Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Scott Ingham]

@Cheese Rice Are you putting your neck on the line now and saying NO area under 100metres will receive 2-5cm of snow??

[Harsh Climate]

31 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I live sheffield area and have had two decent snow events already

Mate you live in rotherham, not sheffield 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

15 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

There's a brief 4 hour period of opportunity between 8am-12 where the front joins and intensity increases.

After 12 the front is well on its way out of Yorkshire.

I'm not seeing anything significant for low lying areas currently. 

Surprises can happen though can't they.  There were no warnings out for 20cms around Harrogate and 30cms plus around the North York Moors last time around but it happened?

Let's just wait and see what transpires before ruling out notable snow for low ground?

Fingers crossed for us all

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm not quite sure why a difference of opinion is seen in this way. 

Please don't engage with my posts going forward, I will not engage with your posts either. 

Thank-you 

Its seen lile this because i have no other way to understand why you think areas under 100metres wont recieve at least a couple of cms. Its like your looking at different charts. I am genuinely baffled its a bizarre comment to make!

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Mate you live in rotherham, not sheffield 

Its 6 miles away on low ground

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

@Cheese Rice Are you putting your neck on the line now and saying NO area under 100metres will receive 2-5cm of snow??

I have to say that saying that is similar in logic to saying nowhere above 250 metres would see 2-5cm snow in a cold, high ground favoured outcome. I am not making any personal attacks, I am stating my viewpoint, which is that I don't see the logic behind a high ground restricted solution occupying the bulk of a forecast description. Especially given the confidence for ample evapo cooling in an air mass which produces a base freezing line of 500m & base snow line of 250m, and the population of the low level area in discussion.

[Scott Ingham]

Its like banging ya head on a brick wall trying to explain the science today on why forecasts are out for a few cms on low ground on here! Lets wait and see what happens!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I have to say that saying that is similar in logic to saying nowhere above 250 metres would see 2-5cm snow in a cold, high ground favoured outcome. I am not making any personal attacks, I am stating my viewpoint, which is that I don't see the logic behind a high ground restricted solution occupying the bulk of a forecast description. Especially given the confidence for ample evapo cooling in an air mass which produces a base freezing line of 500m & base snow line of 250m, and the population of the low level area in discussion.

Yeah i know mate its true int it.

If hed said its mainly a high ground event with some areas low down locally hitting a few cms id be able to give a bit more credibility. 

 

[Harsh Climate]

And I see the word 'evaporative cooling being banded around an awful lot recently.

To be honest when the snow line drops tomorrow for parts of our region giving lower areas a chance of snow it's mostly going to be because of the colder air been tucked in around the departing low, into our precipitation.

The precipitation tomorrow looks like being mostly light to moderate with the odd heavier burst, again that isn't your typical evaporative cooling event. 

[cheese]

44 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Just to clarify your implying that it could be rain on high ground and at the bottom of the hill under heavier ppn it would be snowing? I don't see how in any situation the odds would favour low ground for snowfall, it would always favour high ground first. 

There was actually a scenario in March 2013 where there was freezing rain on high ground around Huddersfield but snow to lower levels elsewhere, so it can definitely happen. 

Edited January 13, 2021 by cheese

[Paul]

Seems to be a bit of ego drifting about in here, it's not a competition!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

And I see the word 'evaporative cooling being banded around an awful lot recently.

To be honest when the snow line drops tomorrow for parts of our region giving lower areas a chance of snow it's mostly going to be because of the colder air been tucked in around the departing low, into our precipitation.

The precipitation tomorrow looks like being mostly light to moderate with the odd heavier burst, again that isn't your typical evaporative cooling event. 

Where have you seen this? 

There is a forecast for heavy snow between 8am-12pm in Yorkshire. 

This is where the snow comes from!

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its like banging ya head on a brick wall trying to explain the science today on why forecasts are out for a few cms on low ground on here! Lets wait and see what happens!

You should try the climate area, Scott?!

[Guest]

Come on guys, you're like the models! They have subtle differences at the very least looking at tomorrow and they will be increasingly useless (like our own forecasts) tomorrow as we switch to nowcasting/radar watch.

We're obviously going to disagree on the fine details as well but we need to be respectful about it  

Snow to lower ground? Possible, clearly. 

