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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough

    dorset , 

     

    sorry not sure where you got those temperatures from but they are wrong , been watching the weather for four decades and those numbers are wrong , usually the north sea changes slowly month to month and not as quick as you show , but thanks for the info 

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    GFS moves towards UKMO early on then eventually loses the plot in la la land. I await the ECM with interest.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Unusual to see GFS, GEM and ECM looking so similar at day 10 (and in a good way!!). 

    If were looking at that set up in 10 days time it would potentially be a lot colder than the current 'Mouse from the Med' easterly 😀.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yes UKMO still all kinky at 72 ☃️🎄☃️

    Steve that means we will find out on the t72 chart whether ecm follows ukmo or not?love the close up charts you do with the circles to point out the differences mate!!to the naked eye and at a quick glance you would think ecm and ukmo look the same!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland
    1 minute ago, Doctor96 said:

    dorset , 

     

    sorry not sure where you got those temperatures from but they are wrong , been watching the weather for four decades and those numbers are wrong , usually the north sea changes slowly month to month and not as quick as you show , but thanks for the info 

    The temperature I quoted is just offshore I presumed and I got it from the web

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    12 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    Is the north sea colder than it should be at this time of year .below is the forecast for mid January and it shows the middle of north sea 6 C . I am sure this is 1-2C colder than our normal years and will have an effect on the est coast  marginal areas .

    758156813_Northseatempmidjan.thumb.JPG.70fad0c01628c7e385bc0fd21d553a8e.JPG

    Sea surface temperatures are well in to single figures (7 - 9  C) and this equates to 1.5° C - 2.5° C above normal:

    image.thumb.png.fb9775e30aa54edf36992ce856a6fd5b.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    JFF don't know whether to laugh or cry... 

    gfsnh-1-354.png

    Comedy dragon? 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    I think that would be cold enough for snow if the lows slides under🤪

    image.thumb.png.07a63b1c7aa36077af47eac516e49618.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

     

    West based NAO Summary

    * Is usually poor for the UK because the cold air usually filters SSW west of Iceland towards the azores & this is where the low pressure settles - as a result this encourages high pressure over France & warm SW Winds over England... 

    This situation usually manifiests it 'worse' when we go straight to a WNAO from the standard westerly pattern > its a worse case scenario.

    * WNAO from a strong ENAO is fine.

    This is because before the high transitions west from the core over Greenland it will nearly always leave residual over heights to our South & crucially east > as well as a node of high pressure over Scandi-

    As a result of this the normal low swinging south out of iceland will be butting into continental cold from the East so the WNAO is negated. - It can be a snow maker.

    Par example from the GEFS

    EFC68224-AFD3-42C5-AA09-E59C0E37945C.thumb.png.cf356bcd1ef56b2242877ded984a3775.png657E53ED-064D-4BE9-BCF9-AE904B428EA3.thumb.png.e3df20b3653242bc784254020d2408db.png

    The only time the SE can get snow from a sliding south as cold air is ahead of the front...

    It ls worth highlighting again that in 50 - 60 years of archive reviewing the 'classic' <0c CET months have multiple repetitive cycles like this within 4 weeks to keep the UK cold.

    To get a shot like 1963 you need about 10 cycles over 8-10 weeks. We are at number 1.

     

    This is surely an equally distributed profile of -NAO pressure?

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    10 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    Is the north sea colder than it should be at this time of year .below is the forecast for mid January and it shows the middle of north sea 6 C . I am sure this is 1-2C colder than our normal years and will have an effect on the est coast  marginal areas .

    Coastal areas of Eastern England are currently slightly above normal and presently dropping by approx 0.2c a day. Hartlepool 7.5c, Scarborough 8c, Grimsby 6.2c,  Cromer 7c Lowestoft 7.2c, Clacton 7.1c - biggest anomalies in the North Sea are over towards the Dutch side. Central North Sea is slightly warmer than normal by a degree or so but not excessive. Biggest problems as mentioned are the 850's and DP's.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough

    optimus , thanks but that is pre 2000 figures , honestly we are much colder in north sea than anytime i can recall since 2000.  With the up comming easterly  , i think the usual wet snow on east coast may be less marginal in later January as north sea is much colder. 

     

    usually an easterly never gives us east coast snow in the north until february  , lets see what SSW comes and the effect may be superb for the east 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    14 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Happy New year.... 😂 

    gfsnh-0-324 (1).png

    gfsnh-1-324.png

    That's what we need a higher latitude Russian HP...GFS 12z still rather sucking towards us low latitude easterlies, that would be cold on the GFSp but too far ahead to take seriously.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    It ls worth highlighting again that in 50 - 60 years of archive reviewing the 'classic' <0c CET months have multiple repetitive cycles like this within 4 weeks to keep the UK cold.

    To get a shot like 1963 you need about 10 cycles over 8-10 weeks. We are at number 1.

     

    That is crucial to understand about severe winters. It is never a pattern set in stone for weeks on end, it is waxing and waning constantly.

    The raging vortex usually limits (or ends)  the number of cycles, but this year our hope is that Weak Vortex+Great pattern+SSW will let these cycles continue...
    We'll see!

