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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GEM T198, who knows that this would do, amazing:

    E0406136-8686-4A47-ADEA-DFE6345ABBD3.thumb.png.d33f745d0023fa7d3882726ae9eccb80.png7DFDD109-459A-4372-951B-9EE26BB775B6.thumb.png.1d2961eb243caf8615df4bd3eead1414.png

    But look at the vortex across the globe too, absolutely mangled beyond repair!

    👀 Looks like GFSP at 204

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    That GFS-p NH chart, take a line right round the globe at the same latitude as the U.K. and pressure isn’t less than 1000mb anywhere, in the middle of winter !

    Edited by JoeShmoe
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    Just now, Geordiesnow said:

    Really good UKMO run and with more of a NE'ly  flow than an easterly, there be less modification from the north sea for inland locations.

    My only concern are thicknesses low enough to support strong convection? Remember it's not just about cold air over warm sea mean snow, I remember an easterly in 2013 I think which was -10 in uppers but it bought alot of stratuscumulus image.thumb.png.05a80d1dce7fd298f7af29b6ed1730a3.pngwith shallow convection. 

    Either way, hopefully the ECM can upgrade, it does tend to have more conservative uppers but it could be crucial between whether the easterly will be wet or white.

    All depends on location as the Easterly in 2013 brought this to West Yorkshire but was a long fetch draw. 

    Next weeks is naff but later its looks like we could get lucky.

    image.thumb.png.1c84560d906f3d87f2532b5ce38bd6ff.png

     

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Gem icon going their own way 168 hrs onwards.Fancy GFS following more ECM scenario 

    from 168 hrs we shall see when 12z ECM comes out,but to my eye the word easterly beginning 

    to look a good bet already cold welcome very cold /bitter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Edging ever closer to snow becoming a possibility from the easterly, though it's very marginal still and I'd imagine for now still somewhat reserved for inland and higher ground.

    Some great runs again, though I note still many solutions out there in terms of how it may evolve, not all are great. 

    Beyond that and ear signs of very west based -ve NAO, so west based it probably no longer technically fits a -ve NAO at all. Down the line if we do get that evolution we may well need to watch for an upper high nearby getting sucked into a scandi high. But we'd have a high chance of some SW grot first.

    However that really is in deep lalaland 

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk
  • Weather Preferences: Winter spring autumn
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk

    Momentum is building from the north and east and the purple blob wants to sit over ourside of the hemisphere for a change!!🤪

    Edited by Gregulator
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Genuine question, all this talk of a west-based -NAO, can anyone post a chart of when we last had one, a proper one?  

    Because I don’t think it is relevant to the current evolution, yes the blocking might be west, but for it to be a bad setup for UK, it would need a substantial low to be even further SW, no?

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    Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough

    Is the north sea colder than it should be at this time of year .below is the forecast for mid January and it shows the middle of north sea 6 C . I am sure this is 1-2C colder than our normal years and will have an effect on the est coast  marginal areas .

    758156813_Northseatempmidjan.thumb.JPG.70fad0c01628c7e385bc0fd21d553a8e.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    41 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I tell you what, I'm loving these west based NAO at the moment!

    @Steve MurrMurr

     

    gfsnh-0-210.png

     

    20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    There is a post in the tweet thread where Simon Lee muses about just how far  west based the neg NAO is setting up and how much Atlantic there is to the east ......the 12z gfs op manages to fit a ridge and the sceuro trough in to keep us cold and the sou’wester towards Iceland !  Mind you, the neg nao disappears by T300 ! 

     

    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Genuine question, all this talk of a west-based -NAO, can anyone post a chart of when we last had one, a proper one?  

    Because I don’t think it is relevant to the current evolution, yes the blocking might be west, but for it to be a bad setup for UK, it would need a substantial low to be even further SW, no?

    I suspect the answer will become apparent soon enough, at the moment though some stunning model watching! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    .It means less risk of warm sectors being too much, though the south may walk on a tightrope for a time

     

    For the south we have yet to get on board this winter so far, as you say tight rope, and I'm still seeing that even with the current changes in the shorter term..

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Crying with envy... 😜

    gfseu-1-300.png

    That looks very much like a cold dive into Europe rather than Western Europe as suggested by a lot folks given the models..

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    And in thirteen  ????.

    image.thumb.png.c78348e0899dd2352f6179fcfe62222c.png

    Matron

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    5 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    Is the north sea colder than it should be at this time of year .below is the forecast for mid January and it shows the middle of north sea 6 C . I am sure this is 1-2C colder than our normal years and will have an effect on the est coast  marginal areas .

    758156813_Northseatempmidjan.thumb.JPG.70fad0c01628c7e385bc0fd21d553a8e.JPG

    Ah no..

    image.thumb.png.d3f560736570d6130dc5d4feb97d2934.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

    That looks very much like a cold dive into Europe rather than Western Europe as suggested by a lot folks given the models..

    Happy New year.... 😂 

    gfsnh-0-324 (1).png

    gfsnh-1-324.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    Just now, Dorsetbred said:

    Ah no.. I suspect not

    image.thumb.png.d3f560736570d6130dc5d4feb97d2934.png

    However with the change in direction of the possible incoming, the cooler the better..

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.507fa1799c35ffb8a3f38c911064da25.png image.thumb.png.3faabc6bc64b390c29d349471d879205.png image.thumb.png.3b47051bc332623c7e8e1118a7eb2300.png

    Seems we can't discount the further east low drop yet.

    This parallel GFS run then has a suspiciously strong push from the west but still finds a 'slider low' outcome against bitterly cold air to the east.

    I think that says a lot about the forcing at play for mid-Jan.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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