Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12 z OP at 240 hours

Yorkshire would be bloody cold on 5th Feb if GFS 12 z Op is correct  !

[Bradowl]

22 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Everyone in the model forum bar the usual people were wanting to write off winter this morning

Someone on one of Facebook weather groups was telling everyone that Winter is over now because Atlantic is taking over.  

It's only 26th January.  

[The PIT]

A spell of moderate sleet around four but no snow today. Thursday looks far to mild for any Snow now for Sunny Sheffield. Further North and East the intensity of the rain could well do the trick for those lower down can see the hills doing okay. Of course if the mild air fails to make it's push we are in business.

Sunday evening looks to be off interest as well especially if the front actual stalls over us.

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Someone on one of Facebook weather groups was telling everyone that Winter is over now because Atlantic is taking over.  

It's only 26th January.  

Give it for weeks and they would be right

[Empire Of Snow]

Snow stopped, sleety drizzle now. Thursday is a tricky one. We might have 10-15cm or just heavy rain. 

[The PIT]

Well if the GFS comes off they won't need to be worrying about vaccine supplies as many more elderly people won't be able to get. -12 uppers yummy

[Bradowl]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Give it for weeks and they would be right

If today was April 26th I might have agreed, even then I've seen heavy snow falling in May. 

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, Bradowl said:

If today was April 26th I might have agreed, even then I've seen heavy snow falling in May. 

Yeh but that's in Spring.  I think Harrogate will be okay Thursday. Winds fairly light so I would expect Evaporitive cooling if it was needed would do the trick anyway.

[Bradowl]

Just now, The PIT said:

Yeh but that's in Spring.  I think Harrogate will be okay Thursday. Winds fairly light so I would expect Evaporitive cooling if it was needed would do the trick anyway.

We'll probably get cold rain here in Rotherham whilst 5 miles away on hills around Sheffield they'll have several inches. 

This happens frequently. 

[Harsh Climate]

11 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

We'll probably get cold rain here in Rotherham whilst 5 miles away on hills around Sheffield they'll have several inches. 

This happens frequently. 

I feel your pain, can have heavy wet snow here (103m) with small deposit of slush, yet few miles away about (200m) where Cheese Rice lives, 6" of snow! 

Better had not happen again this thursday!         

Edited January 26, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 12 z OP at 240 hours

Yorkshire would be bloody cold on 5th Feb if GFS 12 z Op is correct  !

Blimey even Hull, the most snowless place in Yorkshire could see some sleet from that!

Covering of snow above 250m at work on the North York Moors this afternoon and it looks like the hills of Yorkshire will see some more snow later this week.

The painful wait for snow in low lying areas in the east of the region continues so lets hope the 12z GFS has it nailed!

[Craigers]

ECM 12z now playing catch up with the wedges and sliders coming into reliable time frame! Watch this space folks.

[Tim A]

That ECM chart is lovely but so far away, I worry that the slider will get nowhere near us in the end if this trend continues. Still at least we would be left in cold air until the next battle begins.

[Sunny_AS]

1 hour ago, Craigers said:

ECM 12z now playing catch up with the wedges and sliders coming into reliable time frame! Watch this space folks.

I'm hoping Thursday's is showing something similar....

[SouthYorks]

Interesting GFS Ensembles going into February, but both the Op and Control currently clear outliers.  New Tend or will they fall back into line on the 18z?

[Harsh Climate]

5 minutes ago, Sunny_AS said:

I'm hoping Thursday's is showing something similar....

I think at the moment above 200m for a big dumping. 100-199m more marginal, could be the case of 25m making all the difference.

Further updates needed. Depends on 3 factors:

*How heavy the precipitation is (Aids evaporative cooling.)

*How slow moving/persistant the band is

*How much wind there is. (Too much wind can negate the effects of evaporative cooling, which should come into play thursday.)

All three of these factors come in our favour and that snow line I mentioned could be a good 150m lower with all of us in the game! 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[winterof79]

Most hi Res show no snow other than North Yorks

[Yorkshirepudding]

1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think at the moment above 200m for a big dumping. 100-199m more marginal, could be the case of 25m making all the difference.

Further updates needed. Depends on 3 factors:

*How heavy the precipitation is (Aids evaporative cooling.)

*How slow moving/persistant the band is

*How much wind there is. (Too much wind can negate the effects of evaporative cooling, which should come into play thursday.)

All three of these factors come in our favour and that snow line I mentioned could be a good 150m lower with all of us in the game! 

Seems like things have been flip flopping around with the snow line all day, it was indicating for my location heavy snow for a good few hours this morning, then it went to sleet, then to rain, then back to sleet this evening. Things could be a totally different story in the morning and we could all end up getting a pasting lol.  It’s so marginal and needing so many different factors it will be another on the day look out of your window scenario.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Yorkshirepudding
Typo

[winterof79]

10 hours ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Seems like things have been flip flopping around with the snow line all day, it was indicating for my location heavy snow for a good few hours this morning, then it went to sleet, then to rain, then back to sleet this evening. Things could be a totally different story in the morning and we could all end up getting a pasting lol.  It’s so marginal and needing so many different factors it will be another on the day look out of your window scenario.

Looks like a major bust to me unless your up a mountain both Thursday and Sunday. Clocks ticking. 

[joggs]

Yes. Nothing worthwhile unless you're really high up or very north of the region. As suspected. Next period of interest around 5th Feb.

[Empire Of Snow]

Good morning all. Spent some time last night checking almost everything, latest runs, charts etc. It's really a nightmare forecasting tomorrow. As it stands all areas will start with rain. North Yorkshire (Leeds and places North of Leeds) roughly above 150-160asl should see rain turning to snow around 7am/8am and possibly the snow line will gradually go down to 100asl. System will move on a turtle pace so areas with snowfall will possibly see significant accumulations especially over 250asl.

If we don't have any downgrades today with milder air pushing in with the front I would expect an amber warning issued by METO this afternoon. 

[winterof79]

40 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Good morning all. Spent some time last night checking almost everything, latest runs, charts etc. It's really a nightmare forecasting tomorrow. As it stands all areas will start with rain. North Yorkshire (Leeds and places North of Leeds) roughly above 150-160asl should see rain turning to snow around 7am/8am and possibly the snow line will gradually go down to 100asl. System will move on a turtle pace so areas with snowfall will possibly see significant accumulations especially over 250asl.

If we don't have any downgrades today with milder air pushing in with the front I would expect an amber warning issued by METO this afternoon. 

Amber for where exactly above 250mts?

Edited January 27, 2021 by winterof79

[Empire Of Snow]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Amber for where exactly above 250mts?

I wouldn't rely so much on GFS ppn charts. Amber for both rain and snow I meant. Sorry I wasn't clear enough. They issued an amber warning for 5cm last time..

[Empire Of Snow]

Hmm OK. There are already downgrades today for both Thursday and Sunday. 

[Yorkshirepudding]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Looks like a major bust to me unless your up a mountain both Thursday and Sunday. Clocks ticking. 

Yeah already it looks that way on the models this morning buddy. Let’s wait and see