Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Winter Cold]

Come on ECM!!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Steel City Skies said:

Exactly! That's why we are like we are 

Loving the ECM this evening. Thanks guys for sharing those stonking charts  

The ecm is megq for prolonged cold! Not keen on the switch to south easterly winds on tuesday but looks short lived

[super_claret]

BBC forecast just now was showing Sunday as dry with occasional snow flurries in the North.

Hope they are wrong!

[johnholmes]

55 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Not even with the trends to be further south and underestimating the block to the north?

'fraid not, the upper air pattern, various parameters in the upper air, mean it can do two things, stagnate pretty much as it is ir tend to meve, ENE/NE. Of course that is not taking into account the dense cold air V the less dense mild air scenario I posted earlier today. it may well take the next system running through the Atlantic to break through that, again though it may only be temporary. It is incredibly complex and quite finely balanced.

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, super_claret said:

BBC forecast just now was showing Sunday as dry with occasional snow flurries in the North.

Hope they are wrong!

I'd go completely on charts and what people on here say. Ignore the bbc. Yes it's nice when they showing snow graphics over ya house, but they are so bad and inaccurate it's laughable.

Charts show lot's of showers sunday!

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The ecm is megq for prolonged cold! Not keen on the switch to south easterly winds on tuesday but looks short lived

Yep I noticed the switch to south easterly as well. A drier air source unfortunately. Let's hope we can tap in before that though. 

[Harsh Climate]

9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The ecm is megq for prolonged cold! Not keen on the switch to south easterly winds on tuesday but looks short lived

Yeah looks good, I'm very happy with it's 168 hour chart. There's not a chance that would lead to what it shows at 192 hours though with the atlantic steamrolling through like a dose of salts! 

[winterof79]

Are we heading for a scandi or a heat wave....Not interested after Wednesday/Thurs at mo

Edited February 5, 2021 by winterof79

[Harsh Climate]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Are we heading for a scandi or a heat wave....Not interested after Wednesday/Thurs at mo

 

I think the models are underestimating strength of block and cold pool to east, going with default and having atlantic steamroll through.. I think it will be a slower affair and take until the weekend for it to remain dominance, if it actually does..

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Are we heading for a scandi or a heat wave....Not interested after Wednesday/Thurs at mo

ECM got a good handle on things in the 5 to 6 day period on this run but its performance this winter post day 6 is woeful. In fact that goes for the last 2 or 3 years as well. Not as good as it used to be in the long 7 to 10 day range. 

[cheese]

Did anyone post the GEM snowfall chart? 
 

[Craigers]

20 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

'fraid not, the upper air pattern, various parameters in the upper air, mean it can do two things, stagnate pretty much as it is ir tend to meve, ENE/NE. Of course that is not taking into account the dense cold air V the less dense mild air scenario I posted earlier today. it may well take the next system running through the Atlantic to break through that, again though it may only be temporary. It is incredibly complex and quite finely balanced.

Thank you John makes total sense now  

[winterof79]

Crikey there will be a pampa shortage in the Mod thread if that came to fruition

[Scott Ingham]

16 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah looks good, I'm very happy with it's 168 hour chart. There's not a chance that would lead to what it shows at 192 hours though with the atlantic steamrolling through like a dose of salts! 

Me too! Tomorrows 144 lets see where we are. Leg room for this spell to persist in my opinion! Scandi or icelandic heights with 2 days of high pressure holding on to the cold prior are still on the table in my eyes

[sparky1972]

More disappointing output and met office forecast for the week ahead for here, heavy rain showers and rain all day tomorrow, then cloudy and dry for the whole of next week although cold, on the plus side vaccine supplies should not be held up, and that is far more important.

[Harsh Climate]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Me too! Tomorrows 144 lets see where we are. Leg room for this spell to persist in my opinion! Scandi or icelandic heights with 2 days of high pressure holding on to the cold prior are still on the table in my eyes

Yeah I reckon so. I think at very worst we at least get a snowy breakdown.

You seen UKMO, I'm a tad dissapointed that it shows more of a SEE to SE feed tuesday, this could cut the duration of heavy frequent snow showers to yorkshire/linconshire..   And you guessed it clobbering north east england/south east scotland instead...

Hope this isn't a trend. The E to NEE showed yesterday and this morning looked perfect.

Yes GFS precip charts are perfect but they haven't taken into account watch such a wind shift towards the SE would do.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

More disappointing output and met office forecast for the week ahead for here, heavy rain showers and rain all day tomorrow, then cloudy and dry for the whole of next week although cold

I'm not sure why you're putting so much faith in these sorts of forecasts in such a complex set up, with shower distribution hardly decided upon for Sunday let alone next week.

 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah I reckon so. I think at very worst we at least get a snowy breakdown.

You seen UKMO, I'm a tad dissapointed that it shows more of a SEE to SE feed tuesday, this could cut the duration of heavy frequent snow showers to yorkshire/linconshire..   And you guessed it clobbering north east england/south east scotland instead...

Hope this isn't a trend. The E to NEE showed yesterday and this morning looked perfect.

Yes GFS precip charts are perfect but they haven't taken into account watch such a wind shift towards the SE would do.

Met Office online forecasts still have NE or ENE for here? Only switching more to the SE for Thursday.

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Met Office online forecasts still have NE or ENE for here? Only switching more to the SE for Thursday.

That would be nice but I don't any automated forecast

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

That would be nice but I don't any automated forecast

Oh I know me neither, more so when it comes to the symbols. The wind direction will come from their own model though?

[Scott Ingham]

15 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah I reckon so. I think at very worst we at least get a snowy breakdown.

You seen UKMO, I'm a tad dissapointed that it shows more of a SEE to SE feed tuesday, this could cut the duration of heavy frequent snow showers to yorkshire/linconshire..   And you guessed it clobbering north east england/south east scotland instead...

Hope this isn't a trend. The E to NEE showed yesterday and this morning looked perfect.

Yes GFS precip charts are perfect but they haven't taken into account watch such a wind shift towards the SE would do.

Yeah its not the best wind direction for us.

Subtle movements of the pattern have big impacts on snow totals. 

It is still possible off this direction with a good convergence zone though. We had a flash warning in march 18 from this wind direction when one set up

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Oh I know me neither, more so when it comes to the symbols. The wind direction will come from their own model though?

Yes I'd assume so, maybe they are from earlier though and not the most recent 12z data.

Don't want to worry anyone regarding tue-wed being dry or frequent snow showers but I will be viewing tomorrow mornings runs from behind my chair. 

This could go a bit wrong but if all data reverts back to what was shown this morning we should be home and dry (except locally lol )

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah its not the best wind direction for us.

Subtle movements of the pattern have big impacts on snow totals. 

It is still possible off this direction with a good convergence zone though. We had a flash warning in march 18 from this wind direction when one set up

Yeah like you say something could still set-up and big but for me that's too focus on one area and I wouldn't count my chickens on me winning that jackpot lol

Edited February 5, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Harsh Climate]

Looking at gfs essemble mean, it does look good, but could go either way regarding NE to SE corrections.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah like you say something could still set-up and big but for me that's too focus on one area and I wouldn't count my chickens on me winning that jackpot lol

Yeah i wouldnt ideally id like to see that wind direction change but its all too complex to worry. 

We shoukd be happy to be in a pattern thats cold enough to deliver snow!