Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[winterof79]

Saturday 13 Feb - Saturday 27 Feb

Confidence is low for mid-February onwards however similar conditions look most likely with high pressure remaining to the north of the UK bringing overall colder than average conditions and below average precipitation amounts. Through this period the risk of wintry hazards continues to be greater than normal with snowfall most likely in eastern areas. There remains the possibility of less cold interludes occurring from the west and southwest bringing wetter and milder conditions. In such instances, at the boundary between cold and mild air masses there remains the risk of disruptive snowfall.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sat 30 Jan 2021

[SouthYorks]

ICON 12z still going for 14-16 hours of snow, from around 7am Tuesday before taking significant snow up to the borders and Southern Scotland.

GFS brings the snow in earlier in the early hours of Tuesday but takes it through our region very quickly before a speedy transition to rain for Yorkshire.

Edited January 30, 2021 by SouthYorks

[LeeSnowFan]

4 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

ICON 12z still going for 14-16 hours of snow, from around 7am Tuesday before taking significant snow up to the borders and Southern Scotland.

GFS brings the snow in earlier in the early hours of Tuesday but takes it through our region very quickly before a speedy transition to rain for Yorkshire.

if you was a betting man which would you say icon or gfs? wasn't icon on point for our last snow?

[SouthYorks]

14 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

if you was a betting man which would you say icon or gfs? wasn't icon on point for our last snow?

I’d go for a middle ground.  I think the GFS is taking the snow through a bit too quickly, but ICON maybe over stating the duration of the snow.  It’ll be interesting to see what the hi-res models start to show when Tuesday comes into range tomorrow.

To add to this, just looked at Arpege and that seems to be siding with the GFS...

Edited January 30, 2021 by SouthYorks
Adding comment about Arpege

[SouthYorks]

GFSP is poor for snow on Tuesday, with a mostly rain event except for highest ground in North Yorks!

Edited January 30, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Adam lufc]

great so a non-event.

[Tim A]

Arpege is fine for a decent snow event, yes eventually pushing north and probably turning to drizzle but that is in line with the Met Office automated too, plenty of snow before then.

Can't seen it stalling over us for days but that was always an outside chance. Get out and enjoy the snow on Tuesday whilst you can.

Think the GFS is far too quick 

[farmans]

30 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

GFSP is poor for snow on Tuesday, with a mostly rain event except for highest ground in North Yorks!

Yes I’m begging to come around to that idea. Seems it’s moved north with northern areas of our region post prone if only temporary. It’s looking increasingly like the southern uplands / north east could be in for a huge dumping.

Likely  to see something in South Yorkshire but looking increasingly brief

[LeeSnowFan]

Between this thread and mad thread no wonder people get confused! some say amazing charts, great for our area etc, then others down play it, hard to know if its all south south south in mad thread going by there locations it is! ... arghhhhhhhhhhhh

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

great so a non-event.

Do not, whatever you do, take one run in isolation when looking at snow chances. You'll go insane. Like, criminally insane... the word snow will make you twitch violently, with the only coherent words you utter often preceded by a quiet "wibble" as you continue your descent into madness 

Depending on where you look this evening, some models are very encouraging for Tuesday, others less so. That means caution, and time, is needed until the detail is sorted. I'd hold off until Monday morning when the hi-res output should have a better idea  

[The PIT]

Pretty sure we will get some here but you miss it if you lie in. Yes better the further north you go however as today as the last few days have shown when we had a major snow event to none then some unexpected snow showers on the day things can all change. Wouldn't be surprised if it didn't push quite so far north when we get nearer the time period.

[LeeSnowFan]

4 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Do not, whatever you do, take one run in isolation when looking at snow chances. You'll go insane. Like, criminally insane... the word snow will make you twitch violently, with the only coherent words you utter often preceded by a quiet "wibble" as you continue your descent into madness 

Depending on where you look this evening, some models are very encouraging for Tuesday, others less so. That means caution, and time, is needed until the detail is sorted. I'd hold off until Monday morning when the hi-res output should have a better idea  

at last some sense ty

[Tim A]

21 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

great so a non-event.