Rain and sleet only at lower ground? Also possible, clearly.

When we're interpreting charts and warnings it is possible both can be right.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, General Cluster said:

You should try the climate area, Scott?!

I know mate yeah! Hahahaha! Driving me round the bend!!

[Kasim Awan]

The falling of the snow line tomorrow within the colder sector is enhanced by both diabatic cooling of the air (precipitation directly cooling the air) and evaporative cooling.

This can be seen clearly in the high resolution output with 850hpa temperatures which suggest a colder air mass to the east. Yet when freezing lines are viewed it is clear that these are lower within the main area of precipitation, as a result of various forms of precipitation lead heat transfer.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Winter Cold]

Surely there's a chance everyone will see snow tomorrow.

My station here is already down to 1.1c and dew of 0.6 so that's not far off snow conducive now and it's only early evening weds. Could be turning much sooner than midday tomoz based on this currently

[Scott Ingham]

Right enough arguing now i think both camps have (overly) strongly explained their viewpoint.

I guess we will only know come tomorrow morning!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Winter Cold said:

Surely there's a chance everyone will see snow tomorrow.

My station here is already down to 1.1c and dew of 0.6 so that's not far off snow conducive now and it's only early evening weds. Could be turning much sooner than midday tomoz based on this currently

There is mate yeah thats the point. Keep an eye on the radar and hope you get lucky

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

The falling of the snow line tomorrow within the colder sector is enhanced by both diabatic cooling of the air (precipitation directly cooling the air) and evaporative cooling.

This can be seen clearly in the high resolution output with 850hpa temperatures which suggest a colder air mass to the east. Yet when freezing lines are viewed it is clear that these are lower within the main area of precipitation, leading to various forms of precipitation lead heat transfer.

Brilliant post mate

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Right enough arguing now i think both camps have (overly) strongly explained their viewpoint.

I guess we will only know come tomorrow morning!

Ultimately it will likely be a mix of both outcomes, however, there is a chance of more widespread low level snow than even I suggest as a median outcome. This is why the median approach is flawed.

Also note there's a chance of a more southerly track which would produce more patchy low ground snow accumulations in Yorkshire & more widespread low level snow into the North Midlands. This happens as the low level snow follows any forecast alterations of the heavy precip area.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Where have you seen this? 

There is a forecast for heavy snow between 8am-12pm in Yorkshire. 

This is where the snow comes from!

You can clearly see the colder air been dragged in from the east as the low departs, this is what should tip the balance more in the favour for low ground tomorrow morning/afternoon.

Again I don't think the precipitation will be heavy enough for evaportive cooling, also I think north and west yorkshire will fair best. Might be wrong might be right just my opinnion  

[Bradowl]

3 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

Surely there's a chance everyone will see snow tomorrow.

My station here is already down to 1.1c and dew of 0.6 so that's not far off snow conducive now and it's only early evening weds. Could be turning much sooner than midday tomoz based on this currently

I wouldn't be surprised if some areas of Yorkshire see some Snow during night, I've seen similar set ups like the one now over years where rain is forecast to turn to snow and it as done much earlier than forecasted. 

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

You can clearly see the colder air been dragged in from the east as the low departs, this is what should tip the balance more in the favour for low ground tomorrow morning/afternoon.

Again I don't think the precipitation will be heavy enough for evaportive cooling, also I think north and west yorkshire will fair best. Might be wrong might be right just my opinnion  

The problem you have is your looking at 850s and these only need to be round -1 in this event which was mentioned yesterday.

The most important thing is wet bulb temperatures and strength of precipitation

The way your forecasting works most of the time but snowforecasting is a lot more technical than how you are looking at it.

I hope it does snow just so you can see this set up with your own eyes.

Id be happy to explain in private chat why after the event

That chart shows me in 850s of at least -3 850s on all 3 charts which is 3 times more than needed im this set up

Edited January 13, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[The PIT]

26 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I have to agree with this assesment this is how i see it playing out as well

I never look in detail until closer to the time. Pity we can't get soundings as to what the atmosphere is really like during the day.

Got to admit I feel a tit when I get it wrong.

Edited January 13, 2021 by The PIT