Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

It's same with these weather Facebook groups that are on go. People down South ranting that they were up early excited the Snow was coming and it didn't deliver then coming out with comments of 'so much for beast from East then, when front was coming in from West. 

HA! HA!

That made me chuckle.

Edited January 16, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Harsh Climate]

Poor outlook on the models this morning, all 3 big guns gfs, ecm and ukmo all look in favour of a good 10 days of mobile Atlantic orientated weather. Any cold snaps look short lived with a plethora of lows barreling through.

I think we have even taken a step back away from battleground snow events, heavy rainfall and flooding certainly look the name of the game. Maybe a little transient snowfall later in the week on the highest of ground, certainly no repeat of last Thursday, not in the slightest. 

Obviously things could change in the next 48 hours back in our favour but I think anything truly positive for us snow lovers will be deep Fi and not in next 10 days. 

I'm still going for a cold and snowy February when the effect of this SSW has had real chance to filter through downstream, stopping the Atlantic in it's tracks and allowing good height rises to our north and west. But I think another blow or two is needed on the strat before we see this. Patience is needed..

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

HA! HA!

That made me chuckle.

As a northerner who lives down in Surrey, the winters are rubbish snow wise.....but my god the summers are a million times better!

[winterof79]

40 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Poor outlook on the models this morning, all 3 big guns gfs, ecm and ukmo all look in favour of a good 10 days of mobile Atlantic orientated weather. Any cold snaps look short lived with a plethora of lows barreling through.

I think we have even taken a step back away from battleground snow events, heavy rainfall and flooding certainly look the name of the game. Maybe a little transient snowfall later in the week on the highest of ground, certainly no repeat of last Thursday, not in the slightest. 

Obviously things could change in the next 48 hours back in our favour but I think anything truly positive for us snow lovers will be deep Fi and not in next 10 days. 

I'm still going for a cold and snowy February when the effect of this SSW has had real chance to filter through downstream, stopping the Atlantic in it's tracks and allowing good height rises to our north and west. But I think another blow or two is needed on the strat before we see this. Patience is needed..

 

Big/brave call for this week. 10 days of mobile. UKMO 144z

[Craigers]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Big/brave call for this week. 10 days of mobile. UKMO 144z

I believe if the UKMO sticks to its guns for the 12z update and models follow suite and crawl back to UKMO then I will certainly be confident 10 days of mobile Atlantic won't happen.

[bazookabob]

Amber rain warning for all of West and some of south Yorkshire for rain Tuesday and Wednesday. 40-70mm widely, over 100mm on hills. Sounds like floods could be the headline this week. 

[LeeSnowFan]

Issued: 11:45 (UTC) on Sun 17 Jan 2021

A broad area of rainfall will arrive across this region later on Monday and remain across the area for the following 36-48 hours. Rainfall will be heaviest and most persistent across western facing hills. Over the course of this time, 40-70 mm of rainfall is expected to fall widely across the warning area, with the potential for 100-120mm across parts of the southern Pennines and northern Peak District. The rain will lead to rapid melting of any remaining lying snow across the higher peaks which may add a further 5-10 mm. Strong winds will also accompany the rainfall and may add to travelling difficulties across areas higher and more exposed routes.

 

Yorkshire & Humber

East Riding of Yorkshire

North Yorkshire

South Yorkshire

West Yorkshire

[cowdog]

28 minutes ago, bazookabob said:

Amber rain warning for all of West and some of south Yorkshire for rain Tuesday and Wednesday. 40-70mm widely, over 100mm on hills. Sounds like floods could be the headline this week. 

Also covers us in this part of North Yorkshire as well The Aire might end up being the most affected area.

[SouthYorks]

GFS, Para, Icon and ECM all going for 24-36 hours of heavy rain for our region Tuesday and Wednesday.  This then followed by a period of snow on Thursday potentially, with some models keener than others regarding extent and impact wrt altitude.

[Harsh Climate]

56 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

GFS, Para, Icon and ECM all going for 24-36 hours of heavy rain for our region Tuesday and Wednesday.  This then followed by a period of snow on Thursday potentially, with some models keener than others regarding extent and impact wrt altitude.

The models currently have any period of snow thursday restricted to the north east of england, perhaps just skirting inside into the dales of north yorkshire.

A shift 50-100 miles south would certainly bring us into the game. But currently uppers, 0 degree isotherm, dew points and other factors just not conductive for snow for us at this moment.  Even if we did get that shift, would be nothing like last thursday where the snow stuck around all day and beyond.. But not worth going into any detail just yet as can't see it happening. 

[Harsh Climate]

4 hours ago, winterof79 said:

Big/brave call for this week. 10 days of mobile. UKMO 144z

Not a bad looking chart but how it got to that stage is the problem, the low off scotland is moving north and experiences tells me that is never a good thing in winter in terms of sustaining cold/blocking or drawing in colder air. We generally need it dropping south and east, pulling in colder air behind it or allowing blocking to develop in it's place.

