Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

The ECM and UKMO are a bit disapointing this morning though mate.

That aside they can still change on the next output  And this morning's gfs has improved our snow chances mon ~ wed.

Now occasional -9 uppers showing across our region, I think average upper has gone down to -7.75 now  the balance has just been tipped.

And also good precipitation now shown across our region on tuesday.

Im a little unwell with corona mate so not put time into checking hi res but how we looking for next weeks easterly?

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Im a little unwell with corona mate so not put time into checking hi res but how we looking for next weeks easterly?

oh no get well soon!!

[Empire Of Snow]

Brighter now, radar looks weak for further showers. Winds will turn NE in the afternoon so let's see if anything pops up later. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Empire Of Snow

[Harsh Climate]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Im a little unwell with corona mate so not put time into checking hi res but how we looking for next weeks easterly?

Ah hope ya get better soon mate. 

I think it's looking good, I wouldn't be supprised if people started seeing settling snow from this evening as the colder uppers start to dig in and shower activity reinvigorates. 

Then the large shop window of opportunity is open all the way until wednesday morning. I tell you something most of us will get that lovely feeling sometime next week when a feed of showers/streamer hits, It's piling it down with snow and ya thinkin get in, how much we gunna get! Whether that be 1cm or 8cm I don't know lol.

On that preciptation chart I showed does have your area at most risk of heavy precipitation tuesday but that area shifting slightly north as the day progresses.

Let's just hope we get better ukmo and ecm later, as snow falling with no end to cold in sight ain't the same as snow falling with no end in sight haha 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Scott Ingham]

17 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

oh no get well soon!!

Thanks pal its awful feel like ive done 9 rounds wi Tyson

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Thanks pal its awful feel like ive done 9 rounds wi Tyson

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Thanks pal its awful feel like ive done 9 rounds wi Tyson

Must be bad : ( , try to take break from the weather now and again as you don't want to be wasting energy albeit mental energy  but I know that's nearly impossible

Edited January 3, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Ah hope ya get better soon mate. 

I think it's looking good, I wouldn't be supprised if people started seeing settling snow from this evening as the colder uppers start to dig in and shower activity reinvigorates. 

Then the large shop window of opportunity is open all the way until wednesday morning. I tell you something most of us will get that lovely feeling sometime next week when a feed of showers/streamer hits, It's piling it down with snow and ya thinkin get in, how much we gunna get! Whether that be 1cm or 8cm I don't know lol.

On that preciptation chart I showed does have your area at most risk of heavy precipitation tuesday but shifting north as the day progresses.

Let's just hope we get better ukmo and ecm later, as snow falling with and end to cold in sight ain't the same as snow falling with no end in sight haha 

Thanks for the update mate! Sounds good at least thats one bright spark out of being stuck in unwell getting to watch heavy snow showers! 

I do strongly believe the gfs is right here you know? Genuinely believe it but im not a pro met forecaster im an amateur like the rest of us with a degree in meteorology.

I do trust in my line of thinking though and whatever how interesting has this year been?!

[Danns]

@Scott Ingham Get well soon mate, I had the rona in early December, know the feeling. Keep hammering the Lemsip.
 

Radar looks fairly light at the moment, wife working in penistone today said it’s come down quite heavy and white over, the heavier band/blob just skirted by Sheffield. Temp currently 2c Dewpoint 0.9 wrong side of marginal at the moment for me.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Must be bad : ( , try to take break from the weather now and again as you don't want to be wasting energy albeit mental energy  but I know that's nearly impossible

Well thats the plan to try n get a nap in till the 12z start n listen to my body but believe it or not this is the second time for me now! 

[Schnee]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Thanks pal its awful feel like ive done 9 rounds wi Tyson

Hope you recover quickly.


This pic is from the Feb 1991 Easterly, taken in Crossgates Leeds. I do wonder if a morning scene like this will happen again.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Danns said:

@Scott Ingham Get well soon mate, I had the rona in early December, know the feeling. Keep hammering the Lemsip.
 

Radar looks fairly light at the moment, wife working in penistone today said it’s come down quite heavy and white over, the heavier band/blob just skirted by Sheffield. Temp currently 2c Dewpoint 0.9 wrong side of marginal at the moment for me.

Thanks Danns i have had it twice now im like a breeding ground for it hahaha

Appreciate the concern tho! The snow will help! Hahah!

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Stelmer said:

Hope you recover quickly.


This pic is from the Feb 1991 Easterly, taken in Crossgates Leeds. I do wonder if a morning scene like this will happen again.

I remember this! Its the first memory i have of snow as a child sledging with my sister in clifton park with my Dad!

I hope it is and thanks for the words!

[LeeSnowFan]

I think we had such an amazing winter in 2009/2010 we all hope for the same!  I believe we could see that again maybe not this year but next few years stranger things have happened look at 2020 lol

theres a few posters in here that have been spot on  and I tend to follow them more than the news now!

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Thanks for the update mate! Sounds good at least thats one bright spark out of being stuck in unwell getting to watch heavy snow showers! 

I do strongly believe the gfs is right here you know? Genuinely believe it but im not a pro met forecaster im an amateur like the rest of us with a degree in meteorology.

I do trust in my line of thinking though and whatever how interesting has this year been?!

