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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

Battleground Snow
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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I've always remembered it dropping after 240, unless they have updated it?

From wiki

"The GFS model is a spectral model with an approximate horizontal resolution of 13 km for the first 10 days and 27 km from 240 to 384 hours (16 days)"

 

In fact regards to the precipitation point you can see it here switching between 240 and 252

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 18Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE
Wetterkarten GFS Europe 18Z

 

FV3 GFS is hi-res throughout the run. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

GFS precipitation charts highlight potential snow showers coming across the North Sea next week...and a little further on we see more widespread areas of wintry conditions...all be it,deep into fi,but nice to see all the same...I've got me shovel primed and ready for action...

18_156_preciptype.png

18_162_preciptype.png

18_237_preciptype.png

18_240_preciptype.png

21inpu.jpg

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

GFSp making a meal out of it but should get there in the end...

88AB2CB3-B467-4D7C-9D49-B65A9DBCDE25.png

Far more supportive this run though over all  

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

After 168, there is a lot of different solutions, in the GEFS some do follow the op, but FI is probably somewhere between 120 and 144 at the moment

Completely agree. 12z NYE will be when we know I think. May as well watch those outputs as there is little else to do.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted (edited)

The short gefs ens for London...

Untitled.thumb.png.74b3749259deb534c68c11ce3d7e1cca.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Perhaps a relaxation of the cold as per the majority of ensembles ? Hopefully just a pause to enjoy some sunshine whilst the strat re shuffles the pack? 

A0BB21EB-E88E-4767-96BD-9AB14A9ACC26.png

9BEE655B-B8CA-411F-8960-42650D70B828.png

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
Just now, Man With Beard said:

Amazing pub run but how on earth did it sink the high at the end? It was hemmed in on all sides?

Definitely looks strange to me, it just suddenly drops south like a dumb bell

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Mean getting down tp -7. That's more like it.

They are getting colder with every run Jason☺️

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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted
Just now, Howie said:

Definitely looks strange to me, it just suddenly drops south like a dumb bell

At 2 weeks out, it's an option. Very encouraged by the shorter/mid-term outlook on this run though.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Popular Post
Posted

I decided to have the evening off watching the model runs..... that went well.  Spectacular pub run and hopefully it will be continued on the overnights.  The short GEFS are the best of this winter to date for my location.  A very cold week and a bit (at least) coming up.

image.thumb.png.276c9a5a7f59731fb05995feef18652f.png

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted

What a run that was?

think only one thing that can make it better! A @Steve MurrBOOM!❄️
 

It’s still snowless here so I’m getting pretty desperate! 
hopefully we are onto something now and see more consistency but as ever - it’ll probably be a rollercoaster as usual

 

all aboard - things are getting VERY exciting❄️

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Amazing pub run but how on earth did it sink the high at the end? It was hemmed in on all sides?

Looks a bit odd doesn’t it

anim_zvy7.gif

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weathercold Aficionado

weathercold

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted (edited)

Just viewed the 18z....(picks himself off the floor)! WTF!❄️
I mentioned earlier not to get too hung up over the placement of the high 5 days +, it will likely move run to run, as expected at this timeframe. However, if it falls right, an epic outcome awaits as per the 18z GFS run. 
We’re in the game ....

Edited by weathercold
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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Still showing as rain due to the positive DPs unfortunately. See tweet from meto which discusses. Sorry gang. I’ll try and find my positive pants for tomorrow!

C0B2FB2E-9F8D-4076-8920-D3A61F959DA2.jpeg

224AAF2A-3313-44AC-B4B1-8937E1EAA53C.jpeg

I can't help thinking that the DP charts should come out first and, after a cursory glance, if they aren't 0 or below then I can skip the rest and move on until the next run.

Edited by The Enforcer
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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Please please be the same in the morning gfs!!!!!!!!i still got my doubts!!not comfortable until ecm comes on bored!!00zs have brought us back down to earth recently!!!!also the ukmo want it to be the same if not better!!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

I’ll leave you tonight with T312, GFS and GFS parallel:

245851EF-8F65-4276-A237-1C39946671A2.thumb.png.da32222315c47b1e82a0b648a8517acf.png1490F25C-5DDD-485E-8F64-BD1F8E712928.thumb.png.f63d35973f1720099072698b742557cf.png

Parallel is looking more likely to me, but either way there’s some cold coming....

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