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands, 161m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All the Interesting stuff
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands, 161m ASL
    26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Genuine question, all this talk of a west-based -NAO, can anyone post a chart of when we last had one, a proper one?  

    Because I don’t think it is relevant to the current evolution, yes the blocking might be west, but for it to be a bad setup for UK, it would need a substantial low to be even further SW, no?

    Is this west Based?👀

    Screenshot 2020-12-31 at 17.33.08.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    16 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

    Why are people picking out 384 hr charts and stating them as fact that the cold won’t be happening! 
     

    There is so much to play for in the short term!!!! Just enjoy and stop looking for the end before it starts!!

    Absolutely...does anyone know what’s happening on the 5th January or what!!! 🥴....well hopefully regarding SSW anyway 🥴🤞🤞🤞

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    The turd that is the CFS currently similar at 120z to other outputs but drops the trough to the north over us (again) and fills in situ, so no easterly.

    cfs-0-114.png

    cfs-0-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    17 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    I think that would be cold enough for snow if the lows slides under🤪

    image.thumb.png.07a63b1c7aa36077af47eac516e49618.png

     

    Never seen so much white since Meteociel introduced it on their charts a couple of years ago, but...where’s the other testicle?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Galashiels
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather in winter
  • Location: Galashiels
    8 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    That is crucial to understand about severe winters. It is never a pattern set in stone for weeks on end, it is waxing and waning constantly.

    The raging vortex usually limits (or ends)  the number of cycles, but this year our hope is that Weak Vortex+Great pattern+SSW will let these cycles continue...
    We'll see!

    I believe multiple repetitive cycles are a pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    11 minutes ago, phil b said:

    Is this west Based?👀

    Screenshot 2020-12-31 at 17.33.08.png

    Maybe for the high, but the key thing is the low pressure system propping up such a high,  and there isn’t one.  This is my point.  The highs can go as far west as they like at the moment...there is no energy underneath.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    9 minutes ago, phil b said:

    Is this west Based?👀

    Screenshot 2020-12-31 at 17.33.08.png

     

    yes with the UK sitting ( just ) on the cold side of the trough ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    12 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    optimus , thanks but that is pre 2000 figures , honestly we are much colder in north sea than anytime i can recall since 2000.  With the up comming easterly  , i think the usual wet snow on east coast may be less marginal in later January as north sea is much colder. 

     

    usually an easterly never gives us east coast snow in the north until february  , lets see what SSW comes and the effect may be superb for the east 

     

    This discussion is in danger of derailing the thread, but as easterlies off the North Sea are in the forecast, maybe worth trying to pin the answer down. From the two sites I use the North Sea temps are currently above long-term average. First the Met Office:

    SST 1755825163_SSTMetOff.thumb.jpg.8cda778d849237aa29b754938dd8d341.jpg Anomaly 244724731_SSTAnomMetOff.thumb.jpg.f98a0ba9ef27b0b21dba4a045e595fe9.jpg

    Source: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.gov.uk/ostia-website/sstbrowser.html

    Next from Surf Forecast.com:

    SST 186245441_SSTUnitedKingdom.thumb.jpg.70b6e8c44e1a656d1ebfe51825cdc07b.jpg Anomaly 2013068588_SSTUnitedKingdom.sstanomaly.thumb.jpg.6deba2939cd6b31c7baeb8be3ebfd989.jpg

    Source: https://www.surf-forecast.com/current-maps/United-Kingdom/sea-surface-temperatures

    Maybe you could tell us the source of your info as it looks incorrect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
    2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Good post Andy...

     

    I will always remember the reconstructed charts shown that book  reviewing  the coldest winter in hundreds of years.  (think the one I mainly phantisize about was for 1689?? clearly a reconstruction), when temperatures were kept between -15C - 18C for a whole day in an easterly severe gale, in the SE of England.

    The chart was I thought impossible to ever reproduce.

    It showed high pressure over Siberia stretching thru Scandy to Greenland. Low pressure was lined up from the Azores thru the Med to Turkey. Can we get somewhere near that, whilst I am still alive? 

    It is my one wish... thou I do worry about the social impacts of such a thing!!

    MIA

     

     

    24 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    I think that would be cold enough for snow if the lows slides under🤪

    image.thumb.png.07a63b1c7aa36077af47eac516e49618.png

     

    Hey....

    Just stop this now.

    It is 7/8 of the way to my fantasy.  (spelt correctly!)

    You cannot destroy it.... otherwise I will have nothing to live for!! 🤪😛😛

    MIA

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Ensembles show we are on for further snow chasing for at least the next 10 days. A few very cold runs showing now as well 👍🏻

    6549F1A6-D276-4980-B9F0-5D063DDCC74C.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    To find out whether the neg NAO is west based or east based do the following. Take the mean 500mb height value for Southern Greenland from the mean value for the Azores & an area about 200 miles west of Azores to derive value 1. Do the same between midway point Iceland/Scandi and north Iberia to Italy for value 2. Take value 1 from value 2. 

    A high value = west based -NAO tendency and vice versa. 

    Apply this to this frame & it's -44 = central based / slightly east based so whilst there is a -NAO signature out west it also has a significant east component. Bit technical but thought this would be of interest.

    gfs-0-234 (4).png

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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