Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    This post paints a rather different picture to what they are actually suggesting. Any posters feeling instantly glum - go read what both are saying on twitter. Marco's post is particularly interesting in terms of what he doesnt say...and Matt is musing over impacts of the vortex displacement while making it very clear that there is still a disconnect between strat and trop. He is certainly not touting a westerly burst of any significance.

    Remember that ECM is processing significantly more strat data than gfs. As the strat breakup occurs then ECM has to be the model of choice. All those with less strat resolution are more likely to be subject to swings and inaccuracy.

     

     

    Yes I read the post and yes I did feel instantly glum haha  ..

    Certainly EC and attendant mean look good to me this morning !!

    Edited by northwestsnow
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes I read the post and yes I did feel instantly glum haha  ..

    Certainly EC and attendant mean look good to me this morning !!

    GFS worst this mornings 00Z's, rain for many Wednesday, snow on UKMO and EC

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Good morning, Happy New Year everyone, stay safe & good luck in 2021. 👍 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Happy New Year, everyone...

    Och well, the GFS 00Z looks like a bit of a dog's breakfast, to me, so I'll stick with the NH Profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-120.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    There appears that there's a signal for a nice HP setting-up close to the pole... Zonal wind reversal?

    Warning: FANTASY ISLAND!

    Edited by General Cluster
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Well the upgrade on ecm for the easterly is quite something to behold!!credit to ukmo for that!!i mean we gone from -5 850s to nearly -9!!evm clearly lagging!!ukmo looks brilliant this morning!!expectimg upgrades from gfs shortly!!gfs is an outlier around 6 to 8th of january!!great start to the morning!!oh ecm got the kink at 72 hours👊😉

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
    34 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    This post paints a rather different picture to what they are actually suggesting. Any posters feeling instantly glum - go read what both are saying on twitter. Marco's post is particularly interesting in terms of what he doesnt say...and Matt is musing over impacts of the vortex displacement while making it very clear that there is still a disconnect between strat and trop. He is certainly not touting a westerly burst of any significance.

    Remember that ECM is processing significantly more strat data than gfs. As the strat breakup occurs then ECM has to be the model of choice. All those with less strat resolution are more likely to be subject to swings and inaccuracy.

     

     

    MetO own recent blog agrees with you Catacol, thankfully. 

    ssw-291220.png?w=640
    BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    The second half of December has seen dramatic swings between different weather patterns. Storm Bella brought strong winds and flooding, while the current flow of air...
    Edited by supernova
    Link added
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 hour ago, mulzy said:

    HNY all!

    ECM a pretty wintry run in FI.

    Yes the ens models in general are suppressing the far off extended period flatter flow into a more wnw/sse. Just one set of runs but best it goes that way than the other .......

    swings and roundabouts on the nwp ......

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Well the upgrade on ecm for the easterly is quite something to behold!!credit to ukmo for that!!i mean we gone from -5 850s to nearly -9!!evm clearly lagging!!ukmo looks brilliant this morning!!expectimg upgrades from gfs shortly!!gfs is an outlier around 6 to 8th of january!!great start to the morning!!oh ecm got the kink at 72 hours👊😉

    More snow here this morning (OK only 3 flakes so far) than for the whole of last week... not sure this deserves a mention in the regionals yet?

    Looking at the models this morning, the ICON continues to tease something as it has all Christmas IMBY and so far failed spectacularly. 

    Happy with the UKMO and ecm evolution. 

    Ask me again about the GFS and likewise the para this afternoon. It's new year and everyone deserves a second chance! 

    Nothing is over (except 2020), model wise, far from it, this roller coaster is just getting started. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well I'm baffled...

    I posted the EC /UKMO uppers yet I've just read the BBC outlook text and the line turning windier and less cold early next week.

    Can someone enlighten me as to why?

    Ps this is the local forecast....with the uppers here -7/-8 all week...

