Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes there are many things this is and "finely balanced" and "unpredictable" are not included.

think an amber should of been in place met will never learn

 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

It does come a bit further west around half 12/1

Nice not complaining though. 

[TyphoonNow]

3 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Just starting to see a few bigger flakes here, and slight evidence on the radar that it's filling out to the West

Hope so! I’m in town centre and it’s still light.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, LeeSnowFan said:

think an amber should of been in place met will never learn

 

The warning last night was too narrow and for it to be updated after the event had already begun is really embarassing for British meteorology.

[Arnie1965]

Light Snow in Spalding now

 

 

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Nice not complaining though. 

So close

[Kasim Awan]

The front will wiggle around now as Scott says ultimately no huge thermodynamic swings for the area now so for Yorkshire the precip type will likely remain quite stable.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, winterof79 said:

So close

Yes, it moved east last minute so 850hpa 0 line is causing issues here. It's light powdery snow here.

[mike57]

Rain at the coast... A bit of sleet during the heavier bursts. No hope for us I think.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Just now, winterof79 said:

So close

That's not entirely reflective of the actual situation though, it hasn't stopped at all here in (near enough) central Hudds. since 7.00am, and whilst it's smaller flakes now it's still at least moderate in terms on intensity

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

So close

The easterly winds are exploding the radar now its fairly obviois the heavy snow is expanding from a stalled position

[Tim A]

We are getting absolutely battered in that heavier area.

I don't like to overestimate snow amounts and haven't been to measure but there is at least 4 inches maybe more and continues to come down fast.  Cannot believe we have had two of these amazing days in less than a week.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

That's not entirely reflective of the actual situation though, it hasn't stopped at all here in (near enough) central Hudds. since 7.00am, and whilst it's smaller flakes now it's still at least moderate in terms on intensity

The snow is more powder type and has a smaller equation of water so its actually settling quicker due to the colder 850s

[Kasim Awan]

19 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

It is possible to make a snow forecast, one has to just be aware of the uncertainties involved and communicate them. Failure to communicate and identify the risks involved imo carry more weight & potential responsibility afterwards. It's always worth giving a fair probabilistic view than remaining glued to the fence. With that in mind, the below is my post in the Mod thread I have had a request to post on here.

Yes, you effectively covered my point about the uncertainty as all the unorganized precip will do is prevent the ground environment below 200 metres (which is where there is marginality) from being conducive.

Given the projection of a well defined area of precipitation tomorrow, the outcome of some snow to lower levels producing a lowland area of snow maybe no greater than 5-25,000km^2 (up to 10% of the UK) with accumulations of 1-6cm in the favored stretch is fairly high in confidence. Of course, there are mechanisms which increase snow with altitude (orographic lift, lower temperatures, lower ground temperatures), and this means locally 20cm+ is possible for somewhere like Queensbury tomorrow. This is most favoured to occur across West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Notts, Derbs, into the North & East Midlands before moving towards the home counties. Even in this situation, there will be marginality on the north, south, west and eastern side of the snow area which will all result from slightly different thermodynamic mechanisms. North & east - lack of evap cooling. West -Fohen effect, lack of evap cooling. South - lack of cold air and low dew point injection from east. Defining which areas will see this is very uncertain and is down to nowcasting, however this does not take away or limit the main precip area evap cooling derived snow from verifying.

A strong consensus (70%) of weather models show this area verifying, the uncertainty is more to do with placement further south. The outcome of snow to lower levels in the Northern areas is not a certainty infact far from it however, the probabilistic forecasting method is always the way to go with consensus whilst leaving room for other possibilities which is what I've done, and you have covered here. Other outcomes include a more northerly track (some of Harmonie runs) and a more unorganized precipitation regime. However, I feel at this moment it would be unrealistic to go with 50/50 or even say "too close to call" for the precip further north at least, given the data for the triple point system which I am looking at. This does not discount a more unorganized precip area from occurring, just gives it a chance of say 25% whilst remaining aware that the higher confidence of snow for some areas (S Yorkshire, North & East Midlands) means imo a warning is valid from both an impact and likelihood perspective. Further south there is a risk of some snow too which of course will be bounded by the same spatial marginality mentioned above. Uncertainty is always the case with snow it's about doing the best one can with the data provided and forecasting knowledge to warn the public beforehand.

 

The precip took the organized route.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

The snow is more powder type and has a smaller equation of water so its actually settling quicker due to the colder 850s

Bit of a drip slush snow going on atm. Hopefully picks up

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, swfc said:

Bit of a drip slush snow going on atm. Hopefully picks up

You just need it to head west and stay there till the night and youll keep all the snow

[hippo]

Powdery snow drizzle here in SW Sheffield too. Still going but been like this for a few hours now. 
 

edit: car tracks are compressed snow, so doesn’t look to slushy. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by hippo

[Winter Cold]

Current scene here. A few inches now and still coming down!

[Pipine]

Still snowing fairly heavily here. 

[SouthYorks]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The easterly winds are exploding the radar now its fairly obviois the heavy snow is expanding from a stalled position

Just noticed that on the Radar.  Green area is expanding very slightly and showing increased intensity.

 

[Kasim Awan]

YORKSHIRE DEL NARNIA

Edited January 14, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Kasim Awan]

Harrogate / Otley area is the sweet spot atm. 10cm at 60m asl.

[Cheese Rice]

The models were definitely wrong in the intensity of the precipitation. 

Euro4 is only just catching on, showing a much more pronounced band across Yorkshire and retaining its intensity till 3pm rather than 12. 

Moderate snow here, high ground definitely doing the best out of this.

 

[Bradowl]

Best snowfall in years and I'm stuck inside a factory with no windows. 

[stupotlee]

Just got in from making an aborted attempt at getting to a client's in Worsborough from Penistone.

All Stagecoach bus services in Barnsley, Rotherham and Doncaster have been suspended from 11:15am

Got to thank our driver, an absolute star, got us into Penistone and just had to walk the last few miles home

Here's a few pics of the journey