Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Craigers]

5 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

Interesting Met Office forecast for Yorkshire from midweek onwards this morning.

Plenty of uncertainty even at 2/3 days out?

Models also looking good in the longer term this morning

Those charts have been giving me a headache after last night's rollercoaster

[The PIT]

GFS changes again as does the ECM so FI starts at around T24 at the moment. Even the televised forecasts not wanting to go beyond Tuesday in any detail

[Craigers]

Only big thing I can take from all the models is that the trend has got significantly better as were getting closer to the cut off low.

[Schnee]

It is certainly going to be interesting watching the model thread this week!

I'm a mobile engineer in the carpark industry working 3 weeks on, 3 weeks furlough covering the whole North East and North West of the UK.  This week is 1 of 3 and it's mixed of interest and concern as to what happens next week and the week after. How's the Weds night/Thurs morning event look at the moment?

[LeeSnowFan]

is it a case of lampost watching wed/thursday or can we say for certain by tomorrow what areas could be good for snow?

[winterof79]

Matron pass me my rubber pants.... And that's after the stalling front saga

 

[Sunny_AS]

Past experience has shown that the models can underestimate the strength of any cold block to the east. 
 

Wed/thurs is becoming a fascinating watch. The fax charts seem to go well for the north. 

[LeeSnowFan]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Matron pass me my rubber pants.... And that's after the stalling front saga

 

oh which lucky areas are goiung to get this

[Scott Ingham]

Weather warning out for us.

If your above 150metres.

5-15cm widely

With local spots touching 30cm

If this is the case wednesday could turn amber or red warning 

[LeeSnowFan]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Weather warning out for us.

If your above 150metres.

5-15cm widely

With local spots touching 30cm

If this is the case wednesday could turn amber or red warning 

100m for me so could still be lucky!

[winterof79]

34 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Weather warning out for us.

If your above 150metres.

5-15cm widely

With local spots touching 30cm

If this is the case wednesday could turn amber or red warning

Missing me by a snow ball chuck

[Scott Ingham]

12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Missing me by a snow ball chuck

And me hahaha it will be further south east enough by the day im sure lol

[Nick L]

Struggling to see what the Met Office are seeing to be going for up to a foot of snow!! EC has rain stalling over the Pennines, but with 925 temps above freezing it's going to be a struggle to get snow to lower levels away from the Pennines. The potential is there and it's been giving me headaches the last few days but 30cm?! Unless it's down to the poor detail of the warnings and they actually just mean Scotland.

I think there's more risk of freezing rain at lower levels in N England with such embedded surface cold.

[Craigers]

10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

And me hahaha it will be further south east enough by the day im sure lol

Or it won't reach us at all with underestimating the block . Those were the years being disappointed and it all fizzling out after the pennines 

[Nick L]

To add to the above, UKV 3z does have 15-30cm in spots but still, very bold call IMO.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

To add to the above, UKV 3z does have 15-30cm in spots but still, very bold call IMO.

The nature of covering ones bottom as is the norm nowadays Nick. 

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Struggling to see what the Met Office are seeing to be going for up to a foot of snow!! EC has rain stalling over the Pennines, but with 925 temps above freezing it's going to be a struggle to get snow to lower levels away from the Pennines. The potential is there and it's been giving me headaches the last few days but 30cm?! Unless it's down to the poor detail of the warnings and they actually just mean Scotland.

I think there's more risk of freezing rain at lower levels in N England with such embedded surface cold.

Freezing level is at 300metres with many ensembles showing further westerly pushes of the pattern as is often the case with this embedded cold so potential for this to drop further. Winds look to be switch south easterly drying the air and intensity looks very high for a very long period of time pulling down the freezing level after 2 or 3 hours of rain due to evaporative cooling.

Yorkshire has been on the right side of marginal every spell with large totals in north and west yorkshire already after having a forecast of a dusting.

Its extremely cold here ive barely been above 1 degrees for two weeks

[LeeSnowFan]

Who wants to take a stab at areas that could do well? west and north yorks did fab other day perhaps little old us in south yorks could be lucky?

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Who wants to take a stab at areas that could do well? west and north yorks did fab other day perhaps little old us in south yorks could be lucky?

Id suggest the same areas again unfortunately for us hahaha

[LeeSnowFan]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Id suggest the same areas again unfortunately for us hahaha

[Winter Cold]

Weds and Thurs currently showing sleet for me, maybe get lucky but can't see a warning showing up so must be just outside it

[LeeSnowFan]

East of the pennines

[adrianh]

Less expectation in S Yorkshire this time so won't be quite as disappointed with the likely cold rain. Mid term looks very promising. Hopefully it won't end up scuppered in the next few runs!

[adrianh]

Arpege has most of Yorkshire in the mix for some midweek snow - perhaps there'll be some surprises for us further south on Wednesday night. Guess it'll be down to radar watching

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, Nick L said:

To add to the above, UKV 3z does have 15-30cm in spots but still, very bold call IMO.

While I must admit I was expecting nothing (the GFS being poor means I don't use it to base a snow forecast but I do use it as a basic 'is there a chance given that it over rather underforecasts the chance' and it has always shown cold rain) I'd grateful if your able to post the chart.