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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    That will do ECM plenty cold enough. As Steve Murr points out just a slight tweak makes all the difference. Back before 2009 in the old bbc snow watch forum days we would of killed for a chart like this 

    28C60F33-FFDA-4E30-A624-B25127195964.png

    Edited by seabreeze86
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    By Tuesday we have -9 uppers!!! Surely some snow from that?! Can you post the DP for t120 Daniel ? 🙏

    DBDB9D44-C393-42C7-B776-E492B50A82E2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    24 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Anyone seen perturbation 26?

    gens-26-1-216.thumb.png.aadba334b9bcb669a665da9eea35fb77.png   gens-26-0-216.thumb.png.8253a86a66a85ee746305203f4e955db.png

    -15/-16c 850s for the majority of the country at day 10. Absolutely ridiculous chart.

    The most accurate perturbation on average...apparently

     BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    ECM is going to be special after 168 based on this 120 chart!

    Look at the pressure rise into Greenland

     

    ECMOPEU12_120_1 (3).png

    Aye, towards UKMO, cold by Tues after Monday hiccup

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ECM and UKMO...

    ECH1-120.thumb.gif.63b2b10fbd5f3386b191b05897437bfc.gifUN120-21.thumb.gif.45ebc14ab3eb407e39f7253ebea5ba42.gif

    very similar but i would say the ECM is slightly better with the height's S Greenland.

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Absolute filth !!! 😍 

    praying for a 1-2c drop on the DPs from the ECM for the first half of next week. I’ll either be posting snow charts in 40 mins or I’ll just stay quiet and sulk in private tonight 🤣

    I’ll be interested to see if BA will be letting us down gently tonight!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    image.thumb.gif.87905d59fbab2e81b4c205a250af9119.gif
    t120....bye bye marginals....freezing with ENE wind

     

    BFTP

    Yes indeed, looks coldest of the lot on this run

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    I really think this upcoming easterly is a starter course. It's part of a continued pattern producing largely the same outcome. For the most part uppers of -6C would be marginal below 275-325m, under this altitude -6C uppers would produce surface temps of 2/3C so largely dependent on precip intensity / nocturnal cooling.

    Uppers of -7/-8 would produce snow to city level which is modelled to occur for a short period with increasing support.

    This support for colder uppers occurring as the time frame of 4th-6th Jan comes into the high resolution time frame in which modelling of cold wave development in flows is done much better. I.e., a better grip of short term effects.

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Jesus where did that freezing 120 hour chart come from!!!!💦💦

    Oadby buried with that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    144 > 120 upper air trending from day 5 to 4

    Down to -9c now > much better... 😍😍

    6D82BE29-1EFB-4FD0-8B75-52F2982259EF.thumb.png.16fc18cac8b60586b2787673bdca5e5e.pngCA78ACE9-534A-487F-B8FE-75302501A77A.thumb.png.ae0bf01afc2e8104a2806cd8a47af31a.png

    Backtrack complete steve!!!i stil dont understand how it looks so rubbish at 96 hours and then at 120 hours boooom!!!!!but as you say it gone to ukmo at 72 hours so ukmo won this one!

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

    T+144

    UKMO image.thumb.png.642232a5e7e016a96a777bb16dee257f.png

    ECM image.thumb.png.8fc600d1b9d94dbe2ebfff863498d50a.png

     

    image.png

    image.png

    Edited by Notty
    Removed extra images
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Would that slacker flow towards the South/east atleast mean less mild air drawn up from the Med in the ENE flow than UKMO?

    Yes, probably, but as my posts have probably shown, I am a big picture man, not a details man!  

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    By Tuesday we have -9 uppers!!! Surely some snow from that?! Can you post the DP for t120 Daniel ? 🙏

    DBDB9D44-C393-42C7-B776-E492B50A82E2.png

    They improve greatly through Tuesday much much better for snowfall further SE. 

    FDAF98C5-FB00-4E50-9BFC-D619D0910FFA.thumb.png.92793029024ebc9d9c7841e11ac6e3e9.png88DC0A4E-73A6-46FB-A1E8-9F863D716F9A.thumb.png.38adaeb727ff7a8153347620d311e2b0.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    They improve greatly through Tuesday much much better for snowfall further SE. 

    FDAF98C5-FB00-4E50-9BFC-D619D0910FFA.thumb.png.92793029024ebc9d9c7841e11ac6e3e9.png88DC0A4E-73A6-46FB-A1E8-9F863D716F9A.thumb.png.38adaeb727ff7a8153347620d311e2b0.png

     

    YES!!!! Smashing refresh on those precip type charts.....if it shows rain with those uppers and DPs the phone is going out the window and I’m taking up train spotting ! 

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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