Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Winter Cold]

Thought it worth posting today's 12z GEFS, here for South Yorkshire....

Showing ice days all next week

And flat line -10 850s for Monday to Thursday!

So a pretty exciting and rare week coming up, one for us to remember hopefully. Some serious cold there for our part of the world

NB - notice the 'warm up' after only gets us to a mean of 3c by day on this set, so only a slow thaw after....

[Hope2view]

What’s peoples preference for rainfall radar sites to watch over the coming days? 
 

 

[Danns]

Signal still there on icon 18z moderate snow fall between 9pm and 11pm for favoured spots south of the region sliding south west. 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Danns

[Empire Of Snow]

50 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Just come across this that's been issued, for tomorrow up to midnight. 

Earlier today I was reading "space carers" instead of "spare". I hope this isn't a hi-res thumbnail I'm supposed to clearly read because everything is blurry!

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

More disappointing output and met office forecast for the week ahead for here, heavy rain showers and rain all day tomorrow, then cloudy and dry for the whole of next week although cold, on the plus side vaccine supplies should not be held up, and that is far more important.

sorry but that is not what the Met O forecast shows for Spalding

Spalding (Lincolnshire) weather

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Spalding 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

 

[Sunny_AS]

10 minutes ago, Danns said:

Signal still there on icon 18z moderate snow fall between 9pm and 11pm for favoured spots south of the region sliding south west. 

 

Stil struggling to work out what this Low wants to do

[SouthYorks]

Although not quite as clearly well defined as GEM, but ICON 18z now defintely picking up the Baltic Sea sourced Humber Streamer.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, SouthYorks said:

Although not quite as clearly well defined as GEM, but ICON 18z now defintely picking up the Baltic Sea sourced Humber Streamer.

Icon struggles to model precipitation inland you nornally see streamers out to sea that others show moving east to west so to see this inland is significant at that range for both flow and intensity

[Danns]

@Scott Ingham what’s your take on the icons modelling of precipitation rate/positioning tomorrow night for our neck of the woods? seems to be much more aggressive in its predictions in comparison to others.

[Had Worse]

10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Icon struggles to model precipitation inland you nornally see streamers out to sea that others show moving east to west so to see this inland is significant at that range for both flow and intensity

I had to do this as it depicts the Snake pass after an unbelievable snow event.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Had Worse

[SouthYorks]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Icon struggles to model precipitation inland you nornally see streamers out to sea that others show moving east to west so to see this inland is significant at that range for both flow and intensity

Yep, and what is notable is that the streamer ppn is seen over the Irish Sea and also in the Atlantic west of Ireland!  That is some streamer, all the way from south of Sweden to the West Atlantic!

Edited February 5, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

Yep, and what is notable is that it the streamer ppn is seen over the Irish Sea and also in the Atlantic west of Ireland!  That is some streamer, all the way from south of Sweden to the West Atlantic!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?map=510

Is this the ICON-EU model your talking about?

[SouthYorks]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?map=510

Is this the ICON-EU model your talking about?

Yep, that’s the one.  To see the wider view click ‘Eur. Ouest’, top right of the screen.

Edited February 5, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Scott Ingham]

12 minutes ago, Danns said:

@Scott Ingham what’s your take on the icons modelling of precipitation rate/positioning tomorrow night for our neck of the woods? seems to be much more aggressive in its predictions in comparison to others.

Icon is hi-res and is a very good model when it comes to organised snow from low pressure so id be encouraged as were not talking about showers which icon struggles with compared to the nmm-wrf or euro 4. 

But also the fact it is so much different is a story in itself. It tells you theres no consistency and as such tells me its too early to place anything other than a sporting forecast atm until we have more agteement. 06z tomorrow wait till then but as a sporting or fun unofficial forecast my own opinion stands at 30-40cm somewhere probably now in norfolk by close of play tuesday

Edited February 5, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

Yep, and what is notable is that it the streamer ppn is seen over the Irish Sea and also in the Atlantic west of Ireland!  That is some streamer, all the way from south of Sweden to the West Atlantic!

Yeah! Use the euro4 and nmm for this period mate and i think youll be closer to the mark as these models are better in this scenario and maybe add the arome as well

[Scott Ingham]

11 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I had to do this as it depicts the Snake pass after an unbelievable snow event.

Imagine hahahaha!!!

[Kasim Awan]

Atm I see 20-30cm Norfolk, 10-15cm London/Kent, 10-15cm in our neck of the woods Monday & Tuesday

[SouthYorks]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah! Use the euro4 and nmm for this period mate and i think youll be closer to the mark as these models are better in this scenario and maybe add the arome as well

Absolutely!  Still waiting for their 18z, so as ICON out worth a view.

[Frosty the Snowman]

14 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I had to do this as it depicts the Snake pass after an unbelievable snow event.

 

 

Not quite - but actually the snake pass in this one or nearby

 

[Had Worse]

Ive done a gif slowed down

[Kasim Awan]

In a snow drift yeah, in the BFTE the snow blew off the plateau onto bends in the roads. Drifts were between 10 and 30 feet deep.

[Kasim Awan]

Wrf 18z tonight will nail tomorrow no question. It's rolling out now.

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Ive done a gif slowed down

Ooo i love this gif slowed down at this pace gives you a feel for the set up loads easier!

Would be great if you could do of these for each run! For maybe the wrf??? 

I actually do love visually seeing the movement of the streamers

Edited February 5, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[SouthYorks]

14 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Ive done a gif slowed down

Brilliant!  Just look at that reverse flow across the north of the uk coming from Scandi all the way across into the Atlantic!  That is quite something to see!

Edited February 5, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Had Worse]

Heres the WRF-NMM