Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Again, you can see the "Base" freezing line of 500-600m in the North Sea indicated by the blue colours. Inland the freezing lines look very good, indicating that the evporative cooling conditions are met quite easily under the persistent moderate rainfall, bringing the freezing-line down to about 150m (snow to 10-50m). Indicates the potential for fairly widespread snow-conducive cooling if this slightly stronger & westerly track option is taken.

Under this westerly track good rainfall intensity does i agree without doubt give yorkshire a decent event thursday 

[Scott Ingham]

18 minutes ago, Sunny_AS said:

Thanks for the info, to those on both sides of the analysis. What I like about the Yorkshire thread is everyone is respectful enough to agree to disagree. 

Agreed.

Its impossible not to have respect to pit and cheese.

They are excellent balanced posters on the thread

It doesnt mean we all have the same opinions and it doesnt mean its personal.

We all want the same thing - snow!

And i hope we get it!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Under this westerly track good rainfall intensity does i agree without doubt give yorkshire a decent event thursday 

Yeah, however I'm far from 100% yet as still the cold air timings need to be right, as does the frontal strength.

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

Yes, same here. Meto have me at 2c predicted now to on the website and I'm reading 0.1c on my station, so a lot cooler.

Dew point currently -1 as well! 

Also for me its the reasons models do get things wrong.

These differences can make the difference in marginal situations

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah, however I'm far from 100% yet as still the cold air timings need to be right, as does the frontal strength.

Yeah true! Well have a better idea tomorrow morning. Intensity well know come the day!

[Adam lufc]

Now nearly -4. 0c according MO.

[Craigers]

43 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Again, you can see the "Base" freezing line of 500-600m in the North Sea indicated by the blue colours. Inland the freezing lines look very good, indicating that the evporative cooling conditions are met quite easily under the persistent moderate rainfall, bringing the freezing-line down to about 150m (snow to 10-50m). Indicates the potential for fairly widespread snow-conducive cooling if this slightly stronger & westerly track option is taken. Produces 1-6cm to lower levels fairly widely, with a greater precip intensity requirement on the coastal strip (0 to 8 miles from coast) due to an easterly developing, less likely that this will be met for those on the coast - have more a 2C starting point so need double the evap cooling requirements discussed above which is for 1C wet bulb reduction > here you need a 2C wet bulb reduction. So worse here.

What i love about this perfect explanation is exactly what happened last Friday here.

Can see the time it took to drop temperature down to make the snow settle. 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Craigers said:

What i love about this perfect explanation is exactly what happened last Friday here.

Can see the time it took to drop temperature down to make the snow settle. 

Aye, it's so often the case in the UK as the precipitation intensity is so often within 2-3mm per hour & temps are around 2-3C to start with at lower levels, so the thermodynamic response is quite similar. Of course discounting any horrible maritime layer which would require a greater duration of evaporative cooling to erode & short waves with 3-7mm per hour rates which produce quicker responses.

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Craigers]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Aye, it's so often the case in the UK as the precipitation intensity is so often within 2-3mm per hour & temps are around 2-3C to start with at lower levels. Of course discounting any horrible maritime layer which would take a greater duration of evaporative cooling.

Might be totally off the mark but local cold pooling areas can help in a situation like this? 

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Might be totally off the mark but local cold pooling areas can help in a situation like this? 

It depends on the situation. Yes if the precipitation is light and winds are light, then the surface inversions will be largely maintained. If it is a major front, this is more often than not removed as the adiabatic profile (temperature of the front) overrides this.

P.S. in the data you showed me there, the temp decline looks a bit slow, at 0.5C per hour. This suggests it was not associated with the main bulk of precipitation.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Craigers]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It depends on the situation. Yes if the precipitation is light and winds are light, then the surface inversions will be largely maintained. If it is a major front, this is more often than not removed as the adiabatic profile (temperature of the front) overrides this.

P.S. in the data you showed me there, the temp decline looks a bit slow, at 0.5C per hour. This suggests it was not associated with the main bulk of precipitation.

Thank you! It makes it even more exciting tomorrow then

[Craigers]

Long range trends keep getting better and better! Thanks to the legend John Holmes  

[summer blizzard]

Met Office delaying the system ever more. Now 11am though we have to wait the better part of 22 hours for potential snow.

[Craigers]

GFS 18Z P

[winterof79]

And before it sinks 

[winterof79]

44 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Met Office delaying the system ever more. Now 11am though we have to wait the better part of 22 hours for potential snow.

What warning update? 

Chill time

 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by winterof79

[winterof79]

weather model knmi - harmonie-arome model - united kingdom - rain/snowfall [base + 24] - loop | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

 

[Scott Ingham]

26 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

weather model knmi - harmonie-arome model - united kingdom - rain/snowfall [base + 24] - loop | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

 

Thats a great run!

Big fan of this short term model as well

[Cheese Rice]

An upgrade on the Met Office for high ground areas around 200m.

[LeeSnowFan]

Good Morning still looking good for parts of our region

[Aaron Roberts]

Rain/Sleet in this initial band at the moment in The Pennines above Sowerby Bridge/Ryburn Valley. Hopefully some snow tomorrow, although it all seems short lived before milder weekend temps. Enjoy the weather watching!

 

[LeeSnowFan]

Tonight:

Rain becoming heavier and persistent during the evening, turning gradually to sleet at low levels but snow over high ground. Some significant accumulations expected. A cold night. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Thursday:

Outbreaks of rain, snow over high ground, slowly easing through the morning whilst becoming confined to the west. Some bright spells likely in East Yorkshire by the afternoon. Remaining cold. Maximum temperature 3 °C.

[joggs]

That's not a good update imo. And the mod thread.................car crash this morning.

Hope the ukmo stick to their Scandinavian cold later next week. Gfs, ukmo are stinkers this morn. Could be a snow event tomorrow then back to day 10 potential.  

[swfc]

Well lame sleet and snow tonight Tom could be the main event going forward. The models and output going down the Gary at a rapid rate this morning.

[The PIT]

Bit of freezing rain this morning before temperatures lifted but ice still possible out there in spots so be wary.

Overnight run looks a lot better will look deeper tonight when I got back from my soggy walk after work.