more weight & potential responsibility afterwards. It's always worth giving a fair probabilistic view than remaining glued to the fence. With that in mind, the below is my post in the Mod thread I have had a request to post on here.

    Yes, you effectively covered my point about the uncertainty as all the unorganized precip will do is prevent the ground environment below 200 metres (which is where there is marginality) from being conducive.

    Given the projection of a well defined area of precipitation tomorrow, the outcome of some snow to lower levels producing a lowland area of snow maybe no greater than 5-25,000km^2 (up to 10% of the UK) with accumulations of 1-6cm in the favored stretch is fairly high in confidence. Of course, there are mechanisms which increase snow with altitude (orographic lift, lower temperatures, lower ground temperatures), and this means locally 20cm+ is possible for somewhere like Queensbury tomorrow. This is most favoured to occur across West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Notts, Derbs, into the North & East Midlands before moving towards the home counties. Even in this situation, there will be marginality on the north, south, west and eastern side of the snow area which will all result from slightly different thermodynamic mechanisms. North & east - lack of evap cooling. West -Fohen effect, lack of evap cooling. South - lack of cold air and low dew point injection from east. Defining which areas will see this is very uncertain and is down to nowcasting, however this does not take away or limit the main precip area evap cooling derived snow from verifying.

    A strong consensus (70%) of weather models show this area verifying, the uncertainty is more to do with placement further south. The outcome of snow to lower levels in the Northern areas is not a certainty infact far from it however, the probabilistic forecasting method is always the way to go with consensus whilst leaving room for other possibilities which is what I've done, and you have covered here. Other outcomes include a more northerly track (some of Harmonie runs) and a more unorganized precipitation regime. However, I feel at this moment it would be unrealistic to go with 50/50 or even say "too close to call" for the precip further north at least, given the data for the triple point system which I am looking at. This does not discount a more unorganized precip area from occurring, just gives it a chance of say 25% whilst remaining aware that the higher confidence of snow for some areas (S Yorkshire, North & East Midlands) means imo a warning is valid from both an impact and likelihood perspective. Further south there is a risk of some snow too which of course will be bounded by the same spatial marginality mentioned above. Uncertainty is always the case with snow it's about doing the best one can with the data provided and forecasting knowledge to warn the public beforehand.

     

    Brilliant post. I love that you have name dropped Queensbury mate. I live at Mountain which is Queensburys highest point. Hopefully we get a right pasting. 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

    No, gunna check it out.

    Have a look the screen shot from it has been put on the mod thread

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Might as well re name mod thread the Sarf East fwed. 

    ECM take moves everything through quickly

     

    Screenshot_20210113_183642_com.android.chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
    10 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

    Do I dare mention Saturdays snow potential?? 🤣🤣🤣

     

    giphy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
    2 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

     

    giphy.gif

    😂😂😂

     

    6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    🤣🤣😂       👍

    😝

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    13 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

    Do I dare mention Saturdays snow potential?? 🤣🤣🤣

    None starter that one sadly even the freezing rain has gone.

    Dunno what our local forecast has had for tea. Heavy snow from eight dying away to light snow from two. Unless the met sees colder air pushing back west much earlier they are on crack. I wonder whats the highest even upper record is for falling Snow?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL

    Thought I'd post GEFS again from today's 12z, tonight's runs do seem to have been a bit of an improvement again after the disappointment of this morning.

    Mean still around 1c next week for our area, so surely snow chances continue ❄️👍

    t2mSouth_Yorkshire (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    1 minute ago, Winter Cold said:

    Thought I'd post GEFS again from today's 12z, tonight's runs do seem to have been a bit of an improvement again after the disappointment of this morning.

    Mean still around 1c next week for our area, so surely snow chances continue ❄️👍

    t2mSouth_Yorkshire (1).png

    No disappointment this morning unless you like freezing rain. I was glad it cleared off quick.

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    None starter that one sadly even the freezing rain has gone.

    Dunno what our local forecast has had for tea. Heavy snow from eight dying away to light snow from two. Unless the met sees colder air pushing back west much earlier they are on crack. I wonder whats the highest even upper record is for falling Snow?

    Highest I seen was upper of -1 with torrential rain turning to snow, gave a foot between 9pm-2am new years eve 1 year, but quickly turned to rain once the uppers exceeded 0.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
    Just now, The PIT said:

    No disappointment this morning unless you like freezing rain. I was glad it cleared off quick.

    Sorry, I meant the downgrading of the outlook for next week. Model runs were a bit naf but hopefully we're North enough to still be in the running for stuff

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Yeah looks mint 

    Yes! The split in the stratosphere i feel will slow the westerly progressiom and send the lows on a train to france and spain. 

    I dont think its being picked up om fully yet.

    I feel north easterly winds will dominate from next wednesday

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    I do think this thread has more downbeat folk than any other waiting for Terrier and Sausage

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    3 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

    Sorry, I meant the downgrading of the outlook for next week. Model runs were a bit naf but hopefully we're North enough to still be in the running for stuff

    I think gfs operational and ECM are pretty good tonight. Ukmo probably wouldn't be bad if it went further.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    I do think this thread has more downbeat folk than any other waiting for Terrier and Sausage

    Nah not down beat just down to earth.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
    1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

    I think gfs operational and ECM are pretty good tonight. Ukmo probably wouldn't be bad if it went further.

    Yes I do think it's mostly the southern contingent who gets worked up and a lot of the posts which are moaning come from there. Plenty of interesting and exciting twists to come for Yorkshire I think for the rest of this month 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Yes! The split in the stratosphere i feel will slow the westerly progressiom and send the lows on a train to france and spain. 

    I dont think its being picked up om fully yet.

    I feel north easterly winds will dominate from next wednesday

    Yeah I think your onto something. 

    I think as time goes on north easterly winds should be more prevalent in our forecast. But to the extent of cold they bring in and how long they last I'm not so sure.

    I think the SSW is having an effect now and the juggernaut that is the atlantic maybe showing the first signs of meaningful weakening.

    Can see a terrific februrary coming up if signals upstream are to be believed. Hell a terrific end of january if we are lucky 😁

     

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