Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

Mate with all due respect i hope your well etc. But i told my wife to be about you catching it twice etc. Are you actually going out there and being careful n wearing a mask.... cos she asked the questions....

Ive been nowehere mate and been very careful. The only time i could catch it the second time was a few days prior to christmas day and symptoms started from then on the 30th.

Its rare to catch it a second time but we are into the thousands now for reinfection according to my doctor.

Makes you wonder what we do actually know about it and if were jumping too quick thinking vaccinations will be as affective as they think

[Just Before Dawn]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Sorry guys i had covid 2 weeks ago and ive felt shattered all day!

Looking at the 12z i see this as a higher ground event above 250 metres. Surface cold will definitely help lower levels for the first half hour to an hour of precipitation until mixing of the air increasingly turns snow to sleet and then rain in our location.

Areas in North Yorkshire may see a small covering above 150m until this turns to rain.

This is an event for the south east as mixing will happen much slower along with slacker air helping with evaporative cooling to allow a substantial fall with these areas warming slightly after the precipitation has left us.

The medium term is what takes my eye later next week onwards as mild sectors look south of us along with supportive conditions i.e wet bulb and dps coupling with moisture from the west to create a potentially very snowy period to come the following week. So a temprorary rest bite until our best period of wintry weather looking more and more likely

Depends what you mean by 'our location' - mixing out of the cold air takes progressively longer the further east you go - then it becomes a matter of how quickly the front moves. For the Lincolnshire Fens (still covered by this region, apparently) I don't think this will be an above 250m event (good job really!). West Yorkshire? Probably. We're a big region.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Just Before Dawn

[The PIT]

Pretty much agree with Scott. Worryingly the temps are already on the rise here up 0.5C in the last half hour. Hopefully that's just wind stirring things up. ot expecting to the dig the car out tomorrow morning although if the rain is freezing staying in until it's gone. Should have by six as the temps are 3C according to the GFS.

[Scott Ingham]

22 minutes ago, Just Before Dawn said:

Depends what you mean by 'our location' - mixing out of the cold air takes progressively longer the further east you go - then it becomes a matter of how quickly the front moves. For the Lincolnshire Fens (still covered by this region, apparently) I don't think this will be an above 250m event (good job really!). West Yorkshire? Probably. We're a big region.

It will help the further east you are for sure meaning less altitude needed but even lincolnshire will receive snow turning to rain later in the morning. Only the south east look likely to be hit by snow that doesnt melt in my opinion. I wouldnt be getting overly excited. 

Dont forget btw im a snow lover but im not a fantasist when i call it i call it even against the majority which happened wednesday/thursday but equally if i feel somethings a bust ill say that.

I hope you get battered but i feel youll receive 1-3cm for it to be washed away straight after 

[winterof79]

Never say never

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Never say never

I hope conditions are underestimated mate and short term forecasting isnt really my area but my own personal opinion is we need a big slow down of this front to come into play @Kasim Awan is really your man on this. 

[boyzie]

Don't see these guys everyday. Someone hurt themselves near me on the ice.

[Guest]

My thoughts, written and published earlier for my forecasting page, for what it's worth. Not at all technical, as it's not that kind of page...

"SATURDAY'S SNOW CHANCES - mainly high ground...

Evening folks! As promised here is a quick (lol, it's never a quick write-up) post on how Saturday is likely to unfold

Detail - We have cold air already in place and later on tonight into the early hours of Saturday we have precipitation hitting that cold air and turning to snow for a short time A potential risk of freezing rain during the transition as well, so take note of potential ice hazards. The heavier precipitation will be around dawn into mid-morning, accompanied by gusty southerly winds, before the weather front responsible clears swiftly eastwards, leaving us drier and brighter for the afternoon.

Snow looks mainly reserved for high ground as our cold air quickly gets mixed out by milder air from the west Above 200-250m there is the potential for a reasonable early covering before it turns back to rain Lower ground *may* see some early sleet and snow but it'll likely be too wet and brief to add more than a slushy coating before the rain arrives to provide a swift and wet thaw to what we've already had this week.

