Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Kasim Awan]

Growing potential for significant back edge snow on Saturday before a potential pummelling from showers later on. The ENE wind direction means a Wash, and Humber / Lincs streamer are likely, this favouring Sheffield, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, but also alignments on the Yorkshire coast topography so potentially North York Moors streamer - in these areas I would be considering 20cm+ possible locally given the duration of the convective feed currently modeled (this could change of course), with 3-15cm quite widely elsewhere inland.

The frontal feature on Saturday is also looking promising, ICON may be overdoing it. A midway between a very optimal timing & poor timing = 2-8cm widely possible. Of course this too could change.

[LeeSnowFan]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Growing potential for significant back edge snow on Saturday before a potential pummelling from showers later on. The ENE wind direction means a Wash, and Humber / Lincs streamer are likely, this favouring Sheffield, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, but also alignments on the Yorkshire coast topography so potentially North York Moors streamer - in these areas I would be considering 20cm+ possible locally given the duration of the convective feed currently modeled (this could change of course), with 3-15cm quite widely elsewhere inland.

The frontal feature on Saturday is also looking promising, ICON may be overdoing it. A midway between a very optimal timing & poor timing = 2-8cm widely possible. Of course this too could change.

WElcome back

 

I am 10-15 mins from sheffield 125asl thoughts on barnsley? we have done well last events over 8+cm each time .

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

WElcome back

 

I am 10-15 mins from sheffield 125asl thoughts on barnsley? we have done well last events over 8+cm each time .

Sheffield/Chesterfield favoured slightly more atm for the 20cm+ totals, remember there's a slight chance some of the shower based convection could be downgraded in the output.

[winterof79]

Saturdays snow highlighted. 

[winterof79]

23 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Growing potential for significant back edge snow on Saturday before a potential pummelling from showers later on. The ENE wind direction means a Wash, and Humber / Lincs streamer are likely, this favouring Sheffield, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, but also alignments on the Yorkshire coast topography so potentially North York Moors streamer - in these areas I would be considering 20cm+ possible locally given the duration of the convective feed currently modeled (this could change of course), with 3-15cm quite widely elsewhere inland.

The frontal feature on Saturday is also looking promising, ICON may be overdoing it. A midway between a very optimal timing & poor timing = 2-8cm widely possible. Of course this too could change.

Hi Kasim, 

You thinking the wind will stay north of east or veer easterly by Monday

Edited February 3, 2021 by winterof79

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Saturdays snow highlighted. 

oh arriving earlier and then snow showers through much of sunday

[MarkM]

Looks like I might get some nice snow pics of my cricket ground at Normanby Park ( just north of Scunthorpe )

[Lincstim]

7 minutes ago, MarkM said:

Looks like I might get some nice snow pics of my cricket ground at Normanby Park ( just north of Scunthorpe )

Played there many times in the old weekly league... 

 

[Tink 2010]

29 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Growing potential for significant back edge snow on Saturday before a potential pummelling from showers later on. The ENE wind direction means a Wash, and Humber / Lincs streamer are likely, this favouring Sheffield, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, but also alignments on the Yorkshire coast topography so potentially North York Moors streamer - in these areas I would be considering 20cm+ possible locally given the duration of the convective feed currently modeled (this could change of course), with 3-15cm quite widely elsewhere inland.

The frontal feature on Saturday is also looking promising, ICON may be overdoing it. A midway between a very optimal timing & poor timing = 2-8cm widely possible. Of course this too could change.

Welcome back Kasim I hope you are keeping well. As many have said....we appreciate your posts

[MarkM]

7 minutes ago, Lincstim said:

Played there many times in the old weekly league... 

 

It's had a lot of improvements over the last few years , looks a treat now

 

[Barking_Mad]

Given up reading the South East Model Thread 

There doesn't look to be an awful lot of snow about at the moment for Sunday/Monday, but still a long way out. I remember a few years ago the forecast said 'NO SNOW' but there was an snow machine somewhere and it just kept coming down. 

Hope for more of the same here in NW Leeds. 

 

 

[Scott Ingham]

We will almost certainly see disturbances in this type of flow by friday 0z.

With saturday nights diving low pressure and 3 days of an ene flow in these heights ill be amazed if we dont see widespread 30cm+ reports by wednesday morning.

South Yorkshire  Lincolnshire  Nottinghamshire favoured with the North and West of the region widely above 15-20cms

[Snowing offshore]

13 minutes ago, MarkM said:

Looks like I might get some nice snow pics of my cricket ground at Normanby Park ( just north of Scunthorpe )

Nice ground but didn't ever play there.  Many games at some other not so pretty grounds in Scunny, used to play for Louth. Went for a ranger Job at Normanby Park years ago but didn't get it. Came with a house but I'm not bitter. Most memorable cricket moment in Scunny was when they had a quick who had played a few games for India. Hit one of our guys in the box. Was treated by his father who poored a bottle of water down his jock strap. Poor lad couldn't walk. How funny it is when it is not you.

To make weather related, would look lovely with snow.

