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Posted
  • Location: Normanton West Yorks 100ft asl
  • Location: Normanton West Yorks 100ft asl

BBC graphics look better on Thursday than Tuesday well they do on the news more chance of snow, that is for our area!!

Edited by fazzafarrand
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Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m

Looks like it could get interesting again this week towards the end as we are seeing a few upgrades in the models this evening. 

some of us get a real pasting if this was to materialise..

 

4C89C6BA-B37E-4C4D-9836-4C9C1D582F11.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
12 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Looks like it could get interesting again this week towards the end as we are seeing a few upgrades in the models this evening. 

some of us get a real pasting if this was to materialise..

 

4C89C6BA-B37E-4C4D-9836-4C9C1D582F11.jpeg

Id expect the upgrades to continue and the cold boundary trending south all week!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS looks crappo to me ECM better but both lead to mediocre outlooks. Worst thing though is the rain with more flooding on the cards

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The latest UKMO fax charts stall the fronts further SW,...☺️

fax48s.thumb.gif.ef4a32b80d5f6e35cab3f92c997de1bd.giffax60s.thumb.gif.2999bebb9b29a11e790b53b4af2498c2.giffax72s.thumb.gif.6a71125e381215b82dbebb4beaac2532.gif

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The latest UKMO fax charts stall the fronts further SW,...☺️

fax48s.thumb.gif.ef4a32b80d5f6e35cab3f92c997de1bd.giffax60s.thumb.gif.2999bebb9b29a11e790b53b4af2498c2.giffax72s.thumb.gif.6a71125e381215b82dbebb4beaac2532.gif

Exactly mate and ARPEGE was the trend setter?

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The latest UKMO fax charts stall the fronts further SW,...☺️

fax48s.thumb.gif.ef4a32b80d5f6e35cab3f92c997de1bd.giffax60s.thumb.gif.2999bebb9b29a11e790b53b4af2498c2.giffax72s.thumb.gif.6a71125e381215b82dbebb4beaac2532.gif

ECM and Arpege agree!

D98CCB4C-05B0-407E-87F8-4E9DB0623944.png

A25A96FF-E87E-4E84-9A0C-9BFBFAB82D49.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
4 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

ECM and Arpege agree!

D98CCB4C-05B0-407E-87F8-4E9DB0623944.png

A25A96FF-E87E-4E84-9A0C-9BFBFAB82D49.png

Arpege is further south! This was the first model to show this trend ?

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
1 hour ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Looks like it could get interesting again this week towards the end as we are seeing a few upgrades in the models this evening. 

some of us get a real pasting if this was to materialise..

 

4C89C6BA-B37E-4C4D-9836-4C9C1D582F11.jpeg

The ECM tonight is an absolute dream, but usually this far out any sweet spot if there is to be snow usually ends up at least 100/200 miles north or south of where initially predicted.

Can't be disregarded, certainly on the table but I'd give probability at this stage of around 5% that chart verifies. Some snow to lowish levels about 20%..

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

The ECM tonight is an absolute dream, but usually this far out any sweet spot if there is to be snow usually ends up at least 100/200 miles north or south of where initially predicted.

Can't be disregarded, certainly on the table but I'd give probability at this stage of around 5% that chart verifies. Some snow to lowish levels about 20%..

Totally agree buddy, it’s just nice to have the potential showing up on the models tonight rather than what was showing the last few days. Obviously all subject to change for the better or the worse but for now I can only hope that comes off as it would put me in the sweet spot lol

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
36 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Totally agree buddy, it’s just nice to have the potential showing up on the models tonight rather than what was showing the last few days. Obviously all subject to change for the better or the worse but for now I can only hope that comes off as it would put me in the sweet spot lol

Yeah hopefully ecm is onto something, could be some interesting overnight runs.

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
24 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah hopefully ecm is onto something, could be some interesting overnight runs.

Arpege has been showing a similar outcome with the front, with snow, over Yorkshire for 4 or 5 runs in a row now.  Good to see ECM coming onboard, as none of the other models have been interested.  Time will tell and we can but hope! 

Edited by SouthYorks
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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
36 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

Arpege has been showing a similar outcome with the front, with snow, over Yorkshire for 4 or 5 runs in a row now.  Good to see ECM coming onboard, as none of the other models have been interested.  Time will tell and we can but hope! 

Yeah arpege showed most of England getting a pasting Thursday, just other day. 

Funny though most people wrote that model off a couple weeks ago, but it nailed quite early that massive snow event not long ago across parts of Yorkshire!

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
34 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah arpege showed most of England getting a pasting Thursday, just other day. 

Funny though most people wrote that model off a couple weeks ago, but it nailed quite early that massive snow event not long ago across parts of Yorkshire!

The model has certainly taken me by surprise this winter! Usually over does snow fall potential but this winter has been spot on!

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

Arpege continuing to run with the snowy theme for us on Thursday

087B4B10-5FF3-45E2-BF6B-CBAEC6496E10.png

Edited by SouthYorks
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

Looking at today's model runs I think there is the potential for a large snow event somewhere within our region come Thursday into Friday.

A stalling front which now looks to fail to bring the mild air through with winds backing Easterly before diving SE.

My local forecast is 4c and sleet on Thursday and Friday now.  Yesterday it was showing as 10c!

Some places particularly on higher ground could get buried from this.  Could be North of us it could be South even but the potential is there in my opinion....❄

Edited by Kentish Snowman in Yorks
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
24 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

still looks interesting for thursday morning

overview_20210125_12_066.jpg

That was last nights tho 

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

Arpege sticking to it’s guns, but ECM is not so good this morning with snow reserved for higher ground North of Leeds only.  All other models are poor for snow on Thursday, so either it’s going to be big win for the Arpege or it’s going to drop the snow signal soon!

B5927015-72A2-4937-8952-0B6DA088C047.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
1 hour ago, SouthYorks said:

Arpege sticking to it’s guns, but ECM is not so good this morning with snow reserved for higher ground North of Leeds only.  All other models are poor for snow on Thursday, so either it’s going to be big win for the Arpege or it’s going to drop the snow signal soon!

B5927015-72A2-4937-8952-0B6DA088C047.png

From looking at this mornings output I think we are just sitting on wrong side of marginal. Snow reserved to hills of north/west yorkshire perhaps penetrating to lower levels at times but struggling to settle. That is my current view on thursday.

But like that snow event a couple fridays' ago, things can quickly change and it's still a possibility for appreciable lowland snow thursday.. Albeit a small chance at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
29 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Looking at today we might see a little sleet/ wet snow as this band from the west pushes in. 

Yep, and it will be interesting to see what progress the ppn makes across the country.  Slower, or it doesn’t push the whole way through, could be an early indicator that the cold air is holding on stronger which would be a positive indicator for Thursday.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
1 hour ago, SouthYorks said:

Yep, and it will be interesting to see what progress the ppn makes across the country.  Slower, or it doesn’t push the whole way through, could be an early indicator that the cold air is holding on stronger which would be a positive indicator for Thursday.

Great point that, any factors falling in our favour this early, no matter how small could have huge impacts later down the line 

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Posted
  • Location: Dronfield (South Sheffield)
  • Location: Dronfield (South Sheffield)

The models have been showing small tweaks in favour of extending cold for our region. Thursday looks right on the edge of marginality but could deliver with some elevation?

Moving forward, I think things are still quite promising for us. Cold air is never that far away over the next week and small movements in the right direction could put is in the mix for more snow events as these fronts pass over the country.

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