The two WRF-NMM hi-res charts show the 'high ground only' theme to this event. It is on the conservative side with some other models going for more snow coverage, but even so this is far removed from Thursday's stalling snow event.

Be prepared for a wet and potentially wintry morning then on Saturday, and don't bother driving across Snake Pass at 5am, in case you were thinking of doing such a thing. Maniacs.

There's a Met Office weather warning for the snow and ice risk, which you can read here."

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Steel City Skies

[Just Before Dawn]

16 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It will help the further east you are for sure meaning less altitude needed but even lincolnshire will receive snow turning to rain later in the morning. Only the south east look likely to be hit by snow that doesnt melt in my opinion. I wouldnt be getting overly excited. 

Dont forget btw im a snow lover but im not a fantasist when i call it i call it even against the majority which happened wednesday/thursday but equally if i feel somethings a bust ill say that.

I hope you get battered but i feel youll receive 1-3cm for it to be washed away straight after 

Oh, It's not going to lie for days, I don't think anything has suggested it won't be gone by tomorrow afternoon, but this part of the world hasn't had lying snow since 2017 and nothing like parts of West, North and South Yorkshire has had this week for close to a decade, so we all have differing excitement thresholds!  Like I said, this is a big region and for us in the SE of it, to put it 'mildly', this winter has been garbage so far, so I'll take my victories small.  I will admit that from a climate perspective, we've probably far more in common with East Anglia than we have with Yorkshire.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Just Before Dawn

[Cheese Rice]

Nothing to get excited about tonight unfortunately, snow to all levels briefly before retreating to 400-600m. Favoured location North York Moors which could hold on to snow throughout. 

[winterof79]

Euro4 latest i would take that so it doesn't destroy my snow too quick. There are some heavier bursts within

[Muffelchen]

31 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Pretty much agree with Scott. Worryingly the temps are already on the rise here up 0.5C in the last half hour. Hopefully that's just wind stirring things up. ot expecting to the dig the car out tomorrow morning although if the rain is freezing staying in until it's gone. Should have by six as the temps are 3C according to the GFS.

Yep, the temp had been steadily dropping here but the fog has now descended and the temp is up by 0.3°C in the last half hour or so, so looks like some mixing taking place already and working its way down. Not a great sign but not expecting much (if anything). Maybe next week winter will really, finally hit. This winter always seems to be jam tomorrow - just out of reach but always showing promise.....

[Sunny_AS]

I tell you what though, looking at the precipitation on the radar, there are some really bright colours over Ireland atm...

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Muffelchen said:

Yep, the temp had been steadily dropping here but the fog has now descended and the temp is up by 0.3°C in the last half hour or so, so looks like some mixing taking place already and working its way down. Not a great sign but not expecting much (if anything). Maybe next week winter will really, finally hit. This winter always seems to be jam tomorrow - just out of reach but always showing promise.....

 

Some on here would say winter has been here for 2 weeks already.

Location Location....etc , twas the same in 47 and 63 and 79. Just there was no media to spread the news. The Pennine regions and hillier areas will always fair better wether it be an easterly or approaching frontal snow into emedded cold. Nothing can change that but there will always be specific events that buck the trend.

 

 

 

[The PIT]

For the older members here do you prefer days when there was no radar and you often had a pleasant surprise. One I remember I think was boxing day 76 or 77 on Christmas day and the Beeb forecast was mild and wet and My father came in after doing the evening measurements they saying it's mild but it isn't. Next morning it was sleeting this soon turned to snow and dumped about half a foot of snow perhaps more.

[Harsh Climate]

31 minutes ago, Sunny_AS said:

I tell you what though, looking at the precipitation on the radar, there are some really bright colours over Ireland atm...

Seems to be steamrolling in lol, would love something to develop ahead of the main band.

[Cheese Rice]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

For the older members here do you prefer days when there was no radar and you often had a pleasant surprise. One I remember I think was boxing day 76 or 77 on Christmas day and the Beeb forecast was mild and wet and My father came in after doing the evening measurements they saying it's mild but it isn't. Next morning it was sleeting this soon turned to snow and dumped about half a foot of snow perhaps more.

