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Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I dont know about snow amounts mate Kasim doesnt and neithet do the Met. If they could forecast in detail snow amounts we would have had the last minute orange warning 4 days prior.

All we know is its going to be cold enough to snow. Upper air temperatures and thicknesses are conducive to convection off a warm sea and we have strong enough easterly winds off the north sea.

What i can say is if you havnt hit ay least 6 inches after 4 days of east winds in this upper air set up youve been very very unlucky! 

Best advice? 

Forecast one day at a time.

So lets look at friday night for saturday night.

Saturday 12z for Sunday

Sunday 12z for Monday

No reason to be anything other than excited

This coming spell reminds me of February 79, we got totally pasted, similar set up , should be some epic falls i  would think.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
10 minutes ago, Steady Easterly said:

This coming spell reminds me of February 79, we got totally pasted, similar set up , should be some epic falls i  would think.

History tells us we will do very very well out of this set up.

2018 and 2010 case in point 

2010 looked dry until 48 hours before the easterly i remember it very very well

Then 24 hours before total accumalted snowfall in south yorkshire was showing widely 20cm+ all over south and north yorkshire.

This is as good a position as we could be in

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Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham
2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

History tells us we will do very very well out of this set up.

2018 and 2010 case in point 

2010 looked dry until 48 hours before the easterly i remember it very very well

Then 24 hours before total accumalted snowfall in south yorkshire was showing widely 20cm+ all over south and north yorkshire.

This is as good a position as we could be in

It is indeed, sub-10 850 s, very strong flow, kinks galore, exciting times.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
50 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

A little over 48 hours to go until the fun and games start!

I'm plumping for somewhere in our region below 200m getting 30-40cms before this spell is over and I would not be surprised to see somewhere on high ground getting 60cms plus......

Sounds outrageous but feasible given the set up I reckon ❄❄❄

48 hours? I'm hoping to see something wintry dropping from heavens during daylight hours on Saturday, I think back edge Snow was mentioned last night. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln
  • Location: Lincoln
8 hours ago, HellItsHot said:

Yeah but given all the talk of a foot of snow I wasn’t expecting fewer snow symbols than yesterday!

Down to 0 symbols! 
 

Are we sure it’s not a blowtorch south-westerly we’re expecting?

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Looking good for us in Yorkshire right up to next Friday on latest ECM! -10 uppers even then. Love it!!

What a week we've got coming up, can't wait to see the snow depths we've got by then ☃️❄️ ?️ 

Edit: they do reduce over Friday actually to less but, still very cold!

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Localised forecast not looking too bad.  

364822771_Screenshot_20210204-1849532.thumb.png.ed04c3c095fe12a526c632b515466c01.png

Models are firming up on a streamer on Tuesday morning, can't really say where will hit the jackpot. Currently parts of West And North Yorkshire but could easily switch to South Yorkshire. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Temperatures ≤25ºC ≥10ºC.
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL

I wonder if it was a streamer that brought the snow here during the 1991 easterly?

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Posted
  • Location: Brigg, North Lincolnshire
  • Location: Brigg, North Lincolnshire

Just catching up with all today's developments so firstly poped into the model thread to discover: 

'My main concern is the latest Metoffice weekend forecast which is showing potential rain for the far southeast for Sunday'.

So having given up I've come back here to read some great posts and analysis

Met office have rain for Brigg Saturday, nothing Sunday,some light snow showers Monday.

But as other posters have said, these easterlies do deliver for this area and I expect frequent snow showers Sunday afternoon onwards and plenty of snowmen in the garden by Wedensday

Fingres crossed/touch wood/etc

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

I'm going the cautious route until I see the radar on the day because as 2018 proved, nothing is guaranteed. That was literally the perfect setup but we barely managed 1cm here throughout the entire spell.

In my experience, for around here what we don't want is that front being positioned too far north or it will kill off any shower activity. Uppers are -10C so for the immediate lowland areas close to the coast its going to be getting to 2-3C during the day so if the showers are light they wont accumulate as much then. The easterlies in 2010 and 2013 were quite similar, with very slow thaws during the day.

I think as long as the wind has a slight northerly component we'll be fine. If we start getting a more ESE direction (as seems to be the case on Tues) the longer sea track will favour areas further north and we'll lose the showers here.

