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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    That evolution in regards to the uppers between 72 and 96 hours doesnt look right to me!!flick through it guys and am telling you the uppers should have been colder especially with what happenrd at 120 hours🤔

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  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    I really think this upcoming easterly is a starter course. It's part of a continued pattern producing largely the same outcome. For the most part uppers of -6C would be marginal below 275-325m, under this altitude -6C uppers would produce surface temps of 2/3C so largely dependent on precip intensity / nocturnal cooling.

    Uppers of -7/-8 would produce snow to city level which is modelled to occur for a short period with increasing support.

    This support for colder uppers occurring as the time frame of 4th-6th Jan comes into the high resolution time frame in which modelling of cold wave development in flows is done much better. I.e., a better grip of short term effects.

    Hi buddy what we saying 1c is worth in uppers then - 150-200M - thats what I gave it.

    GFS had a surface freezing level of 100-150M in -8c air the other day ( forecast ) & 575M ish in -5.5 Air

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The ECM,UKMO and gfs at 144

    ECH1-144.thumb.gif.b567a556d368b767e565738559d21251.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.3f6d83c7211286ae51f64691314234b8.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.7c87728fff97abc297348aeb8a1f84f8.png

    pretty good agreement really,now we need the next phase nailed on,how will this trough drop down from the north?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T144 ... moving air masses:

    3600DA7B-66AF-47F3-90C9-2C6E60C68508.thumb.jpeg.6bb2649c49b2d9dcd18b66f83d810284.jpeg

    I do love these periods of rare synoptics when you wonder what exactly is going to happen next!

    Beats relentless Winter zonality for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    That evolution in regards to the uppers between 72 and 96 hours doesnt look right to me!!flick through it guys and am telling you the uppers should have been colder especially with what happenrd at 120 hours🤔

    setup is further south, like UKMO, colder uppers from north by Tues, wanna see this on 18Z GFS

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    YES!!!! Smashing refresh on those precip type charts.....if it shows rain with those uppers and DPs the phone is going out the window and I’m taking up train spotting ! 

    It's the maritime layer that's causing the issue. SSTs. So whilst the uppers are snow conducive, it's milder from 0m to 300m. The mild layer is modelled to be mixed out with uppers below -8C, which would negate the maritime layer & produce snow at 0m asl. The maritime layer is also mixed out inlandwards, so >15 miles inland and uppers of -6.5 may be ample for snow. So, near the coast or at city level, -8 or heavy precip is required in this set up.

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    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The ECM,UKMO and gfs at 144

    ECH1-144.thumb.gif.b567a556d368b767e565738559d21251.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.3f6d83c7211286ae51f64691314234b8.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.7c87728fff97abc297348aeb8a1f84f8.png

    pretty good agreement really,now we need the next phase nailed on,how will this trough drop down from the north?

    All of them also showing hints of the Russian high retrogressing 👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    YES!!!! Smashing refresh on those precip type charts.....if it shows rain with those uppers and DPs the phone is going out the window and I’m taking up train spotting ! 

    They’re not consistently supportive but it’s a start from all rain, hints of Kent streamer Tuesday night.

    CF1F4C9F-D73D-4908-944F-170F056D72C1.thumb.png.4620167215f691f8648e2c9c86ac0b02.pngAAB5E8FB-FF3B-4EBB-8B21-89B5D26F5DC8.thumb.png.b92791f9efe1a41a8e1ac578e9080620.png90E4C38D-7B0B-439C-AF3F-78E80C4BE7F9.thumb.png.5ca8429442cda6d808798c99a037b159.png

     

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The ECM,UKMO and gfs at 144

    ECH1-144.thumb.gif.b567a556d368b767e565738559d21251.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.3f6d83c7211286ae51f64691314234b8.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.7c87728fff97abc297348aeb8a1f84f8.png

    pretty good agreement really,now we need the next phase nailed on,how will this trough drop down from the north?

    lets hope they verify @ 96 

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Hi buddy what we saying 1c is worth in uppers then - 150-200M - thats what I gave it.

    GFS had a surface freezing level of 100-150M in -8c air the other day ( forecast ) & 575M ish in -5.5 Air

    Time for Boom!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    image.thumb.gif.d6f6d714c487d80b3e3b169e68fb4278.gif
     

    t168 Armaggeddon incoming....Is THIS the Winter of Discontent 

    BFTP

     

     

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  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Griff said:

    JFF don't know whether to laugh or cry... 

    gfsnh-1-354.png

    Comedy dragon? 

    354 hours away - who cares!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ECM at 192👍

    ECH1-192.thumb.gif.ac2b55704fae8bd385af6a4704c35553.gifECH0-192.thumb.gif.d8217d2d7ee6d201178ac9714e19bce5.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    image.thumb.gif.d6f6d714c487d80b3e3b169e68fb4278.gif
     

    t168 Armaggeddon incoming....Is THIS the Winter of Discontent 

    BFTP

    The second WoD in the space of only three years? :drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    23 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I think I've found why we're having so much trouble getting snow modelled on an easterly - check out the SST anomalies over the Baltics - 3 or 4C above normal, and no ice cover. 

    WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV

    The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). NESDIS is part of the National Oceanic and...

    Trace most of the windflows for next week and they come straight over not only the North Sea but the Baltics also. 

    ARPEGE gives snow throughout Germany/Poland early next week except on north coasts, so no probs with dew points if winds come from there.

    Study ensembles with less Baltic influence and I bet they'll have better dew points.

    Next week  St Petersburg  temperatures-5 -6 -7c max so the baltic sea won't be unfrozen for long.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    Nice 😍

    1AD161F6-E62E-4E41-8A2E-27F7BE9B0C31.png

    8479F5FF-5067-4F15-AE8E-C62F73A4160C.png

    It's actually quite a dicey chart- need more heights pushing up past the W of Greenland, otherwise the troughing will merge with the low coming off the ESB and heights will rise to our SW with the jet riding over the top.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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