Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Right, that's my year break over! That went quick..

Let's see what the ECM 00z shows in a few hours time!

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex

Whatever the weather may bring, whatever your preference, A happy new year to all on here. May we all enjoy 2021. May we all get the weather of our dreams at some point. Most of all, lets all be thankful we're  here for the next chase, and the next... and may we never forget those who wont be .

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Right, that's my year break over! That went quick..

Let's see what the ECM 00z shows tomorrow morning!

Tomorrow, as in the 2nd? Is the ECM 00z coming out in a few hours time a joke to you?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Tomorrow, as in the 2nd? Is the ECM 00z coming out in a few hours time a joke to you?

Sorry! I'm starting to get tired... even though I go to bed at 3am every single day

Anyway, roll on December 32nd!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton

 A tipsy cheeky Happy New Year to the Mod thread on the most best forum in the world - you are like rock stars, you see me through.  Thank you all for your humour, brains and banter.  It's kept me waiting for autumn/winter since 2009 and forever more, for sure.  Bring on the Snaw!

Edit :  It's not a mod thread.. it's a model output discussion thread 

Edited by Alpine glow
Booze
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Happy New year to all on the best weather watchers thread anywhere.

I raise you..

gensnh-31-1-240.webp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by matty40s
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
42 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

Whatever the weather may bring, whatever your preference, A happy new year to all on here. May we all enjoy 2021. May we all get the weather of our dreams at some point. Most of all, lets all be thankful we're  here for the next chase, and the next... and may we never forget those who wont be .

Lovely words. And a Happy New Year from me to one and all. I post rarely but read daily and you have all kept my spirits up this year, so thank you.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
46 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

Whatever the weather may bring, whatever your preference, A happy new year to all on here. May we all enjoy 2021. May we all get the weather of our dreams at some point. Most of all, lets all be thankful we're  here for the next chase, and the next... and may we never forget those who wont be .

Cheers to that.

Happy new year to one and all.

And for anyone who’s mad enough to be up for the 0z’s, just remember that we might as well bin anything beyond day 5 right now (though I hope it’s still fun to watch), so don’t let 2021 get you down this early on.

 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Just as well our team remembered to empty the trash can, as it was full from the binned runs The models do seem to have a number of things to resolve for next week, particularly mid week onwards with that possible attempt for Low Pressure to drop down from the North.

One thing about the New Year is that it could very well bring about quite a few white surprises, which could help to brighten things up for a number. Trust it to be a year where Covid is not a big pain anymore and that it can be one where we draw closer to the light at the end of the tunnel

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
26 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ladies and gentlemen the first chart from 2021, and I think the icon had some new years drinks. Not a bad chart for cold but a lot different to the other output.

180

 

iconnh-0-180 (5).png

iconnh-1-180 (1).png

I was thinking the same tbf, but what I like about this evolution is that it keeps us in relatively cold upper air temps throughout the run rather than a relaxation in minus 850HPA temps like yesterday's run did- all positives for helping to lower wet bulbs and dew points etc etc

icon-1-180.png

Edited by Kentspur
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

Hmmm GFS at 174, going more easterly, rather from the north. Just hope the high don't topple on UK later on.

Edit: think I prefer the para, which has kept the low dropping from Iceland

168 attached

Further edit: gem drops the low right on top of the UK at 162.

gfsnh-0-174 (3).png

gfsnh-0-168 (2).png

gemnh-0-162.png

Edited by Battleground Snow
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

I would love GEM to be right but I'm sure its snow precip accumulation charts are nothing more than cannon fodder they've showed snowmaggedon for the past few days and weren't even close to being right, still as its a new year I'll give it another chance, but I doubt it will be anything like this, a few spots even in the South and SE getting a light dusting of snow today? Think that's a bit optimistic and most the country is shown to be under snow by midweek, can GEM just be right for once?

20210101_043057.jpg

20210101_043016.jpg

20210101_043002.jpg

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Good morning and welcome to 2021

(Worse? How could it be worse?)

 

 

I don't like the GFS or UKMO route of leaving low pressure lingering to the N of the UK instead of having it drop cleanly South as with GFSp since the cleaner progression of the parallel run would keep the pattern more amplified and likely lead to quicker return to a cold flow instead of just throwing ever more ingredients into the ensuing synoptic stew as the flatter pattern that results with UKMO and GFS Op would bring.

 

144 UKMO/GFSop/GFSp

UN144-21.GIF?01-05gfsnh-0-144.pnggfsnh-0-144.png

 

To illustrate the point here are GFSp 168/192 V GFS op 168/192

gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-192.png

gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-192.png

 

Plenty of changes to come I'm sure but I hope ECM sticks with dropping the low cleanly S but without it deepening as it did with the 12z

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Sinker its looking like, knew as soon as i lowered my CET the models would flip mild

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Morning and happy new year. Looking so far this morning like a bit of weakening in the ridging to the west and a subtle change in fi to anything has wintry looking. Mabye a wobble but all will be revealed this weekend I guess. Still a decent cold shot but possibly not has prolonged has was previously expected. Onwards and upwards

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

The way that low behaves next weekend is far from done and dusted plus even the Monday still cold out given the crap later run... I wouldn't worry yet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...