Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Matt Jones]

I think a covering from the showery easterly is most likely, I imagine as always with showers there is going to be some largish variations on depth but don't expect too much on low lying areas.

It does look increasing like the SE, EA could be affected by that LP in the channel so that seems to be why the warnings of the possibility of heavier snow there. From my point of view I think falling snow and a light covering would be might expectations of my area.

[LeeSnowFan]

[Bradowl]

7 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

I think a covering from the showery easterly is most likely, I imagine as always with showers there is going to be some largish variations on depth but don't expect too much on low lying areas.

It does look increasing like the SE, EA could be affected by that LP in the channel so that seems to be why the warnings of the possibility of heavier snow there. From my point of view I think falling snow and a light covering would be might expectations of my area.

Even in an Easterly like this one it can get marginal right along coast at times, especially places like Immingham where there's little or no elevation but I should think you'll be fine this time, at least for a few days anyway. 

[Matt Jones]

Yeah as good as at sea level here, I always want to see -10 uppers for this location then I know it's going to be snow. Have to be patient and wait for proper cold in winter months here! 2010 was the memorable one other than that been mostly light coverings from cold spells.

[Stocksbridgesheff]

My 1st post, looking forward to this incoming cold and possibly snowy spell!!

Looking likely that the temp may not rise above 0c from sunday until fri/sat at least!!

Are we classing that as a cold snap or spell??

Edited February 4, 2021 by Stocksbridgesheff

[Bradowl]

4 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

Yeah as good as at sea level here, I always want to see -10 uppers for this location then I know it's going to be snow. Have to be patient and wait for proper cold in winter months here! 2010 was the memorable one other than that been mostly light coverings from cold spells.

One of my two daughters lives right on coast at Skegness and loads of times I've driven down there seeing loads of Snow on Lincs Wolds but when I've got to Skegness there's been nothing. 

Other daughter lives at Scarborough though a couple of miles inland and pretty high up so usually does well in a Easterly. 

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z a substantial upgrade on Monday-Tuesday.

Also drops to -7C on Wednesday so it will be colder in reality.

Edited February 4, 2021 by summer blizzard

[Mikey Skins]

This would be typical as I'm right in the no man's land......surely not.......

North Notts 

[Matt Jones]

 

1 minute ago, Bradowl said:

One of my two daughters lives right on coast at Skegness and loads of times I've driven down there seeing loads of Snow on Lincs Wolds but when I've got to Skegness there's been nothing. 

Other daughter lives at Scarborough though a couple of miles inland and pretty high up so usually does well in a Easterly. 

Yeah makes a big difference, the Lincolnshire coast is all flat, Caistor is only a 15 min drive from here but about 100m above sea level in marginal situations its snowy there and wet here. I like Scarborough, it gets hilly up that end of the east york/N york coast.

[Tim A]

7 minutes ago, Mikey Skins said:

This would be typical as I'm right in the no man's land......surely not.......

North Notts 

There might be an area with less convection initially as the front over the SE will kill shower development just to the North of it.  Still too early to know exactly where though and it will disappear as the front moves away 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Tim A

[Maltonman]

Wouldn't worry about these precipitation charts yet,from my experience little features pop up out of nowhere nearer the time, so will be plenty of surprises I'm sure. Can always remember one around 2009 or 10 where there was a small area of snow sitting off the coast circling on the rain today radar one Sunday afternoon, it then moved inland and give Stamford Bridge(where I was at the time) a right dumping for a couple of hours. Wasn't forecasted either! Good luck guys ???

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

3 hours ago, Just Before Dawn said:

Can't really fault the overnight output or ECM this morning - all staying pretty rock solid so far when it comes to the weekend and next week.

Particularly interested in Sunday evening - this has been consistent for three days worth of runs now. I've been in three meteorologically defined blizzards in my life - one walking up Glen Clova in 1991, one in South Dakota in 1998 and the third driving, then stopping the side of the road for four hours between Varangerbotn in Norway and Ivalo in Finland in 2017. Sunday night *could* be number 4. Further inland - S Yorks and bits of W Yorks, North Notts, who will already have had snow on the Saturday could see some pretty impressive drifting as those showers penetrate well inland. The 2010 event, great though it was, never had winds gusting to 40mph, at least not down here. 

 

 

1 hour ago, LeeSnowFan said:

from mad thread

The snow computer flags up the greatest risk of snowfall Sunday going into Monday being over Southern Northern England ( maybe from North Sea trough alignment focused in that location). Elsewhere snow convective cells widely north of The Wash and up to Scotland on the eastern side. Tuesday flags up some snow potential for Southern England on Tuesday but as yet does not provide a accuracy percentage rate. The team think the deepest cold air will arrive early on Tuesday.

Just flagging up these two posts as Sunday evening and overnight does look like it has the potential to give our region the first big "dump" of this spell.

