Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[adrianh]

Intensity out in the north sea is definitely increasing now and also filling out further north

[Just Before Dawn]

Another light graupel shower currently - the wind today has really dried everything up so it's blowing around like sand.

Gritters are out (they've been past twice) and a couple of snow ploughs went through about 20 minutes ago, presumably being re-positioned, so Lincs County Council must have had a head's up about the overnight period and tomorrow. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Just Before Dawn

[Kasim Awan]

Ok folks here is my current assessment for tonight and Monday.

Vorticity (convection) is building now, and will continue to build overnight. It will remain highest over Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire and South Derbyshire which are currently favoured for high totals of 10-20cm. Locally 25cm can't be ruled out in the vicinity of this area, say Chesterfield or south Sheffield area.

I am expecting moderate scattered showers further north into the Peak District, East Manchester, East Cheshire, East Cumbria and further north into "central" and West Yorkshire. Here, a covering of up to 5cm is possible by the morning, especially above 200 metres. The instability will wave northwards during the morning so I can see an area of more organized converge move into north Sheffield, Glossop, East Manchester area (more of us in this forum) through Monday, and potentially Monday evening as the streamer further south reduces in it's convective potential. This will result in more convection further north due to convective laws, and subsequently more snow showers late Monday into early Tuesday for Halifax, Huddersfield, Manchester. This is unlikely to be as intense as the streamer further south, the Humber > Chesterfield > Ashbourne one, however will be enough to produce a 2-5cm covering  and in places 10cm >200m in the East.

This pattern, I expect, will be quite repetitive through Monday and even Monday evening. So I can see further big accumulations in "the south", - relative to us, and relatively short lived heavy showers further north., before a switch to more northerly convection through Monday.

As a prognosis of streamer activity, uncertainty here is relatively high so I expect this to "go wrong" in some regard, for example the switch further north may occur earlier on, or the two streamers may exist in tandem

In terms of western progression, fortunately wind speed and instability is ample to allow showers to climb over the Pennines now. Lighter yes but enough for accumulation. So in general a dusting to 2cm locally west of the M6 > east of the M6 1-5cm, east of the 100 metre contour in the East Manchester region > 2-8cm, and 5-15cm over and on the Eastern flank of the Pennines even to low levels.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, Liam Taylor said:

What about Doncaster mate 

Not great first few early hours. Looks better after 6am onwards and fabulous at 3pm. Afternoon tomorrow is when it really kicks off. Looks like banding and organisation so we need to see from now onwards as thinga improving every hour

[sparky1972]

1 minute ago, Just Before Dawn said:

Another light graupel shower currently - the wind today has really dried everything up so it's blowing around like sand.

Gritters are out (they've been past twice) and a couple of snow ploughs went through about 20 minutes ago, presumably being re-positioned, so Lincs County Council must have had some head's up about the overnight period and tomorrow. 

nothing of note here, hopefully the wind will drop overnight and see if that helps.

[Kasim Awan]

Looks like the streamer tonight is setting up 5 miles to my south.

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Arome surprises me as it shows more streamers for Northern South Yorkshire parts into Leeds.

 

Really ill take a look!

[sorepaw1]

14 minutes ago, Tinker Bell said:

Nowt in the East yet 

Radar looking better for East Yorkshire fingers crossed for you guys.

[Mikey Skins]

Snowing in North Notts now. 

Blowing all over the place in the strong wind. Its light but I really think we are in a prime location moving forwards. Just like 2010

[Kasim Awan]

I expect the radar over West Yorkshire to look like it does over Fife in around 6 hours

[Richard Lake]

A dusting of snow here in the last 30 minutes or so, radar looks interesting for now and overnight; that wind is quite something too.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Richard Lake

[Craigers]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Really ill take a look!

The clusters of streamers more north in general if I am looking at it correctly

[swfc]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I expect the radar over West Yorkshire to look like it does over Fife in around 6 hours

How long before snow hits Sheffield Kasim tia. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, swfc said:

How long before snow hits Sheffield Kasim tia. 

Around 1500 years when Humans finally find the technology which can spawn snow robots that can hit people.

[Kasim Awan]

Ignore my ridiculous sense of humour, looking at the Arpege / comparing to current radar I'd say 3-4am before convection reaches an optimal level there

[Just Before Dawn]

3 minutes ago, Richard Lake said:

A dusting of snow here in the last 30 minutes or so, radar looks interesting for now and overnight; that wind is quite something too.

Is that Cleethorpes or in The Isle, Richard?

Love the youtube channel BTW - subscribed!

[clee_snow]

Blowing all over the place in the strong wind in cleethores wind is just to stong for it to have a chance of settling  need to wind to drop this coming week or this is yet a another damp squid of a easterly snow wise

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I expect the radar over West Yorkshire to look like it does over Fife in around 6 hours

Are you referring to the clump in the north sea to the east of Hull?

[Sara_south_yorks]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Around 1500 years when Humans finally find the technology which can spawn snow robots that can hit people.

Aww that long? If only it was sooner, they could really spice lockdown up

[Richard Lake]

5 minutes ago, Just Before Dawn said:

Is that Cleethorpes or in The Isle, Richard?

Love the youtube channel BTW - subscribed!

Cleethorpes... and thanks! Lots of ride videos in there, love the Wolds.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Richard Lake

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Are you referring to the clump in the north sea to the east of Hull?

Yes, what I am referring to is that this will gradually develop more of a showery nature with better defined precipitation once the proper convection starts.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Yes, what I am referring to is that this will gradually develop more of a showery nature with better defined precipitation once the proper convection starts.

Thanks Kasim. Where does orographic precipitation come into this for those like me on the eastern side of the pennines? From past experience, it's very difficult for us not to have a good dumping in situations like this. 

[Scott Ingham]

This streamer is widening by the hour.

Its covering a way bigger area than i expected so more of us could be in the game for longer!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

This streamer is widening by the hour.

Its covering a way bigger area than i expected so more of us could be in the game for longer!

Which radar do you use Scott?

[Craigers]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This streamer is widening by the hour.

Its covering a way bigger area than i expected so more of us could be in the game for longer!

Following GEMS idea?