Yeah, hopefully we get a lovely snow storm from the northwest late net week followed by colder weather as the gfs is showing but my gut just says ecm and ukmo will probably be right, like you no degree and all that lol but go and my gut and past experiences.

Saw a post on south east thread earlyier that explains it really well (paul sherman):

''  Just pray and pray GFS is correct as its pretty much that Model against the rest and is showing an absolute snowfest for most of the UK. After a 40 hour spell of streamers like Nick says above away from the coasts it dries out for Thursday before the mother of all SnowStorms from the North and North West, then continues cold with more troughs and low pressure coming down from the north into entrenched cold.

Only problem is none of the other Models are seeing this and after a rainy sleety mess over the next 72 hours they revert back to a more mobile pattern after the end of this week.

Unfortunately I know who my money is on. '' 

Not to say your not right though, pulling a random figure out I give gfs a 25% being right over ukmo/ecm but who knows what the 12z will bring, we all praying and crossing toes for a big u turn.

Yeah much better than last winter and at this stage atleast we seen a few brief falls and a few better ones hopefully next week! Also I do hope your right about the SSW having an effect soon rather than next month. I want to see those 19th century victorian weather charts appear! 

 

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

I think we had such an amazing winter in 2009/2010 we all hope for the same!  I believe we could see that again maybe not this year but next few years stranger things have happened look at 2020 lol

theres a few posters in here that have been spot on  and I tend to follow them more than the news now!

Steve Murr just posted the first hi res chart which takes us to 5am tuesday morning and that shows us with 2 or 3cms just from monday which when i last checked looked more marginable so thats a great sign!

[Craigers]

34 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Im a little unwell with corona mate so not put time into checking hi res but how we looking for next weeks easterly?

My other half has had it since Christmas mate caught from work at the primary school. Hope youl get better soon mate and want to thank you for your amazing input on the model forum! Absolutely smashing it!!! I've been on here since 2004 

[Harsh Climate]

9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Well thats the plan to try n get a nap in till the 12z start n listen to my body but believe it or not this is the second time for me now! 

wow was a bit sceptical when I heard of people catching it twice, just goes to show how serious this thing is.

Don't think any one would begrudge you a good snowfall, as long is it doesn't come from mine haha

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah, hopefully we get a lovely snow storm from the northwest late net week followed by colder weather as the gfs is showing but my gut just says ecm and ukmo will probably be right, like you no degree and all that lol but go and my gut and past experiences.

Saw a post on south east thread earlyier that explains it really well (paul sherman):

''  Just pray and pray GFS is correct as its pretty much that Model against the rest and is showing an absolute snowfest for most of the UK. After a 40 hour spell of streamers like Nick says above away from the coasts it dries out for Thursday before the mother of all SnowStorms from the North and North West, then continues cold with more troughs and low pressure coming down from the north into entrenched cold.

Only problem is none of the other Models are seeing this and after a rainy sleety mess over the next 72 hours they revert back to a more mobile pattern after the end of this week.

Unfortunately I know who my money is on. '' 

Not to say your not right though, pulling a random figure out I give gfs a 25% being right over ukmo/ecm but who knows what the 12z will bring, we all praying and crossing toes for a big u turn.

Yeah much better than last winter and at this stage atleast we seen a few brief falls and a few better ones hopefully next week! Also I do hope your right about the SSW having an effect soon rather than next month. I want to see those 19th century victorian weather charts appear! 

 

In my head it just makes sense.

Anything under 96hours in Americs GFS is better at. That i dont personally feel is up for debate from like you years of learning model bias in certain set ups.

If gfs is right in america then a greeny ridge is nailed.

That one north pacific low is that important our chances of seeing cold prior to the ssw.

20th onwards is when we see the models show charts being affected by the SSW pal.

Thats 17 days away so well see it back end of GFS next thurs/fri/saturday.

I hope we get a nice streamer set up!!

[Jeremy Shockey]

Harmonie 6z prec.

When one of these streamers hits Yorkshire on Tue morning there is going to be some fun. ( especially when you consider that the -8 isotherm is across most of Yorkshire by then ) 

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Craigers said:

My other half has had it since Christmas mate caught from work at the primary school. Hope youl get better soon mate and want to thank you for your amazing input on the model forum! Absolutely smashing it!!! I've been on here since 2004 

See this was my thinking that id never got rid since october buy my gp said it wouldht show on a test after 36 days so its more likely to be a different strain. 

Appreciate that m8 took me a lot of courage to start getting my own ideas across about forecasting.

This year ive been lucky with (without too much back slapping) getting things right up to this point but its weather normally it makes mugs of what you think and it still could do resr of winter 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

Harmonie 6z prec.

When one of these streamers hits Yorkshire on Tue morning there is going to be some fun. ( especially when you consider that the -8 isotherm is across most of Yorkshire by then ) 

that looks beautoful!

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

wow was a bit sceptical when I heard of people catching it twice, just goes to show how serious this thing is.

Don't think any one would begrudge you a good snowfall, as long is it doesn't come from mine haha

Hahaha hopefully we all get some!!

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Hahaha hopefully we all get some!!

my partners step mum caught it twice shes just getting over it! wouldn't wish it on anyone   and yes thanks so much for you're input Ive been a member since 2010!

[Slysi100]

Few more showers heading this was from the North Sea. Should be here in a couple of hours, hopefully as snow