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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Stop it GEM😂❄🌨☃️❄🌨☃️ I would love 95% of Europe to be snow covered by the 2nd week of January of course 

    gem-16-240.png

    Edited by Kentspur
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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

    The Pv seems to be gaining strength around Greenland in FI given the SSW  I have my suspicions.. the fl that high pressure gets pushed around so easily.. I doubt it will look away close to how that run is

    Edited by Dave Kightley
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    18 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

    The way that low behaves next weekend is far from done and dusted plus even the Monday still cold out given the crap later run... I wouldn't worry yet

    Not really a worry just the wax and waning of the output. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    Not really a worry just the wax and waning of the output. 👍

    Yea with the SSW even if things do go pear shaped still got more chances..when the Models get to grip with how the North Pole behaves after the SSW I doubt the models long term anywhere

    near correct in that part of the world yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
    24 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Stop it GEM😂❄🌨☃️❄🌨☃️ I would love 95% of Europe to be snow covered by the 2nd week of January of course 

    gem-16-240.png

    Little old Ireland getting jaffa cakesed on on as usual.

    Edited by O'Maille80
    hilarious auto correct
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Yes, UKMO just about maintains the cold and dry theme to day 6, but it looks to have a warm front approaching Scotland. This is as good as it gets, GFS is frankly rubbish , Atlantic high flatter and the low to the north fails to drop south. Hopefully ECM will bring some New Year cheer. 

    UKMOPEU00_144_1-15.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
    8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Yes, UKMO just about maintains the cold and dry theme to day 6, but it looks to have a warm front approaching Scotland. This is as good as it gets, GFS is frankly rubbish , Atlantic high flatter and the low to the north fails to drop south. Hopefully ECM will bring some New Year cheer. 

    UKMOPEU00_144_1-15.png

    First of all Happy New Year to you all...

    GFS has just woken up with a very sore head this morning after seeing in the new year...  Hopefully Things will look good again later on the next run.. 🍻🍾

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    image.thumb.png.ffe87d730985156a3e75b16bf9d5cbe7.png

    EC 168....

    Corresponding 850s

    image.thumb.png.24faa6479e0ed47378c9816c302253ea.png

    Both ukmo and ec look very cold this morning...

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Ec decideds to do a u turn🙄better block heading north. Latest on next week's easterly showing any wintry weather to the hills. Hopefully some thing similar on the 6z gfs and inline with ec. The outlook is very unsure in fi but interesting given the projected ssw and various forcing on the nhp ete 👌👌just to note ec much more amplified than ukmo at 144hrs so mabye a bit exaggerated by ec? 

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Just seen the BBC long range and they are saying 5/6 c over much of the country next week, that seems crazy with this chart and uppers!! Can that be right? 

    F6CE0951-59F6-4334-8B98-8855EC0B8726.png

    473D7DB3-31E6-4DDD-8BE4-A27A5E990CC9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Booooom...

    Day 8 

    image.thumb.png.61faf7f79520e99e73abde0aa6529729.png

    Must be some heavy snow changes with that chart, you’d think!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Just seen the BBC long range and they are saying 5/6 c over much of the country next week, that seems crazy with this chart and uppers!! Can that be right? 

    F6CE0951-59F6-4334-8B98-8855EC0B8726.png

    473D7DB3-31E6-4DDD-8BE4-A27A5E990CC9.png

     I’ll run through Leeds town centre naked if those temps are right from the BBC

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Great heights building over Greeny, LP dropping over the U.K.

    Looks great compared to the GFS that’s for sure 🙌🏼🙌🏼
     

    Happy New Year 🥳 

    2582613C-86F2-42EE-B285-7E3CD3D31981.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Just seen the BBC long range and they are saying 5/6 c over much of the country next week, that seems crazy with this chart and uppers!! Can that be right? 

    F6CE0951-59F6-4334-8B98-8855EC0B8726.png

    473D7DB3-31E6-4DDD-8BE4-A27A5E990CC9.png

    Matches Mets forecast for here, no lower than 5 c. However, these are Maximum temperatures and may only be reached for a short time early afternoon with the majority of the day a good deal colder.

    Ecm has indeed injected some NY cheer, key ingredients is 1. Getting the Atlantic ridge as far north as possible and 2. If the low does drop it gets as far south as possible, a little east movement will also be nice but that probably being greedy. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Day ten on ec looks very wintry in theory. Decent sign of the Reversal on the nhp. Pretty good imo 👌👌👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 hours ago, snowking said:

    Cheers to that.

    Happy new year to one and all.

    And for anyone who’s mad enough to be up for the 0z’s, just remember that we might as well bin anything beyond day 5 right now (though I hope it’s still fun to watch), so don’t let 2021 get you down this early on.

     

    He has a point.😄 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    HNY all!

    ECM a pretty wintry run in FI.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, mulzy said:

    HNY all!

    ECM a pretty wintry run in FI.

    Think FI is day 5 mulzy...

    Ps, EC is wintry full stop...

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    BBC and MetO max temps are always rubbish and normally refer to someone living in a loft conversion in Notting Hill! For most mortals highs of 2c to 4c are more likely next week. The past 6 days have brought highs ranging from -1c to 3c here and I don’t exactly live on a mountain 

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    ECM snow lover's fantasy chart

    snowdepth_20210101_00_240.jpg

    BANK! What could possibly go wrong 🤔 

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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