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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    Just now, Allseasons-si said:

    What!!!,...at 48 hrs😄

    In general. Most on here say take no notice ect.

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS upgrades the eastern cold pool T48 Also weakens the mediterranean 'finger'

    clearly see that for Mon night! much betta

    gfs-1-102.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    Regular GFS at 96.... 850s pushing -8 or -9 over centre of the country

     

    gfs-1-96.png

    I think this 850s saga is done!!!its edged  over to the ukmo all the way through!!what a chart!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Hit me with an even colder 72 hour chart from the normal op?😜

    Here you go Shaky😏

    gfs-1-72.thumb.png.5e1ca227714079a818d26822f97690db.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Last pub run of the year. Hope the GFS has been on the sauce! We need entertainment!

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    Surely no marginality with uppers @ around -8/9 ????? This run is stellar! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

    Surely no marginality with uppers @ around -8/9 ????? This run is stellar! 

    As long as there’s no pesky maritime layer in the flow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    @sheikhy is that a -10 850 over your house 🤣

    35784811-DA57-4BF4-8628-99B4B7FA856E.png

    @sheikhy's got his own snow blower so he will be creating his own cold pool😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    Plenty of snow showers piling in !!!! 💦💦💦

    1B0EF410-4037-4499-93EF-33CF72B2E338.png

    Washer streamer straight into leicester!!!!saw this coming after the ecm and ukmo this evening!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    My house in Coventry! 

    Lol 😂 definitely colder uppers early on . Good news 👍

    24A59C22-D668-49B0-87B7-A45D315671AF.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

    I bet my bottom dollar that the ecm is wrong after 192 hours!!it wont pan out like that!!!model of the day today goes to ukmo👊!!!2 things to look out for on 18z is continuation of the upgrade on the easterly and the greenland high between 144 and 216 hours with trough dropping south cleanly!!!!

    ECm is nearly always wrong in fl,and was a mild outlier at the end,surprise surpise looks like the bbc forecasts are also wrong showing rain all next week and temps of 6c,what models do they look at,

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Low between Greenland and Iceland has completely disappeared this run.. was that not going to be the trigger low.

    image.thumb.png.82098cd7b0c23f1988fa1a1237245a9a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Come on para drop that low!

    168

     

    gfsnh-0-168 (1).png

    I think I speak for most on here when I say this low is doing my head in. It really is toying with us. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    Lol 😂 definitely colder uppers early on . Good news 👍

    24A59C22-D668-49B0-87B7-A45D315671AF.png

    This is beyond an upgrade!!!it was showing 850s of -6 -7 its now -10 and only 100 hours away!!

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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