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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    GFSp delivers the goods for all. Happy New year everyone...see you next year 🥂

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    Towards the end of the run looks like it's sniffing out the SSW.. The azores high shooting north... 

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    This really is a very disappointing temperature profile return on a regime like this for the first half of January

    image.thumb.png.17632635bb71d5f5b43fca355297d180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    By the 8th the GEFS are showing a decent interest in a fairly punchy northerly . Indeed some might say an 'arctic' northerly 😀. Not all of them look dramatic at face value (the coldest charts rarely do!).  

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Happy new year everybody my last blog for 2020. GFS not interested in Icelandic low 

    more from the south.Looks very good to me perhaps trying to drag slightly less cold 

    air up from the south but that’s far from certain.Generaly to end this year SSW will

    run the show the charts will struggle for some time yet a lot depends on reversal

    or split in polar vortex.what a great weather watch it has been and still so much 

    more to look forward too in the new year.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I am done with 2020,...good riddance,...see you all on the other side,going to spend the rest of what is left with my family to celebrate 2021

    night all and enjoy the rest of the Holidays and hopefulyl we start the new year on a very snowy one😏

                                                                                                           🍻HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE🍻

                                                                                                         3381769652021-happy-new-year-gif-animated-fireworks-white.thumb.gif.7671e67fe835cfbb1ffde195ef7bcecd.gif

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Just for fun at this stage but keep an eye on that low NE of Iceland...

    gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.bbfb7a148c749bb6db8479c9c1dceb20.png

     

    I think you highlighted this yesterday, good call. It's worth watching. On this occasion a near miss, but getting Europe to our immediate East colder from this is a pay-off worth having going forwards. (Other perts will be a direct hit!) Nothing bad about these charts, just variations on a theme. Going into the New Year plenty to be optimistic about.

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    Happy New Year all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Last one from me,...the gefs latest shows a slightly mild-er blip around the 7th then heads back down again,thats a plus from the earlier ens.

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    later's.

    @kumquat,yes i did and it is worth watching.

     

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    What have I missed? 

    Just heard there's going to be a SSW, and apparently there's some kind of virus been going around...

    Ok, poor taste and failed attempts at humour aside....

    Great model watching today. Pleasantly surprised. 

    My money is on UKMO and GFSP to be leading the pack, some great consistency in the later. 

    Anyone frustrated by ecm in FI, I suspect it's playing catch up. 

    Next week seems a potential upgrade already (well it hasn't happened yet, has it!?). 

    In reality, beyond 144? Who knows, and beyond that, roll the dice and sit back to see where the winds might blow. 

    Apologies and thoughts to anyone affected by covid, either directly or indirectly. I hope 2021 is kinder to you, and us all. 

    See you bright and early for the 00z....

    I've not had a drink since March 2007, so hopefully someone will have one or two for me tonight, please drink responsibly 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I keep on coming back ha! ha!

    day ten mean,...😮

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I keep on coming back ha! ha!

    day ten mean,...😮

    gensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.ccd3a40fb595b8c7d4f6d8478f69fd4c.pnggensnh-31-0-240.thumb.png.b1bbe92ac4986677a85e9c72db8077a8.png

    oh what joy to go into 2021

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Happy New Year all. I'm going to take a break. See you all in a year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, Griff said:

    What have I missed? 

    Just heard there's going to be a SSW, and apparently there's some kind of virus been going around...

    Ok, poor taste and failed attempts at humour aside....

    Great model watching today. Pleasantly surprised. 

    My money is on UKMO and GFSP to be leading the pack, some great consistency in the later. 

    Anyone frustrated by ecm in FI, I suspect it's playing catch up. 

    Next week seems a potential upgrade already (well it hasn't happened yet, has it!?). 

    In reality, beyond 144? Who knows, and beyond that, roll the dice and sit back to see where the winds might blow. 

    Apologies and thoughts to anyone affected by covid, either directly or indirectly. I hope 2021 is kinder to you, and us all. 

    See you bright and early for the 00z....

    I've not had a drink since March 2007, so hopefully someone will have one or two for me tonight, please drink responsibly 😜

    Oh @Griff,nice post mate and i will have plenty of🍻's on you,take care mate and happy new year😏

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    My final post of 2020 is this absolute stonker of a chart from p30 with a deep low sinking south across the country with -12C uppers giving blizzards to many. Ending a terrible year on a high, Happy New Year to everyone once again!👍😁

    1EB731C2-2A47-4BF9-B901-CB1128F90E49.thumb.png.9aeec41f00243a0b5433add8ac142c7e.png1EAA005F-421C-4DC0-8D44-CF4828E2D53C.thumb.png.0786d37eb699c338018cb2b6f2b5ad8f.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    Just now, Zak M said:

    Happy New Year all. I'm going to take a break. See you all in a year.

    In a year😮

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I wish everyone a very happy new year! All the best for 2021! 🥳 🥂

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ny-122.thumb.gif.b592cf7afc2fafe502155db581df8280.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Happy New year!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    53 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    This really is a very disappointing temperature profile return on a regime like this for the first half of January

    image.thumb.png.17632635bb71d5f5b43fca355297d180.png

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    Basically a competition in the past few days on the most wintry synoptics possible without widespread snowfall. Happy New Year everyone 🙂

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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