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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

ICON 12z has adjusted the snow on Sunday back South again compared to same time on 6z, bringing it more into line with Euro4 6z.  Here for comparison.

632D44DE-F213-429E-AAD2-0A0DCF7FE26F.png

33809912-520E-4BB6-946C-861E642F28E5.png
 

You can also see how the streamer showers also move South, so for me this is a positive move.

Edited by SouthYorks
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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

I agree with you guys about tomorrow evening. Hopefully we can all see a decent covering to get us started. Then all the showers for the next 4 or 5 days can keep adding to it. Nothing should be melting!

Meto showing rain to snow by 6pm sat here too now, and lasting a while. Fingers crossed!

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Bolsover, Chesterfield, Derbyshire 120m asl
  • Location: Bolsover, Chesterfield, Derbyshire 120m asl

Certainly looking interesting her Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

4D32FB9B-2737-4979-946D-33F24CAF280E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
3 minutes ago, wrcstarlet said:

Certainly looking interesting her Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

4D32FB9B-2737-4979-946D-33F24CAF280E.png

Just to show how utterly pointless these apps are in these sort of scenarios, here's mine for literally no more than 5 miles down the road. 

Screenshot_20210205_153638.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bolsover, Chesterfield, Derbyshire 120m asl
  • Location: Bolsover, Chesterfield, Derbyshire 120m asl
5 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Just to show how utterly pointless these apps are in these sort of scenarios, here's mine for literally no more than 5 miles down the road. 

Screenshot_20210205_153638.jpg

Well I do hope we get something memorable. Would love to wake up to my car buried again like 2010!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
12 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

so many twist n turns  my nerves! someone saying sunday a dud for most of uk now! ...  

Met Office and GFS have advertised greater risk for Yorkshire on Mon-Tues since Wednesday but generally showers are underdone so don't worry and just radar watch.

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Posted
  • Location: Penistone - NW of Sheff, W of Barnsley - 244m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny Days - Snow - Warm, Dry Days, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Penistone - NW of Sheff, W of Barnsley - 244m asl

we're currently in the process of "activating" any spare carers we have in preparation for sunday onwards.

Because it's twisting and changing constantly,  we just need to be sure we can deploy as many people as possible to try to keep staff to their local area. at least they can walk between calls then.

can't we just build a super-super-super computer that can get weather patterns down and predictions 100% please? 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
7 minutes ago, Stocksbridgesheff said:

Is it just me or is there a very south/south east bias on the model thread!?

On the forum generally outside of regionals. Londoners always feel entitled though.

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Posted
  • Location: Penistone - NW of Sheff, W of Barnsley - 244m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny Days - Snow - Warm, Dry Days, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Penistone - NW of Sheff, W of Barnsley - 244m asl
1 minute ago, Stocksbridgesheff said:

Is it just me or is there a very south/south east bias on the model thread!?

nah, surely you can't be serious?

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
5 minutes ago, Stocksbridgesheff said:

Is it just me or is there a very south/south east bias on the model thread!?

Please read

 

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Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
2 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Just to show how utterly pointless these apps are in these sort of scenarios, here's mine for literally no more than 5 miles down the road. 

Screenshot_20210205_153638.jpg

As there's not manual human input based on hi-res charts these apps are nearly useless. 8th Jan my area had 15cm+ of snow for 10h and the METO app had overcast and sleet symbols most of the time. And I'm saying "nearly" useless because at least they can provide a general idea of the timeframe you can expect some kind of ppn. 

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image.thumb.png.5bca02d95b1b323dabb33527492ebc57.png

ICON more encouraging for us I think as the snow risk from Sunday/Monday's band is further south, This will hopefully keep us away from the corridor of crud just to the north of the band, freeing us all up to receive showers streaming in from the North Sea  Ignore the likely lack of snow on these precip charts as they will not model convective snow showers accurately at all.

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
12 minutes ago, stupotlee said:

we're currently in the process of "activating" any spare carers we have in preparation for sunday onwards.

Because it's twisting and changing constantly,  we just need to be sure we can deploy as many people as possible to try to keep staff to their local area. at least they can walk between calls then.

can't we just build a super-super-super computer that can get weather patterns down and predictions 100% please? 

I've read space carers twice. I think I need another coffee. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
17 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

image.thumb.png.5bca02d95b1b323dabb33527492ebc57.png

ICON more encouraging for us I think as the snow risk from Sunday/Monday's band is further south, This will hopefully keep us away from the corridor of crud just to the north of the band, freeing us all up to receive showers streaming in from the North Sea  Ignore the likely lack of snow on these precip charts as they will not model convective snow showers accurately at all.

It’s definitely a bit further South but if you watch the the run to the end, it still has it edging North too far in my view the result that it predicts a dearth of showers into South and West Yorkshire/Lincolnshire.  I’d prefer to see a further adjustment South... Lets see what the other models show and then onto the 18z.

Also, just to add, the Meto Amber warning area for Sunday may also provide some guidance as to where they think the most persistent snow will occur (although the warnings haven’t been that great for accuracy this winter!) 

Edited by SouthYorks
Add comment re Met warning
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GFS 12z looks good for increasing amounts of precipitation through Sunday and into Monday from the east. I know it needs to be taken with a big pinch of salt but at least it models snow for the region.

 image.thumb.png.2261d16a1cb99277e8c5b0ab45532379.png

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Calm warm and sunny 😎
  • Location: Chesterfield 115m ASL

Snow chances receding now according to Met. Hopefully they’ll surprise us with a nice streamer like 2010! 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Looking at radar I think the Scottish front has begun it's great march south. 

Southern extent today has moved from north of Durham to south of Middlesbrough and it's moved westward.

Now 1C as far south as Drumalbin.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
30 minutes ago, Stocksbridgesheff said:

Is it just me or is there a very south/south east bias on the model thread!?

Paul was good to nip this in the bud mate. 

This is the place to be next few days

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Paul was good to nip this in the bud mate. 

This is the place to be next few days

I posted a link to the letter.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Paul was good to nip this in the bud mate. 

This is the place to be next few days

If you have any spare snow over there, I have plenty of room over here to store it.

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Calm warm and sunny 😎
  • Location: Chesterfield 115m ASL

Daft question but where is tomorrow’s front now? Is it over Europe or not yet materialised? 

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