Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[waddleisgod]

I know sky weather isn’t the best, but they did just say up to a foot of snow expect in our area Thursday!!!!!

[summer blizzard]

Sadly I expect the morning update will probably reduce the extent to North Yorkshire but I'll be very impressed if the Met Office score a win here.

[SouthYorks]

Arpege about the only model currently showing snow for a wide area of our region on Thursday, but it’s been fairly consistent with this.  Other models seem to limit snow to highest ground to the East only.  It will be interesting to see what Harmonie and NMM show when it comes into their range.

[LeeSnowFan]

14 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Sadly I expect the morning update will probably reduce the extent to North Yorkshire but I'll be very impressed if the Met Office score a win here.

what time is the update?

[summer blizzard]

The update yesterday was 11.22 I think.

[SouthYorks]

6z run from Icon a big improvement for snow for us for Thursday, with it giving about 8 hours of snow!  Was previously showing the ppn moving through as all rain.  

Edited January 12, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Empire Of Snow]

I know what I don't want for sure. Freezing rain. Temps under clear skies will fall to - 4 or - 5 tonight. Winds initially will be from South direction tomorrow. This means either freezing rain or very heavy snow.

[SouthYorks]

GFS // also going for same distribution of snow as Icon on Thursday, albeit about 8-10 hours later.  Main GFS Op run still not interested in snow for same time period.

Edited January 12, 2021 by SouthYorks

[waddleisgod]

It Is probably going to be about elevation again,

 

200m+ asl looking good

150m+ asl decent chance 

 

That’s my unqualified guess anyway 

Edited January 12, 2021 by waddleisgod

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, waddleisgod said:

It Is probably going to be about elevation again,

 

200m+ asl looking good

150m+ asl decent chance 

 

That’s my unqualified guess anyway 

125asl here  we normally get a good covering with snow events so anymore than a covering would be a bonus

[winterof79]

Expecting a shift south of the warning for Thursday

[summer blizzard]

So the Met Office consider the Euro4 their go to model for high Res shirt range and as excited as you all get over low Res op runs I was curious as to why nobody was posting it.

Essentially on Wednesday the Euro4 confines snow to east of York, it does show snow spreading west on Thursday morning when it ends.

[summer blizzard]

12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Expecting a shift south of the warning for Thursday

On what basis. The Met Office are unlikely to back low Res ops over their high Res models.

[Paul]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

So the Met Office consider the Euro4 their go to model for high Res shirt range and as excited as you all get over low Res op runs I was curious as to why nobody was posting it.

 

They don't to be fair, it's old and has actually been deprecated, so isn't being updated etc. It's still there, in use and operational, but it'll not be their 'go-to' ahead of the likes of the UKV. 

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Paul said:

They don't to be fair, it's old and has actually been deprecated, so isn't being updated etc. It's still there, in use and operational, but it'll not be their 'go-to' ahead of the likes of the UKV. 

Ah. 

 

Ignore my question, I see it's available on Netweather extra.

Edited January 12, 2021 by summer blizzard

[winterof79]

44 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

On what basis. The Met Office are unlikely to back low Res ops over their high Res models.

I expected more of the south of Yorkshire and Peak District. to be involved on that basis. 

Euro4 will do me

weather model euro4 h model - united kingdom - rain/snowfall [base + 24] - loop | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data...

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by winterof79

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Met office has moved the warning area as far South as Derbyshire but York no longer in the warning area....

Risk of 2-5cms on low ground 5-10cms above 200m......

Edited January 12, 2021 by Kentish Snowman in Yorks

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

Met office has moved the warning area as far South as Derbyshire but York no longer in the warning area....

Risk of 2-5cms on low ground 5-10cms above 200m......

yup wasn't a weather warning for my area but there is now something must be happening

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

Met office has moved the warning area as far South as Derbyshire but York no longer in the warning area....

Risk of 2-5cms on low ground 5-10cms above 200m......

Was discussing this with Scott yesterday that we thought warning would extend south 

[summer blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

Met office has moved the warning area as far South as Derbyshire but York no longer in the warning area....

Risk of 2-5cms on low ground 5-10cms above 200m......

Wow. This suggests that they basically expect every other model to be pushing the front too far east.

[Winter Cold]

Good it's moved South a bit.

Reading the warning ties into the graphics really, main snow risk into Thursday. For me it's showing rain weds, and then sleet to snow Thurs. Hopefully it turns to snow whilst we've still got some decent rates around.

Shame it looks to warm up a bit Friday into the weekend. I was hoping if we got something we'd be able to keep it in time for the main event next week!

[winterof79]

METO taking out more low lying areas 

 

Reason for update

Start time delayed, with greater emphasis on ice at start of warning period. Southern extent of warning area adjusted. Suggested snow amounts reduced slightly.

An area of rain pushing north-eastwards is expected to turn snow in places as it encounters colder air across Scotland and parts of northern England. At first the main hazard may be of rain falling onto frozen surfaces leading to ice, especially on higher level routes. However snow becomes more likely later Wednesday and at least for a time on Thursday. Heavier snowfall is more likely above 100 m in Scotland and above 200 m in England, where 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate, possibly 20 cm on highest routes. At lower levels, 2 - 5 cm of snow may accumulate in places, but the situation remains finely balanced, with the possibility that most lower-lying areas in northern England see rain or sleet rather than snow.

[York-snow]

York missing out again?! Shock

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

Good it's moved South a bit.

Reading the warning ties into the graphics really, main snow risk into Thursday. For me it's showing rain weds, and then sleet to snow Thurs. Hopefully it turns to snow whilst we've still got some decent rates around.

Shame it looks to warm up a bit Friday into the weekend. I was hoping if we got something we'd be able to keep it in time for the main event next week!

Probably not warming up at all. Dew points. 

850s

Temp Oc

[fazzafarrand]

All this talk, is it the front coming into Ireland now that’s going to be here Wednesday into Thursday, if not snow possible flooding issues??