Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah i wouldnt ideally id like to see that wind direction change but its all too complex to worry. 

We shoukd be happy to be in a pattern thats cold enough to deliver snow!

Indeed got to be great full for that, at least it won't be marginal! And some dam good radar watching to come

[Aiden2020]

Thanks god it’s nearly time for a cold spell I hope for a lot of happy memories for us all

[Hullsnow87]

The mega snow totals seem to have disappeared unfortunately shame

[Aiden2020]

3 minutes ago, Hullsnow87 said:

The mega snow totals seem to have disappeared unfortunately shame

It’s all just about radar watching now Im thinking it’s gonna be amazing

[Sara_south_yorks]

Aww is it going bad now? 

I hope not as its got soooo close   

I have everything crossed for everyone to still see some decent snow totals!

[Craigers]

1 minute ago, snow*please said:

Aww is it going bad now? 

I hope not as its got soooo close   

I have everything crossed for everyone to still see some decent snow totals!

Nothing has changed really all steam ahead. 

[Sara_south_yorks]

Just now, Craigers said:

Nothing has changed really all steam ahead. 

Thank you. I cannot read the charts myself, been here years and just cant pick it up, so i rely on other peoples views on how it is looking. 

Glad its all still looking good, i cannot wait

[Tim A]

50 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah I reckon so. I think at very worst we at least get a snowy breakdown.

You seen UKMO, I'm a tad dissapointed that it shows more of a SEE to SE feed tuesday, this could cut the duration of heavy frequent snow showers to yorkshire/linconshire..   And you guessed it clobbering north east england/south east scotland instead...

Hope this isn't a trend. The E to NEE showed yesterday and this morning looked perfect.

Yes GFS precip charts are perfect but they haven't taken into account watch such a wind shift towards the SE would do.

Is ESE all that bad though for us though?  As long as its easterly enough for showers to stream north of the wash/East Anglia, we should be ok? Sure I can recall decent snow with an ESE wind before, at least there is no significant high ground , sometimes the NYM block us a bit with NE winds.

Anyway UKMO looks a bit of an outlier wind direction wise .

Edited February 5, 2021 by Tim A

[cheese]

1 minute ago, Tim A said:

Is ESE all that bad though for us though?  As long as its easterly enough for showers to stream north of the wash, we should be ok? Sure I can recall decent snow with an ESE wind before, at least there is no significant high ground , sometimes the NYM block us a bit with NE winds.

Anyway UKMO looks a bit of an outlier wind direction wise .

I don’t think ESE is bad either, I’ve definitely seen snow showers moving in a SE to NW direction before. As you say the NYM can block snow with NE winds.

[Guest]

ARPEGE 12z modelling streamers in from the east for Sunday - Wednesday

 

[joggs]

As a punt I'm going for the following.

Ne of the region- should fair best with anything from 5cm to 20cm.

South region I fear will fair ok especially early on due to the no means land band. A dusting upto 10cm in favoured spots(high ground and or any streamer.

West region more likely to see showers than south imo and odd streamer setting up. Places near the pennines could fair well. 5cm to 15cm.

East of the region should see the most showers but losing intensity at times but under streamers not bad. 3cm 15cm.

Se of region. Worst for me due to no man's land band and winds turning more unfavourably imo. Dusting upto 5cm.

Now I'm slightly on the cautious side so nothing less but wiggle room for slightly more.

Anyway, goodluck everyone. Wish we could all receive a foot+

Edited February 5, 2021 by joggs

[Hullsnow87]

Gem does show a Humber streamer not moving really for 90 hours so we shall see if so I would say east and South Yorkshire to be pasted if correct could be massive snow totals in these areas

[fazzafarrand]

2 minutes ago, Hullsnow87 said:

Gem does show a Humber streamer not moving really for 90 hours so we shall see if so I would say east and South Yorkshire to be pasted if correct could be massive snow totals in these areas

Hope so straight line straight down A63 / M62 IMBY

[winterof79]

Can i just say that the wind direction does not follow the isobars. So if the isobars show directly from east  the wind  would be from north of east. Hence south east isobars would be from the East. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by winterof79

[bryan629]

Remember that there also may be instability in the flow so not just always perhaps about organised streamers.. the uppers are conducive to creating little troughs too. Watch out for little bumps and kinks in the flow 

Just as an example using tonight faxes.. if anything i noticed the little twiglets have disappeared as shown earlier , instead now showing a little bump over Baltic sea/Denmark area... circled 

A little later there`s a trough developing ...circled

So just to illustrate.. There is always a chance there may be disturbances in the flow Luke !! 

[SouthYorks]

ICON 15z is a big upgrade for tomorrow afternoon/evening, bringing the snow earlier and slightly more East of the Pennines instead of central down the spine as shown on earlier runs.

Edited February 5, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Bradowl]

Just come across this that's been issued, for tomorrow up to midnight. 

[SouthYorks]

7 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Remember that there also may be instability in the flow so not just always perhaps about organised streamers.. the uppers are conducive to creating little troughs too. Watch out for little bumps and kinks in the flow 

Just as an example using tonight faxes.. if anything i noticed the little twiglets have disappeared as shown earlier , instead now showing a little bump over Baltic sea/Denmark area... circled 

A little later there`s a trough developing ...circled

So just to illustrate.. There is always a chance there may be disturbances in the flow Luke !! 

Interesting given GEM last 2 runs has had the source of a Humber Streamer from the Baltic Sea.  See my posts this morning and this afternoon

Edited February 5, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Danns]

Following on from @SouthYorks,10pm Saturday, from the MOD thread. Icon 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Danns

[Danns]

Icon 15z puts some heavy precipitation into South Yorkshire/North Derbyshire close of play tomorrow night, much of the region to have  seen something by early Sunday morning. ?? 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Danns

[Craigers]

Let's hope gfs 18z shows this too  

[bryan629]

10 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

Interesting given GEM last 2 runs has had the source of a Humber Streamer from the Baltic Sea.  See my posts this miring and this afternoon

Absolutley... what really struck me with the Gem ..  as the current low began to pull away south/south east so the flow began to be pulled with it taking the streamers further south ( not far mind you ) then as the new low began its undercut it pushed the streamers back north again.

 

[SouthYorks]

8 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Let's hope gfs 18z shows this too  

For same time I posted above.  It’s the same track but maybe not quite the same intensity.  Still looks good though as intensity is shown to increase.

[TyphoonNow]

So does that mean the colder air will arrive earlier than forecast on the Met/BBC apps?

[Bradowl]

Some green showing out at sea from Newcastle/Sunderland, I think the colder air is getting closer.