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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Anyone seen perturbation 26?

    gens-26-1-216.thumb.png.aadba334b9bcb669a665da9eea35fb77.png   gens-26-0-216.thumb.png.8253a86a66a85ee746305203f4e955db.png

    -15/-16c 850s for the majority of the country at day 10. Absolutely ridiculous chart.

    @feb1991blizzardwill love that cobra purb 🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Anyone seen perturbation 26?

    gens-26-1-216.thumb.png.aadba334b9bcb669a665da9eea35fb77.png   gens-26-0-216.thumb.png.8253a86a66a85ee746305203f4e955db.png

    -15/-16c 850s for the majority of the country at day 10. Absolutely ridiculous chart.

    Absolute filth !!! 😍 

    praying for a 1-2c drop on the DPs from the ECM for the first half of next week. I’ll either be posting snow charts in 40 mins or I’ll just stay quiet and sulk in private tonight 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Notty said:

    ECM is rolling 😀

    hopefully towards GEM/UKMO

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    hopefully towards GEM/UKMO

    Well 72 hours is coming out in the next few seconds!!!if we get a whole load of posts then you know its finally caught on!!if not then you.know its gone tits up again lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    @feb1991blizzardwill love that cobra purb 🥶

    Its also very unusual from a Northerly to get those uppers over Southern UK - might be quite dry in Central parts due to wishbone effect which is at its strongest at this time of year, but i am guessing there might be clear skies also, so you would be looking at an extreme frost.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    The upcoming pattern 160-240h is another wave break, one of a round of many. This wave break is modified with an easterly component due to the strong signal for amplification.

    As amplification occurs & the wave is broken, the trough energy is shunted south east and breaks the ridging across the UK at 160h. The trough energy is then pushed south east & adds to the Europen cold pool in the process of trough disruption. The trend for increasimg blocking assures that this secondary wave of polar injection takes on an increasingly easterly basis. This produces increasingly wintry surface conditions in the UK.

    A completely logical situation & GEM today is very clean with this evolution.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

    T+96

    UK Met 12z - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Météociel propose le modèle UKMO à maille moyenne (1.25 degrés) jusqu'à 144h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures à tous les niveaux

     

    ECM 12z - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

     

    Looking Good 🙂

    Edited by Notty
    Repaired links (I hope)
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

    So in this outcome modelled with reasonable confidence, expect increasingly abnormal surface conditions to develop.

    Sorry mate but what does "increasingly abnormal surface conditions" mean?

    Edited by AWD
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    1 minute ago, Notty said:

    T+96

    UK Met 12z - 

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Météociel propose le modèle UKMO à maille moyenne (1.25 degrés) jusqu'à 144h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures à tous les niveaux

     

    ECK 12z - 

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

     

    Looking Good 🙂

    The links are broken 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    1 minute ago, AWD said:

    Sorry mate but what does "increasingly abnormal surface conditions" mean?

    Quick sand and sinking mud 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Howie said:

    The links are broken 

    Hopefully repaired now thanks 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    maybe wrong but monday looks pants away from the north? wet Staffordshire, snowy Scotland

    ECM0-96.GIF?31-0

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Upper seem a bit higher at -5 rather than -7 at t96 but perhaps we would sacrifice that if it mean lower DP? Will have to wait a bit longer for that detail 

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM and UKMO very similar at T96:

    121832F0-63E8-4F6B-94EB-ACAFC341E555.thumb.png.267a1f91bfc3fa71870d3c8bd25cb710.pngD15F5403-FD3C-4A48-B66D-DD8F84A932A1.thumb.gif.c2d2e4eeb00d45fbb1f9af2bfe30a132.gif

    Would that slacker flow towards the South/east atleast mean less mild air drawn up from the Med in the ENE flow than UKMO?

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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