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Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Dec 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Even if ECM is correct we get pasting no2

    image.thumb.png.4aa1fded99ad15e0374624b8e96ab013.png

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    Sorry guys. My mums still in a really bad way. I just wanted to post to quickly say tonight in my opinin is being underestimated. The trend today has been to keep the front as all snow

    Last one from me, great day...just stopped now so 11 hours of snow 👍👏👏 Hope those that missed out get some soon 🤞👍  

    Around 50cm has fallen across the highest parts of the North York Moors yesterday. Went for a walk this morning at Newgate Bank. Around 30cm of fresh powdery snow underfoot and quite difficult to

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
    32 minutes ago, bazookabob said:

    Much as the ECM is the least good option for next weekend, what's this it's got for tomorrow night?! 🤔 Screenshot_20210130-185924_Gallery.thumb.jpg.9d3211c3c5a5e22bcfe69290c9933852.jpg

    @bazookabob I don’t want to suddenly bring you down from euphoria, but that isn’t tomorrow night, it’s 8 days away...

    ECM is decent for a period of snow Tuesday but it does move it through reasonably quickly (6-8 hours) compared to the 24 hour event that was predicted yesterday.

    As other have said, don’t take any one run individually.  Have a view on all models, take into consideration Meto view, and wait for the hi-res, because as it stands this still has chance to upgrade or downgrade.  I’m sure there will be some areas that get to see a lot of settled snow but currently based on what is on view on the models today I think that will be reserved for more Northern parts of our region and high ground more across the region.

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    Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
    10 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

    @bazookabob I don’t want to suddenly bring you down from euphoria, but that isn’t tomorrow night, it’s 8 days away...

    ECM is decent for a period of snow Tuesday but it does move it through reasonably quickly (6-8 hours) compared to the 24 hour event that was predicted yesterday.

    As other have said, don’t take any one run individually.  Have a view on all models, take into consideration Meto view, and wait for the hi-res, because as it stands this still has chance to upgrade or downgrade.  I’m sure there will be some areas that get to see a lot of settled snow but currently based on what is on view on the models today I think that will be reserved for more Northern parts of our region and high ground more across the region.

     

    Oh bugger 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

    ICON still looking good for snow for Tuesday with approx 10-12 hours of snow across the region. GFS has a slightly shorter period of snow but still impacting a wide area before a transition to rain.

    Longer term outlook for the following weekend and beyond looking very positive based on 12z runs.

    EDF4624C-4441-45FF-8E0F-180C2F8F255D.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

    GFS looks good for heavy snow from early hours of next Saturday for approx 12 hours.  Yes its a week away, and lots will change, but nice to see we are moving in the right direction.

    A4D3E634-975E-4CA9-A2B2-8676CC680F6A.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley

    As other have said the usual thing is fir these systems to correct southwards.  Not a done deal but the trend in the models are there.  It’s as we go through Friday that the real interest lies.  Going to be an interesting couple of weeks with a few surprises me finks

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    deleted

    Edited by Snowjokes92
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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

    Looking at the short term outlook, for Tuesday, this has taken a downturn overnight.  

    ICON 0z has moved to GFS prediction, limiting snow to a relatively short period in the South of the region before turning to rain.  GFS is as it was yesterday.  GFSP is an all rain event for nearly the whole region.  ECM is similar ro ICON/GFS with approx 3-4 hours of snow in the South of the region moving North.

    Only Arpege has a slightly longer spell of snow, but that also eventually turn to rain.

    Note the Meto update is also a downgrade, with reference only to hill snow.

    ‘A spell of wet and windy weather moves northeast on Tuesday, with some hill snow. Drier, brighter and milder on Wednesday. Cloudy and breezy with outbreaks of rain on Thursday.’

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    Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl

    Yes it's not great updates this morning I must say, presumably if the Met office really do think Tuesday is a hills only event, they will change the warnings this morning (again). Still the chance of improvements, I don't think a single snow event in England this month has gone as predicted by the Met Office. As for the proper cold spell later this week, going by the MOD, who knows! I won't be making any assumptions either way until at least the 12Z runs on Monday. Would be a hell of a change for it to go wrong completely, given the output/background signals/met office long ranger but it has happened before! 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL

    UKMO 12z saved the morning charts for me. Let hope this one is right!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cookridge, NW Leeds 190m asl
  • Location: Cookridge, NW Leeds 190m asl

    Re Tuesday, my guess is our region is still just about ok for a few hours snow from the early hours to late morning/ midday. Think the warning will remain for us but will be removed for Wales, the Midlands and west of the Pennines. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL

    ARPEGE 6Z first correction southwards! COME ON 🤗. Look where that secondary low slides at the south east on Wednesday morning 

    overview_20210131_06_057.thumb.jpg.76f0532dfa420c4d6aefcd17e45e72a2.jpgoverview_20210131_06_072.thumb.jpg.449c42ff92e1ce703987f39f3c1cbf55.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
    2 minutes ago, Craigers said:

    ARPEGE 6Z first correction southwards! COME ON 🤗. Look where that secondary low slides at the south east on Wednesday morning 

    overview_20210131_06_057.thumb.jpg.76f0532dfa420c4d6aefcd17e45e72a2.jpgoverview_20210131_06_072.thumb.jpg.449c42ff92e1ce703987f39f3c1cbf55.jpg

    certainly looking good for a good portion of our region 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
    6 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

    could be fun next weekend?

    prectypeuktopo.png

    Yes, 6z GFS looks very good for next weekend.  My concern is that yet again it’s a week away, and Tuesday/Wednesday looked at least as good last Friday but that now looks to be a bit of a lame duck away from high ground! 

    If we have to sacrifice Tuesday for a fantastic prolonged snow event from the East starting next weekend then I’ll happily take that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
    1 minute ago, SouthYorks said:

    Yes, 6z GFS looks very good for next weekend.  My concern is that yet again it’s a week away, and Tuesday/Wednesday looked at least as good last Friday but that now looks to be a bit of a lame duck away from high ground! 

    If we have to sacrifice Tuesday for a fantastic prolonged snow event from the East starting next weekend then I’ll happily take that.

    I thought that earlier we always seem to be chasing something good then when it gets nearer it either downgrades of the system  never gets close enough 😞 it is a wild ride indeed this winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

    Just as I post the above, the Meto upgrade the weather warning!  You couldn’t make it up!

    A band of rain, locally heavy in places, is likely to push slowly northeast across parts of the UK. As this rain comes into contact with cold air in place, it is likely to readily turn to snow away from eastern coastal districts. 1-4 cm of snow is quite likely away from eastern coasts, with 5-10 cm possible in places, most likely across southern Scotland and above 150 m over northern England. Potential for 20 cm or more across higher parts of the northern England and Scotland. As well as snow, a period of freezing rain is possible for parts of east Wales and the north Midlands. Should this occur widespread icy stretches would form. Snow should turn back to rain from the south, lasting longest across parts of northern England and Scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl

    Updated: 11:08 (UTC) on Sun 31 Jan 2021

    Further details

    A band of rain, locally heavy in places, is likely to push slowly northeast across parts of the UK. As this rain comes into contact with cold air in place, it is likely to readily turn to snow away from eastern coastal districts. 1-4 cm of snow is quite likely away from eastern coasts, with 5-10 cm possible in places, most likely across southern Scotland and above 150 m over northern England. Potential for 20 cm or more across higher parts of the northern England and Scotland. As well as snow, a period of freezing rain is possible for parts of east Wales and the north Midlands. Should this occur widespread icy stretches would form. Snow should turn back to rain from the south, lasting longest across parts of northern England and Scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
    1 minute ago, SouthYorks said:

    Just as I post the above, the Meto upgrade the weather warning!  You couldn’t make it up!

    A band of rain, locally heavy in places, is likely to push slowly northeast across parts of the UK. As this rain comes into contact with cold air in place, it is likely to readily turn to snow away from eastern coastal districts. 1-4 cm of snow is quite likely away from eastern coasts, with 5-10 cm possible in places, most likely across southern Scotland and above 150 m over northern England. Potential for 20 cm or more across higher parts of the northern England and Scotland. As well as snow, a period of freezing rain is possible for parts of east Wales and the north Midlands. Should this occur widespread icy stretches would form. Snow should turn back to rain from the south, lasting longest across parts of northern England and Scotland.

    oh beat me too it was just reading it on the site lol 😛

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
    9 minutes ago, Craigers said:

    ARPEGE 6Z first correction southwards! COME ON 🤗. Look where that secondary low slides at the south east on Wednesday morning 

    overview_20210131_06_057.thumb.jpg.76f0532dfa420c4d6aefcd17e45e72a2.jpgoverview_20210131_06_072.thumb.jpg.449c42ff92e1ce703987f39f3c1cbf55.jpg

    Seems to fit the Meto updated warning, and yes a definite shift South!  Still nervous as Arpege seems a bit out on its own... Off to view Harmonie, not looked at her recently 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
    1 minute ago, SouthYorks said:

    Seems to fit the Meto updated warning, and yes a definite shift South!  Still nervous as Arpege seems a bit out on its own... Off to view Harmonie, not looked at her recently 😁

    sweet talk her lol 😛

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

    Harmonie gives 4-5 hours of snow, but not as good as Arpege.

    Slight change of direction of conversation, but has anyone compared current Radar with hi-res models?!  Might not come to anything, but to my eye the ppn is much further East than any of the models predicted today.   Have a look at 6z NMM, which had the ppn barely reaching the coast of Wales before heading South East.  It’s already 50-100 miles East of that.  Could we see the ppn edge into the South of our region to see some snow before it dives South East?

    Edited by SouthYorks
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