Although this doesn't apply to me I do remember the old met office rainfall radar that updated every 30 minutes. 

I actually preffered it when we had a lower Res radar, you couldn't tell if you missed a heavier echo. Back then it felt like everywhere was in on the fun. 

 

 

 

[Scott Ingham]

Look North saying accumalations to lower levels...... eh?!

[NorthYorksWeather]

This morning was the 3rd time this winter parts of North Yorkshire have fallen into minus double digits. Coldest temps below:

Many places then experienced an ice day with Litton not getting above -3c all day. Coldest maximum temps below.

Meanwhile I was working on the North York Moors today which was truly stunning, deep snow, blue skies and sub zero temperatures. With more snow forecast in that area tomorrow this is no doubt the snowiest winter across upland North Yorkshire for many years.

[SouthYorks]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Never say never

That is 3 runs in a row that the Arpege has shown snow to this extent.  I commented this morning that it was fairly accurate with Thursdays event, and could be one to watch even though it out on its own against most other models.  I guess we’ll see in the morning!

[SouthYorks]

4 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

This morning was the 3rd time this winter parts of North Yorkshire have fallen into minus double digits. Coldest temps below:

Many places then experienced an ice day with Litton not getting above -3c all day. Coldest maximum temps below.

Meanwhile I was working on the North York Moors today which was truly stunning, deep snow, blue skies and sub zero temperatures. With more snow forecast in that area tomorrow this is no doubt the snowiest winter across upland North Yorkshire for many years.

Not surprised by Ravenseat topping the cold chart!  It’s where the Yorkshire Shepherdess farms and lives with her family.  I follow her on Instagram, and they’ve had some really challenging weather over the last few weeks, with deep snow, drifts and bitter temps.

Great photos by the way!

[Winter Cold]

20 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Look North saying accumalations to lower levels...... eh?!

Abbie was very bullish wasn't she! Hhmmm, I'm not sure tonight will give much.

Right now, conditions are good, sub zero temps and dews, but I guess it may come down to how much mixing we see early on

[Bradowl]

45 minutes ago, The PIT said:

For the older members here do you prefer days when there was no radar and you often had a pleasant surprise. One I remember I think was boxing day 76 or 77 on Christmas day and the Beeb forecast was mild and wet and My father came in after doing the evening measurements they saying it's mild but it isn't. Next morning it was sleeting this soon turned to snow and dumped about half a foot of snow perhaps more.

Might not be one I'm thinking of but around that time, I know it was a Saturday because of no school, forecast was for rain all day, no mention of snow not even on hills with temps of 7'C, with colder weather following once rain cleared overnight. 

It was raining when I got up but I soon noticed rain was turning sleety and within half an hour it had turned to heavy snow which continued all day leaving several inches. 

Even in them days forecasters received some stick if they got it wrong and they had some explaining to do on the Monday on Calendar and Look North.

Explanation was that cold air had dug into back of cold front pushing down from North. 

[sorepaw1]

Looking forward to next Friday onwards certainly lots to look forward to in Yorkshire especially North and East Yorkshire. 

Currently-3.oC here freezing fog 

And 4" of lying snow.

Picture taken from end of my driveway .

Chart above shows a decent northerly. 

Everything is just getting going now in regards cold and snow 

Sit back relax and listen to sorepaw 

I've studied charts for over 30 years enjoy...

Below is my Volvo V40 Cross Country All wheel drive with winter tyres on. 

A must up here in winter.

[swfc]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

For the older members here do you prefer days when there was no radar and you often had a pleasant surprise. One I remember I think was boxing day 76 or 77 on Christmas day and the Beeb forecast was mild and wet and My father came in after doing the evening measurements they saying it's mild but it isn't. Next morning it was sleeting this soon turned to snow and dumped about half a foot of snow perhaps more.

I do pit. Remember in the 70s esp 78-79 checking the country file forecast ete. Sometimes a thaw was forecast and you'd get up and it would be a blizzard. Great days and less stressful ie model output thread