    They forecast 4c for me yesterday...reality...0c

     

    BFTP

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Some conflicting issues this morning Matt Hugo on Twitter stating drop in 850 hpa next week

    while BBC saying slight pick up in temperatures with rain showers more likely.

    Matt Hugo stating marginal but snow more likely away from coastal regions very interesting.

    We will of course find out soon.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    It’s simple - the BBC forecasts never seem to use the latest data. Seen it so many times in the past since they stopped using the Met Office. As a licence fee payer, it wrangles me!

    Good to see ECM on the money this morning. Hoping for a better GFS 6z.

    There are also a few premature posts declaring the end is in sight for the cold spell. It’s all in FI so too early to call it.

     

     

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    HNY gang. Early next week (according to ECM) now colder but mainly dry. By Thursdaythere’s more in the way of snow showers and by the weekend it’s really starting to pile up 👍🏻

    2881F6EC-A77D-4EEB-8311-322D4979CDDA.jpeg

    FF646000-478E-4098-97E3-4A38C56F5508.jpeg

    6F0CC97E-FE19-472A-BA37-FB14ABE1BDF9.jpeg

    8653729B-015A-4B4E-A9ED-5F5B086E5B8D.jpeg

    A3BEAABF-434C-4645-8913-0D8C89829788.jpeg

    1B4D20D5-531C-4935-9FE3-A0387E108AAF.jpeg

    4B00233A-FC6A-4872-AA05-20BB58A53ED4.jpeg

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Oh and the ECM mean a stonker as well 👍 . Cold all the way . 🥶

    Happy new year everyone 💥

    08F914E2-A0F6-4C47-BCAF-B85C51B4485B.png

    3CBDB29C-1221-45CB-BBEF-E1E702F8008E.png

    CA8AF330-0AA8-465F-ABC4-9A88C060D4CA.png

    E4AE1C4D-F321-4C6D-A7C5-CA4131461A51.png

    7E67F55A-55E7-4666-85C8-05FC871C4B10.png

    87A09FF3-9797-4E92-9DDC-BAA4048AB9D6.png

    EFC3A809-4E62-4B55-B628-F5826C7AA911.png

    02BBF065-DCA8-49DD-98FA-37664DD1257A.png

    456E843F-7E9F-409A-AAD4-A80D238DF5C6.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Some conflicting issues this morning Matt Hugo on Twitter stating drop in 850 hpa next week

    while BBC saying slight pick up in temperatures with rain showers more likely.

    Matt Hugo stating marginal but snow more likely away from coastal regions very interesting.

    We will of course find out soon.

    The more organised areas of rain were associated with the higher Dp’s.  Those are fast disappearing and as they go, so the lower uppers replace them. If we do indeed get a brisk onshore flow for a few days with low uppers and Dp’s then we can expect to see some disturbances in the flow ......

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Anyway back to square one on the icon!heights going into greenland at 120 hours!!what a joke of a model recently!!!

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    They forecast 4c for me yesterday...reality...0c

     

    BFTP

    Its poor isn't it Fred.

    Really poor.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Persistent Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hatfield, Herts

    Interesting runs suggesting colder uppers next week conducive to Snow. 

    Always hope the work & effort of this site from members can see more than the BBC for example and get the weather right above their forecasts. 

    Activity from the North Sea currently giving rain on coast & sleet & snow in land. 

    Noticing that showers are merging as they come south.

    An area of precipitation through the Midlands and heading for SW Britain is gaining momentum as it heads further south. 

    I think this is a sign that despite the weather ie; BBC saying for my region (Cloudy, cold, dry) actually were in nowcast with things at times. 

    Just had a light snow shower as I'm typing. 

    First Snow for almost a year here in Hatfield. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Anyway back to square one on the icon!heights going into greenland at 120 hours!!what a joke of a model recently!!!

    It has been erratic of late.

    A big step to ECM on the 06z. Let's see what the GFS brothers have to say now. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...