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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    If the ECM evolution plays out, I think it'll be one of the most drawn out let downs of the NW era. A true kick in the goolies.

    I can't even see a a quick route back to cold from D10, it would waste a few days of peak winter shuffling that pattern into something more conducive. Such fine margins on this and I wish that op run hadn't just happened.

    So just from one run Crewe would you say that outlook doesn't appear as good for cold prospective as before?I said it before we always seem to be chasing day 9/10 charts

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

    Anyone know if there is an 18z GFS this evening? A night off maybe?

    I have just checked,it usually starts at 21:30😳

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

    So just from one run Crewe would you say that outlook doesn't appear as good for cold prospective as before?I said it before we always seem to be chasing day 9/10 charts

    and like a Microsoft minute, day 9 never comes  😉 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, georgiedre said:

    Sorry mods This was posted on twitter and I think it relevant for the model thread but unsure if it has any credibility 

    Screenshot_20201231-202242_Chrome.jpg

    Not really mate it's all the wrong colours 😅

    Half way through a party but couldn't resist... Lovely UKMO and plenty to be excited about.. And just thought I would share these from Matt H on twitter... Its nearly 12 folks... Don't get going back on those New Year Resolutions... 😂

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    Eql8T-wW8AAWg9y.jpeg

    Eql8T-3XAAA5OSN.jpeg

    Eql8T-1XUAEPz_7.jpeg

    Eql8T-4WMAA9W99.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    We can’t enter 2021 until the pub run rolls out, a sign that 2020 is literally never going to end is it.😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    The gfs 18z is rolling now 👍

    Looks good...😍

    gfsnh-0-6.thumb.png.f638a0a174c5aabecdf22bd82a34a1e6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    The gfs 18z is rolling now 👍

    only upto +12

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The 18z gfs/p is running OK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    only upto +12

    Yer very slowly dribbling out . Must be an ice cold run coming 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

    The turd that is the CFS currently similar at 120z to other outputs but drops the trough to the north over us (again) and fills in situ, so no easterly.

    cfs-0-114.png

    cfs-0-240.png

    CFS is not designed as a model to accurately model the next few weeks.  The point is to let it run out into the far distance in order to spot any strong long run trends. It did pretty well with spotting the colder than normal synoptics for late December. Not to say it has Nostradamus like predictive abilities. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 minute ago, Trom said:

    CFS is not designed as a model to accurately model the next few weeks.  The point is to let it run out into the far distance in order to spot any strong long run trends. It did pretty well with spotting the colder than normal synoptics for late December. Not to say it has Nostradamus like predictive abilities. 

    Well you have a 1 monthly which must be a higher resolution (which this is taken from) than the 9 monthly which must be used for trends...I followed the 1 monthly in late Autumn and showed no such output for this December but largely +NAO

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS upgrades the eastern cold pool T48 Also weakens the mediterranean 'finger'

    Is it worth taking note of Steve?.

    The pub run. Nearly always fodder most say on here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    The para coming out first is not good for my OCD. Here is the 72 850 temps for the regular GFS. A little bit colder than the 12z run for same time.

     

    gfs-1-72 (1).png

    Was gona say the exact same thing🤣🤣!!prefer the normal op to come out first!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    slightly further South, hopefully trending towards UKMO, looks okay surely Sunday night for snaw?

    gfs-1-78.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, joggs said:

    Is it worth taking note of Steve?.

    The pub run. Nearly always fodder most say on here.

    What!!!,...at 48 hrs😄

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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