[MarkM]

1 minute ago, Snowing offshore said:

Nice ground but didn't ever play there.  Many games at some other not so pretty grounds in Scunny, used to play for Louth. Went for a ranger Job at Normanby Park years ago but didn't get it. Came with a house but I'm not bitter. Most memorable cricket moment in Scunny was when they had a quick who had played a few games for India. Hit one of our guys in the box. Was treated by his father who poored a bottle of water down his jock strap. Poor lad couldn't walk. How funny it is when it is not you.

To make weather related, would look lovely with snow.

That's be App Frod and Scunny Town I guess. If this snow hits as forecast I can see me not getting any work done on the ground for a week or so , would love a decent snow event,not had one for years. 

[BA Baracus]

The wiggle in the isobar shows there could be disturbances in the easterly flow = chance of more significant snow.

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

We will almost certainly see disturbances in this type of flow by friday 0z.

With saturday nights diving low pressure and 3 days of an ene flow in these heights ill be amazed if we dont see widespread 30cm+ reports by wednesday morning.

South Yorkshire  Lincolnshire  Nottinghamshire favoured with the North and West of the region widely above 15-20cms

Looks like ECM lost the plot with regards height rises to our north

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looks like ECM lost the plot with regards height rises to our north

Yes mate. Not overly worried. It may well be right. Some ensembles would suggest a breakdown thursday onwards but i think heights to the north and dense cold air is being underestimated. It almost always is

[Wilkybarkid]

Can't find the model thread tonight, seems to have been replaced by a south east thread??

So popped in the regional and what marvelous posts, informative and entertaining.

Hoping everone gets something over the weekend and beyond - certainly looking like it!

 

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes mate. Not overly worried. It may well be right. Some ensembles would suggest a breakdown thursday onwards but i think heights to the north and dense cold air is being underestimated. It almost always is

Hope things are OK with you pal. 

By Thursday I think we'll be exhausted by the potential /reality shown. 

[Craigers]

21 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

We will almost certainly see disturbances in this type of flow by friday 0z.

With saturday nights diving low pressure and 3 days of an ene flow in these heights ill be amazed if we dont see widespread 30cm+ reports by wednesday morning.

South Yorkshire  Lincolnshire  Nottinghamshire favoured with the North and West of the region widely above 15-20cms

I think this could be better 2010 snow wise on wider scale for Yorkshire 

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Craigers said:

I think this could be better 2010 snow wise on wider scale for Yorkshire 

Doubt it. I was in BD11 then with 23cm.

Targets are 12cm in 2018 and 16cm in 2013 (though that excludes the final snowfall as I could not measure for 48 hours).

Edited February 3, 2021 by summer blizzard

[SouthYorks]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Growing potential for significant back edge snow on Saturday before a potential pummelling from showers later on. The ENE wind direction means a Wash, and Humber / Lincs streamer are likely, this favouring Sheffield, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, but also alignments on the Yorkshire coast topography so potentially North York Moors streamer - in these areas I would be considering 20cm+ possible locally given the duration of the convective feed currently modeled (this could change of course), with 3-15cm quite widely elsewhere inland.

The frontal feature on Saturday is also looking promising, ICON may be overdoing it. A midway between a very optimal timing & poor timing = 2-8cm widely possible. Of course this too could change.

Great to see you back Kasim
 

ICON really going for the band of snow Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Edited February 3, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Schnee]

I'd love 50CM AKA 1991 but realistically i'm expecting around 2-5cm from every shower that passes through.

[Harsh Climate]

This is my early take on snow totals. Clearly a lot of water to go under the bridge before we can be more certain but I gone big

 

CURRENT WARNING 5th/februrary 12z - 10th/februrary 12z.

Warning structured into 3 tiers. Yellow/Amber/Red

 

Red area: 10-30cm low ground, 30-40cm 200m+, 300m+ 40-70cm

 

Orange area: 10-30cm all levels, perhaps more at highest elevation.

 

Yellow area: 2-10cm all levels.

 

SYNOPSIS:

 

Areas of rain/sleet/snow over central/southern/eastern scotland and cumbria should turn readily to snow at all levels as friday progresses, giving significant to large accumulations in places. This area of snow should extend southwards later saturday to northern england then the rest of eastern uk later sunday, giving significant accumulations in places especially the further north and east. It will most probably be lighter and more patchy the further south east. After that a cold showery polar airstream from the east establishes itself over most of the uk (sunday-wednesday) delivering frequent snow showers and streamers to many eastern areas, at this moment in time the further north east the more likely for higher accumulations. The far south east should have more organised bands of sleet/snow circulating around the centre of low pressure towards france, crossing the channel time to time. There maybe the opportunity for a large snow event from this but too early to say, but on the flip side for avid snow fans being close to this low pressure centre you are less likely to have the frequent snow showers, a possible DRY ZONE between the two airmasses.

[Snowing offshore]

18 minutes ago, MarkM said:

That's be App Frod and Scunny Town I guess. If this snow hits as forecast I can see me not getting any work done on the ground for a week or so , would love a decent snow event,not had one for years. 

Yes thats them. Was Scunny Town I think the bowler was Dodda Ganesh. I was a no11 and did not survive long enough to get hit. We didn't win.

Reasons to be cheerful though a likely snowy lincs and an India England test match on free to air telly. There will have been worse weeks during the last year. The wicket can wait a while.

I really hope LincsTim's daughter gets her first real snow experience and it as magical as I remember from my childhood and with my own kids.