Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[The PIT]

I think they can remove the warning here Rainfall further north than forecast and what there is to the west of us isn't getting over the pennines.

[fazzafarrand]

Calder near me already shot up this morning from 1.89 to 2.13m above normal 

[farmans]

12 minutes ago, The PIT said:

I think they can remove the warning here Rainfall further north than forecast and what there is to the west of us isn't getting over the pennines.

We have possibly escaped but could you imagine the pain if this was a band of snow that was forecast to be right on top of us - nailed - only to move north by such a wide margin!  Thank goodness it was just plain old rain!

[cowdog]

Don't look at the radar, the forecast stuff is approaching and looks nasty. That stuff this morning was not meant to be anywhere near that intensity, hopefully the main storm doesn't do the same.

[Harsh Climate]

Keeping a close eye on the river wharfe in Otley, although not rained much here all day from looking at the radar seems to be lashing it down in the dales at the river source.

[Gray-Wolf]

59 minutes ago, fazzafarrand said:

Calder near me already shot up this morning from 1.89 to 2.13m above normal 

Maybe you can let us know if our flood works here in the Upper Calder do impact on how fast/how much water you get these days Fazz?

[Winter Cold]

Yeah next batch arriving now from the SW. Seems placed for the peaks now and South Yorkshire. Really hope that dry slot we've had this morning makes the difference between flooding and just getting away with it....

[winterof79]

06z Euro4 shifted again

[fazzafarrand]

26 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Maybe you can let us know if our flood works here in the Upper Calder do impact on how fast/how much water you get these days Fazz?

Just on the edge of the heavier rain and will let you know 

crept up 2.13 to 2.24m in the last hour will check again about 4pm after this next band

Fazza

Edited January 19, 2021 by fazzafarrand

[CasMan]

It will definately flood near where I am in Allerton Bywater the road between here and Castleford is a flood plain and the main route into Castleford from Leeds side, kippax, garforth etc.. Luckily it won't take out any houses apart from one poor bloke who has a car garage on the road and every time a flood warning comes along he has to move dozens of cars to safety it happens 3 to 4 times a year

 

[cheese]

In December 2015, the significant flooding in Leeds was due to heavy rainfall further upstream. Whether it’s actually raining here or not is mostly irrelevant.

[The PIT]

7mm overnight and possible another 3mm today warning needs moving north and west really and the moment it doesn't warrant a yellow warning even. Maybe tomorrow but not at the present time.

 

River levels nothing much happening

River level information for River Don at Rotherham Tesco - GOV.UK

FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK

---

Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps

River level information for River Sheaf at Sheffield Centenary Works - GOV.UK

FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK

---

Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by The PIT

[Aaron Roberts]

We had a good few hours of dry weather this morning/early afternoon. Which will help a lot! Been raining fairly heavy for a while, but it seems it will become shower in nature for a while here. The bulk of the rain seems to be an hour further north for now, Skipton East and West.

[bazookabob]

Even the more southerly band is now heading up towards Cumbria and Middlesborough, the first one is in Glasgow now! It's just been a showery day here really and the same at work in Cleckheaton. However the ground is very wet so maybe it won't take too much rain to cause problems. I am suprised were under an Amber warning here though. 

[LeeSnowFan]

[fazzafarrand]

1 hour ago, fazzafarrand said:

Just on the edge of the heavier rain and will let you know 

crept up 2.13 to 2.24m in the last hour will check again about 4pm after this next band

Fazza

Up to 2.35m at 4.30pm

 

[Craigers]

3.6m here . I'm glad its not bad for majority of Yorkshire. Signals for February could be the month where ssw will show its hand

[Weather26]

Looks like the rain may have finally arrived here in Sheffield!

[Harsh Climate]

A quick scan through the data and looks like 60% are showing lying snow overnight wednesday into thursday and 40% no snow. That's in yorkshire as a whole

GFS/Icon - no lying snow

Euro 4 and Aprege - some lying snow

Netweather NMM - 4 and 12 and UKV, In favour of some lying snow

Even where they are showing snow does look likely to be the far west of our region most favoured, with a few spots of snow to the north and far east.

 

In my opinion most lying snow looks reserved for the hills and perhaps temporarily to lower ground. I don't expect this massive rain band that keeps pepping up to turn to snow over our region at any time, that will be reserved for parts of scotland and northern most parts of northern england. 

The wrap around of showers as the low deepens and pulls in a north westerly, as it departs is where the risk comes from.

In our favour you can see the deep blues and purple on the 500 uppers, this would allow for a quick cooling once a shower hits and allow falling snow, the problem will be getting it to settle or stick around if it actually achieves the second part. Even with favourable dew point. Reason being, 0 degree isotherm of around 5/600m and 850 uppers of -4 just won't cut the mustard. Once a shower clears away the temperature will quickly rise above freezing, causing any snow cover to quickly melt. Especially with such strong winds, the cold air will be greatly mixed as winds coming off mild irish sea. A fair few members on here will know only too well what they can do! And that's with uppers near -10 

Buy sunset thursday I'm going for a dusting to 1cm - 50m+

200m+ In a few places 1-2cm 

300m+ In a few places 2-5cm.

These estimates mostly apply to west/ north and few isolated parts of east yorkshire. Mostly on a whole there will be no lying snow.

 

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Winter Cold]

Main BBC news had a reporter in Doncaster just now. A bit OTT for me, nothing has happened today. I'm on 6mm and Donny will be even less probably.

South Yorkshire hasn't experienced anything to warrant amber warnings today.

Even look North now saying it's well below where they have seen it in the past. At least they mentioned it didn't rain like they thought

[The PIT]

Another burst of heavy rain on it's way but today didn't even warrant a yellow warning. It should be altered as soon as they showed the heavy rain to the north of the area. Whether it turns up tomorrow who knows. They'll probably remove the warning then it'll chuck it down. Just noticed the heavy rain is just going to the north of me.

Edited January 19, 2021 by The PIT

[The PIT]

2 hours ago, Craigers said:

3.6m here . I'm glad its not bad for majority of Yorkshire. Signals for February could be the month where ssw will show its hand

metres blimey get the ark out. I guess you meant 3.6mm

[Jeremy Shockey]

Arome 12 z

 

May be a surprise for some on Thur morning ( Wolds and Moors perhaps this time ) 

[Gray-Wolf]

The Current rains have 'upped' tomorrows peak river level forecast from the Environment Agency to 4.15m (whilst the plot is still on the up & up) 

I do hope the projections are based on the old river channels performance and not this, as of now,  'untested' enlarged channel!

[Craigers]

24 minutes ago, The PIT said:

metres blimey get the ark out. I guess you meant 3.6mm

Haha yeah woops .  Amber warning took hold over me