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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    My concern(on this run)is the med,there is some warm uppers down there.

     

    2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    My concern(on this run)is the med,there is some warm uppers down there.

    Agreed.. if this run verifies we have another DP and upper gate phase as the low is positioned that it scopes up Warner air into our easterly.,.

     

    image.thumb.png.ef31b0aaa54d0ffcc6df631980f3f2c6.png

     

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

     

    Agreed.. if this run verifies we have another DP and upper gate phase as the low is positioned that it scopes up Warner air into our easterly.,.

     

    image.thumb.png.ef31b0aaa54d0ffcc6df631980f3f2c6.png

     

    Uppers-gate or not, I know which run I'd like to verify best between this and EC 12z

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    We actually don’t do to bad from the east . We just miss the mild uppers and it stays cold 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

     

    Agreed.. if this run verifies we have another DP and upper gate phase as the low is positioned that it scopes up Warner air into our easterly.,.

     

    image.thumb.png.ef31b0aaa54d0ffcc6df631980f3f2c6.png

     

    Thankfully the low heads further SE to prevent that happening,but we don't want to see that gain traction in subsequent runs.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    Uppers-gate or not, I know which run I'd like to verify best between this and EC 12z

    Absolutely:) and 12 hours further into the run the low shifted further east and we are more appealing uppers and healthily upstream 

    image.thumb.png.25844ffb1f43686ce8b99dbe32893ae6.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Not much different to 12z evolution the Euro low backing east so that med feed is going to be cut off. As far as I’m concerned a good way to the end the year. 

    A10B0511-C347-4FC8-A179-527F57C3B451.thumb.png.8b3645c69bb5a31bf3273b5165f4ca1f.pngC99EAED8-23A7-4A21-97B5-F1EA9A9FD4BB.thumb.png.bcf96b1e8a540037240cff79b3519a2d.png
     

    Happy New Year all, it’s nice to be posting regularly in here again, I think last winter I barely posted at all testament to how awful it was. Here’s to a snowy 2021 in London it can only get better. 😄 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    So what made the difference on this 18z from gfs and the 12z ECM was it the lack of that low pressure between Iceland and Greenland that I noted had been dropped on the 18z?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    So what made the difference on this 18z from gfs and the 12z ECM was it the lack of that low pressure between Iceland and Greenland that I noted had been dropped on the 18z?

    The low drops and disrupts through the UK. On ECM it seems to get stuck and go back north which didn't look right. It could still be correct at that range though

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Consider how much differs between the 12z GFS, 12z ECM and 18z GFS.

    Really not worth worrying about just where the diving low later next week will go, how it will shape up etc - too many possibilities.

    Genuinely concerning would be if the broad-scale movement toward even more Arctic blocking with a focus on our side of the hemisphere was to lose support. Though even then there’d be some cause for skepticism given the SSW influence.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Snow over France moving towards us now,will it make it ..............

    It makes it 😁

    D997BDE8-69F5-4D72-88B1-CD573152F428.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    18 minutes ago, E17boy said:

    Hi Peeps 😊

    One last quick update, just watched the extended BBC weather for next week. Forcast also going for rain and sleet with snow on hills. Then next weekend a potent even colder northerly incoming all the way down the country. So still some interest later next week on the BBC.

    The presenter had this final messsge at the end - don't expect the first 10 days of 2021 to get any warmer.

    Happy new year again all

    stay safe best wishes

    regards 😊😊😊😊

    I suspect the words from the BBC forecasters tomorrow may hint at more of a wintry easterly than today's forecasters have given the marginal upgrades. 

    My only worry is high pressure is quite close so by the time the coldest uppers arrive, the easterly may not be as unstable as we would like, more so in NE England whilst the further south you are, there is more room for error in this regard. Highland Scotland could get down close to - 20 at night with high pressure parked right over Scotland. 

    The ECM run later on does show how it could go wrong, it will look different in the morning but whether trending on the same lines or not we shall see. That said, still some snowfall opportunities to be had. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
    18 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Models always seem to underplay and struggle with convective snowfall and streamers tbf.

    Living in the North East, I've very rarely, if ever seen a model get convective snowfall off the North sea right. Always underplayed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    As long as we have that Genoa low over Italy,...all is good and this run is very like the 12z in that respect and an even better run with those Atlantic height's

    gfsnh-0-246.thumb.png.37a822278ee614eb4d44d46dcf87c19f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
    4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    It makes it 😁

    D997BDE8-69F5-4D72-88B1-CD573152F428.png

    I know FI but how can it still be rain in the far southeast 

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    Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
    4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    It makes it 😁

    D997BDE8-69F5-4D72-88B1-CD573152F428.png

     

    Looking at the temperatures a lot of it look like being rain or sleet, despite the white on the model. Deja vu maybe? (like early next week)

    Still some things to be settled with this.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

    I know FI but how can it still be rain in the far southeast 

    Warm air mixed in. Also worth noting is that any snow over much of England turns to rain on the 6th.

    Colder run this but its still not all snow!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    Just now, TSNWK said:

    So what made the difference on this 18z from gfs and the 12z ECM was it the lack of that low pressure between Iceland and Greenland that I noted had been dropped on the 18z?

    As @CreweColdsaid pal we want the ridging up to Greenland to be as strong as possible to avoid the low dropping down through the U.K. phasing (joining) with the low on the US side of the Greenland ridge. This will ‘blow up’ the low over the U.K. and mix up the 850’s thus less snow, more windy and the low won’t sink SE into Europe to set up the snowy easterly...

    Even at 168 on the ECM the ridge is weaker and the writing’s on the wall....

    image.thumb.gif.a20c749df3e76f8314a6ead31aaf0105.gif

    The latest GFS brothers avoid this phasing and thus produce snowy day 8-10s.

    ECM has just flipped to the other side of the pack, the 0z represented the favourable outcome for cold seekers. Might be Saturday till we get more clarity on this one...

    FWIW this pattern keeps repeating this winter and so far we haven’t been able to fully link up heights over the top of the diving low and it’s tended to blow up. Hopefully 2021 brings us a change of fortunes in that regard....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Just for fun at this stage but keep an eye on that low NE of Iceland it could drag in a chunk of that pv our way...

    gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.bbfb7a148c749bb6db8479c9c1dceb20.png

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Solid 18z runs again tonight, they are definitely still edging closer towards being cold enough for snow inland and on any higher ground.

    They are still flattening out the Atlantic quite alot as a lobe of the PV is forced down towards the Greenland region which effectively flattens everything out. But that is an awful long way out still.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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