Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    The shortwave moving sw from Greenland is a problem. You don’t want that phasing with the shortwave in the mid Atlantic .

     

    Great minds Nick, need better seperation.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    On 29/12/2020 at 23:01, That ECM said:

    Completely agree. 12z NYE will be when we know I think. May as well watch those outputs as there is little else to do.😩😩

    Just put my shoulder blade out slapping myself on the back🤣🤣 They aren’t yet but getting there. Anyway Happy New Year to you all.😄😄😄 🍺🍺🍺 Keep the upgrades coming. And those worried about the extended from the meto. Apparently he didn’t know what to say and was due home 30 minutes previous.😄😄

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, keithlucky said:

    Next week  St Petersburg  temperatures-5 -6 -7c max so the baltic sea won't be unfrozen for long.

    My own St Petersburg 'Excitement Threshold' is nearer to -14C (7F?) -- but that's because I'm an oldy... I do wish the models would stop their current 'toing-and-froing'... It's doin' me 'ed in!😁

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

    T+216 well outside the reliable - not much point stressing  🙂

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The shortwave moving sw from Greenland is a problem. You don’t want that phasing with the shortwave in the mid Atlantic .

     

    absolutely spot on nick unfortunately they did combine with each other we are left with a less cold northwesterly

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    This mornings ECM run had a much better evolution. Here the shortwave deepens into a bowling ball low .  This is always the problem with deep cold hitting the warmer Atlantic .

    Luckily we have time for changes and it only starts going pear shaped at day 8.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    ECM 192>216 looks like a very strange evolution, why does it blow the LP up so much old school GFS low res style?

    Edited by Weathizard
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The jma is cleaner....

    JN192-21.thumb.gif.43d80f742a4320633600942f441cc8e9.gif

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    ECM had to sour things bowling ball dropping in...

    71E3497A-3067-4A4C-B05A-B14B4654473C.thumb.png.2f4f68b24dcd24a28aa028f4f6973de1.png

     

    It's playing catch up, I'm fairly certain the gfs or para have shown something similar within the last 48 hours, seems very familiar or I've had too many quality street... 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    The evolution looks strange from 168 to 192, what prevents the low from dropping. It almost appears to move north again?

    The one big issue with the PV being as fragmented as it is is that we always run the risk of having stray bowling ball lobes of PV end up in a poor location. The 12z ECM is almost at that position with a couple of very weak fragments sitting is just about the worst possible location.

    We may just about get away with it on this 12z ECM, as the LP does at least drift SE somewhat which means we have a lesser risk of eveything just folding on us rapidly from 216hrs.

    But its a risk ,make no mistake about it.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Not the best at 192 hours!!at least upgraded earlier!!west based nao incoming on ecm maybe!

     

    Calm down buddy snow fest dropping in. 

     

    image.thumb.png.d160969f14578883bf9c4480c458aaec.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    This mornings ECM run had a much better evolution. Here the shortwave deepens into a bowling ball low .  This is always the problem with deep cold hitting the warmer Atlantic .

    Luckily we have time for changes and it only starts going pear shaped at day 8.

    It's actually D6 Nick...that low is dropping further E than the GFS- We want the heights in the Atlantic to be backed further W as they hold that ESB LP further W too and allow more heights to gain sufficient latitude across W Greenland

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    12z ECM shows at 240hrs what would have happened on the 00z runs had the trigger low not gotten as far SE as it did. Its a fine line between a cold snowy set-up, and what the 12z ECM shows which is something that may stillbe good for the north, but less so further south,

    Also, its not without support from the GFS ensembles either...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    It's actually quite a dicey chart- need more heights pushing up past the W of Greenland, otherwise the troughing will merge with the low coming off the ESB and heights will rise to our SW with the jet riding over the top.

    Especially for your left goolie, I'd imagine!✂️

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    As soon as it’s cold enough on Tuesday...it’s dry 🤣

    BA6B1239-2011-4D61-B6D4-A91759CA18D7.jpeg

    Said this earlier to bluearmy!!very hard to get both cold and snow for some reason!!milder air more moisture colder air less moisture!!high further south means colder but less precipitation!!high further north more precipitation but milder air with it!!lose lose situation mate!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-11 10:03:58 Valid: 11/05/2021 0600 - 12/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 11TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Rinse and Repeat as the showery spell continues

      No sign of any fine, warm weather over the next few days, as low pressure stays well in charge with sunshine and heavy downpours the norm every day. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-10 10:08:21 Valid: 10/05/2021 0600 - 11/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 10TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 1
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...