Could really be some impressive snow totals by the end of next week to rival the 2010 spell?  ❄

[LeeSnowFan]

Just now, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

 

Just flagging up these two posts as Sunday evening and overnight does look like it has the potential to give our region the first big "dump" of this spell.

Could really be some impressive snow totals by the end of next week to rival the 2010 spell?  ❄

Yeh a few of said up to 10cm alone in the first fall sat night? then we have sunday monday tuesday we have done well in south yorks last few events recently, get nervous when you see words like going south, downgrade lol ...  

[cheese]

Starting to worry this will end up being one of those boring dry easterlies here. Shower activity during the Feb/March 2018 easterly was really frequent, occasionally merging into longer spells of snow - that’s what we really want to see.

On the other hand, GFS does seem keen on the idea of a streamer setting up over West/East/South Yorkshire (maybe north Midlands too) which would no doubt give a good dumping - perhaps a repeat of the December 2010 streamer event which famously buried Sheffield/Chesterfield/Scunthorpe/Worksop. Too early for specifics though.

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by cheese

[ianmm94]

20 minutes ago, Maltonman said:

Wouldn't worry about these precipitation charts yet,from my experience little features pop up out of nowhere nearer the time, so will be plenty of surprises I'm sure. Can always remember one around 2009 or 10 where there was a small area of snow sitting off the coast circling on the rain today radar one Sunday afternoon, it then moved inland and give Stamford Bridge(where I was at the time) a right dumping for a couple of hours. Wasn't forecasted either! Good luck guys ???

 

Same happened in York in 2010, I remember all the bus services were taken out of service because the snow was so bad

[Frostbite1980]

I have noticed the warnings from the Met are saying mainly light snow showers which surprises me some what.

[alibabba]

4 hours ago, Just Before Dawn said:

It's the right regional thread, this covers Yorkshire and Lincs.

Let's put it this way, I'll be doing my Boris-mandated exercise on Sunday afternoon at Saltfleetby, on the coast north of you. With my camera. From then until Thursday, it's snow showers all the way, with very little marginality.

brilliant! thank you  I will be on the beach too with the dog seeing the first snow this winter...at last!

[Cuban Zebra]

4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I have noticed the warnings from the Met are saying mainly light snow showers which surprises me some what.

I think it just demonstrates the current unpredictability, once things get going the warnings will soon appear!

[Winter Cold]

Welcome to the new members posting in our regional today

Should be a fun week on here, which is the best group of people around!

Enjoy!

[joggs]

1 hour ago, Tim A said:

There might be an area with less convection initially as the front over the SE will kill shower development just to the North of it.  Still too early to know exactly where though and it will disappear as the front moves away 

Yes we want the front further se to get us all in the decent convection zone. Parts of Lincolnshire and se south yorks could be limited at first with that front.

All toys are back in prams now in mad thread with our se contingent about to get plastered. 

Meto dont seem to be going big for our region tbh.

[Slysi100]

Really must stop watching the BBC forecasts, I'm always left feeling a bit deflated . Paul Hudson showed just cloud symbols for Sheffield for Monday and Tuesday. I know I shouldn't take it too literally but after seeing the potential for plenty of snow next week, it's frustrating. 

[TyphoonNow]

If London gets a few inches from this..

the headlines will be capital grinds to a halt! Boris chairs Cobra meeting, army deployed etc. 

[joggs]

2 minutes ago, Slysi100 said:

Really must stop watching the BBC forecasts, I'm always left feeling a bit deflated . Paul Hudson showed just cloud symbols for Sheffield for Monday and Tuesday. I know I shouldn't take it too literally but after seeing the potential for plenty of snow next week, it's frustrating. 

Years ago he loved a cold ramp. Not seen him for a while tbh. Must admit, I'm not expecting inches all over the region so hope to be surprised lol.

[cheese]

XC Weather shows 31cm here by Thursday next week. 

The idea of an M62 streamer seems to be a recurring theme now according to some models. Whether the Met Office pick up on this is another matter - maybe closer to the time when certainly is higher.

Edited February 4, 2021 by cheese

[Danns]

3 hours ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Yeh a few of said up to 10cm alone in the first fall sat night? then we have sunday monday tuesday we have done well in south yorks last few events recently, get nervous when you see words like going south, downgrade lol ...  

Got to agree with the second part about getting nervous/downgrade. Looking in the mod thread many charts posted start on Sunday evening, which is frustrating because it totally discounts Saturday night I feel lots of IMBY posting can create a sense of peril especially for me who is relative newbie. The positive thing about Saturdays snow chances is it’s been brought forward, this time yesterday looked like starting 11pm now much earlier at 6pm which can only be a good signal. Another positive IMO is that the light snow symbols being shown on various apps is more of a way of saying “it’s going to snow but we’re not sure how much”.

My tip is to stick in the Yorkshire thread if you want the low down on our weather and listen to people  who are more knowledgeable and honest about weather prospects which are mostly always backed up with either science or vast amounts of experience. Sure helps me so thank you guys!!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Danns