If you are a fan of taking a model in isolation and want to calm down take a look at the GEM. Has the stall point somewhere between Leeds and Harrogate and gives a massive dumping in this area.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Tim A

[bazookabob]

23 minutes ago, Tim A said:

If you are a fan of taking a model in isolation and want to calm down take a look at the GEM. Has the stall point somewhere between Leeds and Harrogate and gives a massive dumping in this area.

It's bound to stall over Harrogate given the dumpings they've been getting this winter! 

[MIKE LEVITT]

bit disappointed by latest bbc extended 10 day outlook,playing down the idea of really cold air they mentioned yesterday.im not seeing anything to suggest that east yorkshire will finally end its snow drought.lowest temps im seeing on east coast is 4.

[Snowjokes92]

What do the experts think in here for Tuesday front? Can we expext any tweeks with uppers and dew point line filtering just south of region. My concern is the thought of it turning to rain as its very close to been all snow event or snow to rain for parts of west and south yorkshire? Uppers close to 0 and 1 later in the day, however if we can get uppers to stay south a tiny bit we should be ok. Something like the Gem 12z run actually!

[Snowjokes92]

46 minutes ago, Tim A said:

Arpege is fine for a decent snow event, yes eventually pushing north and probably turning to drizzle but that is in line with the Met Office automated too, plenty of snow before then.

Can't seen it stalling over us for days but that was always an outside chance. Get out and enjoy the snow on Tuesday whilst you can.

Think the GFS is far too quick 

I still think theres a good chance that the front wont make it that far north and with the assumption of gfs been maybe a bit progressive, it may adjust more south, meaning we have a good chance of it stalling over us and the borderline mild uppers staying south or been washed out. These adjustments south will give us a better oppertunity for Wednesday too. It could end up been a bit of a nowcast situation to wether its an all snow event, its very borderline. But majority of it will be snow, just need it a few miles south to keep any of those milders uppers away. Even if  they do squeeze in, they get washed out quite quickly and its brief. The time frames coming up are where we want to see these tweeks. We are in the firing line, but really want an all snow event from a personal point of view.

[Sunny_AS]

15 minutes ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

bit disappointed by latest bbc extended 10 day outlook,playing down the idea of really cold air they mentioned yesterday.im not seeing anything to suggest that east yorkshire will finally end its snow drought.lowest temps im seeing on east coast is 4.

Beeb haven't been the same for me since they left the Met and joined Meteo. I don't really trust their long term forecasts at all....

[Craigers]

I've always said things will improve each day and they have with 12z upgrades. Tuesdays snow will trend further south.

[Cheese Rice]

Hmmmm I think realistically the most we can expect is a period of frontal snow turning to rain/sleet on the back edge. 

The further north you are the higher the chances of it staying as snow throughout with the highest accumulations north of Yorkshire as per the meto warning for Wednesday. 

Sweet spot in this region looks to be from North Leeds to Harrogate northwards over high ground (a bit of a running theme this winter).

Edited January 30, 2021 by Cheese Rice

[Snowjokes92]

5 minutes ago, Craigers said:

I've always said things will improve each day and they have with 12z upgrades. Tuesdays snow will trend further south.

Yep and it would still keep whole county in firing line and benefit us for wednesday I think. Its a situation that can upgrade provided we see these small trends south and fortunatly for us its  Yorkshire that will be in the sweet spot for it. All before the interest developing afterwards! Grab your thermals guys

Edited January 30, 2021 by Snowjokes92

[winterof79]

First hurdle for Yorkshire 

DO IT FOR YORKSHIRE

[Snowjokes92]

Just now, Cheese Rice said:

Hmmmm I think realistically the most we can expect is a period of frontal snow turning to rain/sleet on the back edge. 

The further north you are the higher the chances of it staying as snow throughout with the highest accumulations north of Yorkshire as per the meto warning for Wednesday. 

Sweet spot in this region looks to be from North Leeds to Harrogate northwards over high ground (a bit of a running theme this winter).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still 60 hours away, will only take a few miles here and there for subtle differences where the boundary is and the trend has been to keep it south, which would likely stop any transition to rain. Will see though

[Snowjokes92]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

First hurdle for Yorkshire 

DO IT FOR YORKSHIRE

Wow!❄❄❄ This is why I don't want it progressing any further north. Thats fine as long as it move south or east slowly after. Not any further north though please haha!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Snowjokes92

[bazookabob]

Much as the ECM is the least good option for next weekend, what's this it's got for tomorrow night?!