From this chart it looks as if that low out the atlantic is going to come through the bottom of our weak atlantic block and draw up milder southwesterlies.

Hopefully this kind of rinse and repeat process shouldn't last more or much more than the 10 days I've suggested. I expect big changes towards cold and blocking at the end of this month

[winterof79]

96z not saying it will happen but its showing on GFS

528 Dam nearby

850s

We're in the ball game at least. 

[Scott Ingham]

I certainly wouldnt be calling off snow chances thursday yet its on a knife edge. It is about 60/40 in term of no snow but we were at this point before we got battered last time

[Harsh Climate]

21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

96z not saying it will happen but its showing on GFS

528 Dam nearby

850s

We're in the ball game at least. 

The problem is, once the localised factors are tipped in favour for snow thursday, according to that say that gfs run, the precipitation has about all but cleared/died away. Of which there will be be a quick rise in tmperature later on in the day to 3/4c. So even if we got that 1 or 2" snowfal, by late afternoon it woud be slop away from highest hills.

What was special about last weeks event is we had heavy precipitation when conditions become optimal from 6am, all the way until about 3pm, so 9 hours continous moderate to heavy snowfall. It would take one almighty herculian swing in data for anything like that being closed to achieved! 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Gray-Wolf]

3 hours ago, bazookabob said:

Amber rain warning for all of West and some of south Yorkshire for rain Tuesday and Wednesday. 40-70mm widely, over 100mm on hills. Sounds like floods could be the headline this week. 

I get the feeling our now completed flood defences will get a good testing on Tues/Weds?

We had our 'Valentines floods' last year if you recall (and the army to help out bolster defences for the next depression that came through) but that was due to the works having breaches further up the Valley so this will be a repeat without the breaches

May the gods help all ports downriver of us as they will never have seen the volumes abut too be unleashed their way!

Edited January 17, 2021 by Gray-Wolf

[winterof79]

ICON s take 

Then the North westerly kicks in

Edited January 17, 2021 by winterof79

[SouthYorks]

And GFS still going for it for Thursday

 

Would be interested in hearing @Kasim Awan views on Thursday for our region.

Edited January 17, 2021 by SouthYorks

[SouthYorks]

9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

ICON s take 

Then the North westerly kicks in

We never seem to do very well from North Westerlies in Barnsley...

Edited January 17, 2021 by SouthYorks

[fazzafarrand]

3 hours ago, cowdog said:

Also covers us in this part of North Yorkshire as well The Aire might end up being the most affected area.

River Calder currently 2.5mtrs over normal level Methley WF6 area

[Jeremy Shockey]

Icon 12z precipitation t84

Icon 12z precipitation t87

High Ground could do very well in the very early hours of Thur morning as much colder air digs in ( according to the Icon ). Kasim in Buxton for example , but also favoured locations with altitude in Yorkshire.

Saturday / Sunday also looking promising more generally for our region as the -8 isotherm pays us a brief visit perhaps on a NorthWesterly flow.

GFS 12z 23rd Dec

 

[winterof79]

45 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

We never seem to do very well from North Westerlies in Barnsley...

No ,we do okay here but it has to be a decent polar flow

[Aaron Roberts]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I get the feeling our now completed flood defences will get a good testing on Tues/Weds?

We had our 'Valentines floods' last year if you recall (and the army to help out bolster defences for the next depression that came through) but that was due to the works having breaches further up the Valley so this will be a repeat without the breaches

May the gods help all ports downriver of us as they will never have seen the volumes abut too be unleashed their way!

Hopefully it will be ok down in the valley, so much water on the moors at the moment because of the snow melt....worrying that this is coming so quickly after all the water has been released from the snow melt. Hopefully we won't hear the flood sirens! Take care fella

[winterof79]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I get the feeling our now completed flood defences will get a good testing on Tues/Weds?

We had our 'Valentines floods' last year if you recall (and the army to help out bolster defences for the next depression that came through) but that was due to the works having breaches further up the Valley so this will be a repeat without the breaches

May the gods help all ports downriver of us as they will never have seen the volumes abut too be unleashed their way!

Hope so mate i travel through from Cragg Vale regularly and have followed your trials and tribulations .It has been along drawn out effort so let us see if it was worth all the effort.

[winterof79]

Why look any further 

[Gray-Wolf]

3 hours ago, Aaron Roberts said:

Hopefully it will be ok down in the valley, so much water on the moors at the moment because of the snow melt....worrying that this is coming so quickly after all the water has been released from the snow melt. Hopefully we won't hear the flood sirens! Take care fella

Since the finally closed the walls where the old bridge in 'Royd was placed I've been waiting for the kind of event that would have have my antenna twitching & I believe this will be it?

I will be monitoring both rainfall and river levels through tues/weds!

If we're OK then i'll be checking downstream starting at Luddendenfoot & on through to Selby!

If we don't cop for it then areas who have not seen defences beefed up may suffer in our stead?