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

It could be a bit wild on Sunday with low temperatures a brisk/gusty wind with snow showers. Looking at a 'feels like' temperature of - 7c with wind chill. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
32 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Localised forecast not looking too bad.  

364822771_Screenshot_20210204-1849532.thumb.png.ed04c3c095fe12a526c632b515466c01.png

Models are firming up on a streamer on Tuesday morning, can't really say where will hit the jackpot. Currently parts of West And North Yorkshire but could easily switch to South Yorkshire. 

No reason why there can’t be multiple streamers I suppose 

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Posted
  • Location: Hessle, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Hessle, East Yorkshire
11 minutes ago, reef said:

I'm going the cautious route until I see the radar on the day because as 2018 proved, nothing is guaranteed. That was literally the perfect setup but we barely managed 1cm here throughout the entire spell.

In my experience, for around here what we don't want is that front being positioned too far north or it will kill off any shower activity. Uppers are -10C so for the immediate lowland areas close to the coast its going to be getting to 2-3C during the day so if the showers are light they wont accumulate as much then. The easterlies in 2010 and 2013 were quite similar, with very slow thaws during the day.

I think as long as the wind has a slight northerly component we'll be fine. If we start getting a more ESE direction (as seems to be the case on Tues) the longer sea track will favour areas further north and we'll lose the showers here.

Agreed if we get few cms be happy anything else is bonus 2018 was strange i think we got bit more then 1cm but the snow seem to dissapear inbetween falls even though was subzero maybe the strong winds it like it just evoparated. We can dream of feb 86 or 91 shame i was to young to remember both aslong as it doesnt turn out like Feb 2005 though that was way more marginal then this 

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL

Just to show what Sunday onwards could look like on radar. This was 2009 Easterly with the E/NE flow. Look how the streams hit Yorkshire and gives you an idea what could happen. 

received_1021787311563969.thumb.jpeg.d6d2837203513d04a92fb72b046e7ddd.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
3 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Just to show what Sunday onwards could look like on radar. This was 2009 Easterly with the E/NE flow. Look how the streams hit Yorkshire and gives you an idea what could happen. 

received_1021787311563969.thumb.jpeg.d6d2837203513d04a92fb72b046e7ddd.jpeg

Ah what a great day that was Craig! Non stop beauty's packing in off the North Sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
29 minutes ago, reef said:

I'm going the cautious route until I see the radar on the day because as 2018 proved, nothing is guaranteed. That was literally the perfect setup but we barely managed 1cm here throughout the entire spell.

In my experience, for around here what we don't want is that front being positioned too far north or it will kill off any shower activity. Uppers are -10C so for the immediate lowland areas close to the coast its going to be getting to 2-3C during the day so if the showers are light they wont accumulate as much then. The easterlies in 2010 and 2013 were quite similar, with very slow thaws during the day.

I think as long as the wind has a slight northerly component we'll be fine. If we start getting a more ESE direction (as seems to be the case on Tues) the longer sea track will favour areas further north and we'll lose the showers here.

I think we did well in Hull 2010 mate and 1986 IIRC was quality when I lived in Beverley. I think we'll do fine. Be about time as well

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
30 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Just to show what Sunday onwards could look like on radar. This was 2009 Easterly with the E/NE flow. Look how the streams hit Yorkshire and gives you an idea what could happen. 

received_1021787311563969.thumb.jpeg.d6d2837203513d04a92fb72b046e7ddd.jpeg

You don't have any screenshots of Dec 1st 2010 by any chance to you buddy? never seen the radar for that day! 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
1 minute ago, ChezWeather said:

You don't have any screenshots of Dec 1st 2010 by any chance to you buddy? never seen the radar for that day! 

Here you go:

1stdec2010.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

First predictions for this upcoming cold spell taken from my weather page.

 

Early weather watch 06/2/2021 21z - 10/2/2021.

*Whole eastern side of England

2 Areas of interest:

*Yellow Zone- Area of snow moving south saturday night being replaced by snow showers, more frequent monday onwards!

*Orange Zone- A spell of snow pushing into south eastern areas sunday will expand northwards throughout the day eventually affecting as far north as midlands/linconshire, parts of south yorkshire. After that possibility of snow showers/ troughs or disturbances but too early to pinpoint.

