Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Right, that's my year break over! That went quick.. 😉

    Let's see what the ECM 00z shows in a few hours time!

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex

    Whatever the weather may bring, whatever your preference, A happy new year to all on here. May we all enjoy 2021. May we all get the weather of our dreams at some point. Most of all, lets all be thankful we're  here for the next chase, and the next... and may we never forget those who wont be .

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    Wishing all of you a very happy and healthy new year 🥳 I hope we get a stunning set of 00z model runs to salivate over in the morning 🤞❄️☃️

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Whitstable, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and plenty of it.
  • Location: Whitstable, Kent

    Nice words.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Right, that's my year break over! That went quick.. 😉

    Let's see what the ECM 00z shows tomorrow morning!

    Tomorrow, as in the 2nd? Is the ECM 00z coming out in a few hours time a joke to you?😉

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

    Tomorrow, as in the 2nd? Is the ECM 00z coming out in a few hours time a joke to you?😉

    Sorry! I'm starting to get tired... even though I go to bed at 3am every single day 😅😴

    Anyway, roll on December 32nd!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton

     A tipsy cheeky Happy New Year to the Mod thread on the most best forum in the world - you are like rock stars, you see me through.  Thank you all for your humour, brains and banter.  It's kept me waiting for autumn/winter since 2009 and forever more, for sure.  Bring on the Snaw!

    Edit :  It's not a mod thread.. it's a model output discussion thread 🥳

    Edited by Alpine glow
    Booze
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: east coast Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold and more cold
  • Location: east coast Ireland

    Happy new year everyone!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    Happy New year to all on the best weather watchers thread anywhere.

    I raise you..

    gensnh-31-1-240.webp

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by matty40s
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Hampshire/Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: North Hampshire/Surrey
    42 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

    Whatever the weather may bring, whatever your preference, A happy new year to all on here. May we all enjoy 2021. May we all get the weather of our dreams at some point. Most of all, lets all be thankful we're  here for the next chase, and the next... and may we never forget those who wont be .

    Lovely words. And a Happy New Year from me to one and all. I post rarely but read daily and you have all kept my spirits up this year, so thank you. 😘

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
    46 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

    Whatever the weather may bring, whatever your preference, A happy new year to all on here. May we all enjoy 2021. May we all get the weather of our dreams at some point. Most of all, lets all be thankful we're  here for the next chase, and the next... and may we never forget those who wont be .

    Cheers to that.

    Happy new year to one and all.

    And for anyone who’s mad enough to be up for the 0z’s, just remember that we might as well bin anything beyond day 5 right now (though I hope it’s still fun to watch), so don’t let 2021 get you down this early on.

     

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Just as well our team remembered to empty the trash can, as it was full from the binned runs 😅 The models do seem to have a number of things to resolve for next week, particularly mid week onwards with that possible attempt for Low Pressure to drop down from the North.

    One thing about the New Year is that it could very well bring about quite a few white surprises, which could help to brighten things up for a number. Trust it to be a year where Covid is not a big pain anymore and that it can be one where we draw closer to the light at the end of the tunnel 🌟

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Ladies and gentlemen the first chart from 2021, and I think the icon had some new years drinks. Not a bad chart for cold but a lot different to the other output.

    180

     

    iconnh-0-180 (5).png

    iconnh-1-180 (1).png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    26 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Ladies and gentlemen the first chart from 2021, and I think the icon had some new years drinks. Not a bad chart for cold but a lot different to the other output.

    180

     

    iconnh-0-180 (5).png

    iconnh-1-180 (1).png

    I was thinking the same tbf, but what I like about this evolution is that it keeps us in relatively cold upper air temps throughout the run rather than a relaxation in minus 850HPA temps like yesterday's run did- all positives for helping to lower wet bulbs and dew points etc etc

    icon-1-180.png

    Edited by Kentspur
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Posted (edited)

    UKMO at 96 and 120.

    Perhaps a more organized area of snow into the south east at 120

    Not sure about 144. Looks a bit like the icon route

    UN96-21 (1).gif

    UN120-21 (2).gif

    UN144-21 (2).gif

    Edited by Battleground Snow
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Posted (edited)

    Hmmm GFS at 174, going more easterly, rather from the north. Just hope the high don't topple on UK later on.

    Edit: think I prefer the para, which has kept the low dropping from Iceland

    168 attached

    Further edit: gem drops the low right on top of the UK at 162.

    gfsnh-0-174 (3).png

    gfsnh-0-168 (2).png

    gemnh-0-162.png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    I would love GEM to be right but I'm sure its snow precip accumulation charts are nothing more than cannon fodder they've showed snowmaggedon for the past few days and weren't even close to being right, still as its a new year I'll give it another chance, but I doubt it will be anything like this, a few spots even in the South and SE getting a light dusting of snow today? Think that's a bit optimistic and most the country is shown to be under snow by midweek, can GEM just be right for once?

    20210101_043057.jpg

    20210101_043016.jpg

    20210101_043002.jpg

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

    GFS from Friday goes abit iffy

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Good morning and welcome to 2021

    (Worse? How could it be worse?)

     

     

    I don't like the GFS or UKMO route of leaving low pressure lingering to the N of the UK instead of having it drop cleanly South as with GFSp since the cleaner progression of the parallel run would keep the pattern more amplified and likely lead to quicker return to a cold flow instead of just throwing ever more ingredients into the ensuing synoptic stew as the flatter pattern that results with UKMO and GFS Op would bring.

     

    144 UKMO/GFSop/GFSp

    UN144-21.GIF?01-05gfsnh-0-144.pnggfsnh-0-144.png

     

    To illustrate the point here are GFSp 168/192 V GFS op 168/192

    gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-192.png

    gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-192.png

     

    Plenty of changes to come I'm sure but I hope ECM sticks with dropping the low cleanly S but without it deepening as it did with the 12z

    Edited by Mucka
    • Like 6
    • Thanks 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Sinker its looking like, knew as soon as i lowered my CET the models would flip mild

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Morning and happy new year. Looking so far this morning like a bit of weakening in the ridging to the west and a subtle change in fi to anything has wintry looking. Mabye a wobble but all will be revealed this weekend I guess. Still a decent cold shot but possibly not has prolonged has was previously expected. Onwards and upwards 🏃🏃🏃

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

    The way that low behaves next weekend is far from done and dusted plus even the Monday still cold out given the crap later run... I wouldn't worry yet

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...