These warnings will be updated as events unfold and will most likely be upgraded to amber or even a red in the odd localised spot.

SNOW TOTALS:

Yellow area - widespread totals of 10-20cm. ~Must be noted though where streamers and convergence zones develop we may be measuring in inches and not cm, I would not be suprised with totals around 30cm in a few places and higher ground as much as 45cm, early indications would have North yorkshire moors and Tan hill as the epicentres. As ever showers can be hit and miss, some areas will do well, whilst 5 miles down the road there is considerably less snow. Although 10-20cm widespread a few unlucky or lucky (however you see it) locations may ony have 2-5 cm) I'm confident though everywhere should see a decent covering.

And an extra side note - Early indications and fax charts show a convergence zone setting up shop north yorkshire monday afternoon. This area of intense shower activity could be a little further north or south, stay tuned for finer details. The beast is awakening!

Orange Zone - 2-15cm

An area of snow will spread out of france into south eastern england sunday and join up with the fragmenting band from the north, what we will see is a large (expanding north) band of snow spreading to the areas stated. Some places will see a good 12-24 hours of continuous snowfall, mostly light to moderate with the odd heavier burst but accumulations should steadily build up. Into kent and coastal fringes the temperature may be a little marginal, which could negate settling snow totals. This is still very much open to question, further data needed to be sure. I would have places like inland parts of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire as current hotspots for highest totals. There may be an isolated 18-20cm here.

After this band clears away and fragments sunday into monday showers and streamers should follow. At the moment there is no definitive indication of where these will be and how potent so more updates needed. 

uk-physical-map-vector-graphics.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby
  • Location: Grimsby
7 minutes ago, Paul said:

Here you go:

1stdec2010.png

We literally had the best snowfall in 2010 on that date in grimsby, my little boy had tonsilitus, we couldn’t get the car out to take him to the drs and had to walk there, it was a right trek! Also I had a 7month old who I had to carry in a sling, he weighed a tonne , me and hubs couldn’t get the push chair out! I’m hoping for something similar again, all my kids are older now and would love it!

leanne.

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby
  • Location: Grimsby
4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

First predictions for this upcoming cold spell taken from my weather page.

 

Early weather watch 06/2/2021 21z - 10/2/2021.

*Whole eastern side of England

2 Areas of interest:

*Yellow Zone- Area of snow moving south saturday night being replaced by snow showers, more frequent monday onwards!

*Orange Zone- A spell of snow pushing into south eastern areas sunday will expand northwards throughout the day eventually affecting as far north as midlands/linconshire, parts of south yorkshire. After that possibility of snow showers/ troughs or disturbances but too early to pinpoint.

These warnings will be updated as events unfold and will most likely be upgraded to amber or even a red in the odd localised spot.

SNOW TOTALS:

Yellow area - widespread totals of 10-20cm. ~Must be noted though where streamers and convergence zones develop we may be measuring in inches and not cm, I would not be suprised with totals around 30cm in a few places and higher ground as much as 45cm, early indications would have North yorkshire moors and Tan hill as the epicentres. As ever showers can be hit and miss, some areas will do well, whilst 5 miles down the road there is considerably less snow. Although 10-20cm widespread a few unlucky or lucky (however you see it) locations may ony have 2-5 cm) I'm confident though everywhere should see a decent covering.

And an extra side note - Early indications and fax charts show a convergence zone setting up shop north yorkshire monday afternoon. This area of intense shower activity could be a little further north or south, stay tuned for finer details. The beast is awakening!

Orange Zone - 2-15cm

An area of snow will spread out of france into south eastern england sunday and join up with the fragmenting band from the north, what we will see is a large (expanding north) band of snow spreading to the areas stated. Some places will see a good 12-24 hours of continuous snowfall, mostly light to moderate with the odd heavier burst but accumulations should steadily build up. Into kent and coastal fringes the temperature may be a little marginal, which could negate settling snow totals. This is still very much open to question, further data needed to be sure. I would have places like inland parts of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire as current hotspots for highest totals. There may be an isolated 18-20cm here.

After this band clears away and fragments sunday into monday showers and streamers should follow. At the moment there is no definitive indication of where these will be and how potent so more updates needed. 

uk-physical-map-vector-graphics.jpg

I’m liking the sound of this! Thank you! 

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