Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Battleground Snow]

I tell you what, I'm loving these west based NAO at the moment!

@Steve MurrMurr

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Eskimo said:

Ah yes, hovered over the wrong frame 

Nevertheless, 12z follows the same theme of prolonging the cold. 

Done that many a time lol

yes the 12z are an upgrade in terms of synoptic and uppers and not in fl either,i am happy

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Done that many a time lol

yes the 12z are an upgrade in terms of synoptic and uppers and not in fl either,i am happy

looked at the 12z that low coming out of Greenland makes all the difference, Fi looks really great

[Battleground Snow]

Gem has improved uppers too, not as good as ukmo, but I'd expect the ECM to look similar later as it slowly catches up

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Talk about being locked in a cold spell,the 12z just keeps on getting better...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GEM sill good too, nearer UKMO than GFS

[Premiere Neige]

26 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

So weird that the nearest sub -10c uppers to the east are in Mongolia !

UKMO at 144 has an area of -12's over western Russia...

[Griff]

Para

 

[Ice Day]

GFSP at 192 is showing something different.  Still looks great though!

 

Meanwhile the GFS is churning out mad charts at 252

We are well into FI now so fine details are irrelevant, but we are seeing a drain of cold away from North America.

 

[keithlucky]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

When was the last time we had a sustained period of below average temperatures, i.e. 2+ weeks? 2010? Whilst it's not brutally cold, it will certain be well below average for a while yet according to the GFS.

 

March 2018 last time we had a strat warming that gave us bitter east winds.

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Talk about being locked in a cold spell,the 12z just keeps on getting better...

GFS does not yet have a very strong connection between heights over Iceland and Scandi/Russia. It's close to ECM 0Z, but I think the ECM version is more likely, considering how Scandi heights develop. Anyone who witnessed Scandi Highs in the past knows that they can develop fast!

[shunthebartlett92]

Some of these charts are the pinnacle of a negative NAO, a series of low pressures draped across the mid atlantic towards the continent and a sublime greenland and potential scandi high developing. Love it!

[Daniel*]

A lot of downbeat talk today but it seems to me we’re on the cusp of an actual cold spell the easterly in first half of week pales in comparison. Things look very positive indeed for coldies. The milder weather keeps getting pushed back...

[Chertseystreamer79]

25 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Looking good gang,I had a feeling the 12s might start looking good..Trust me things will get better and better in the coming days.

I'm going to do something I've not done all Xmas now,namely take a few hours away from the models,and do something I've not done since last New Year...have a blooming good drink.

So I would like to say to all the Netwaether crew...young and old.. 

Heres to a bright New Year and a fond farewell to the old...

Heres to the things that are yet to come,and to the memories that we hold.

May you have a prosperous New Year,wishing you a Happy Healthy New Year.

May the New Year bless you with Health,wealth and Happiness.

And a few nice frigid ensembles to boot...take care all.

See ya for the 18z...

[Geordiesnow]

Really good UKMO run and with more of a NE'ly  flow than an easterly, there be less modification from the north sea for inland locations.

My only concern are thicknesses low enough to support strong convection? Remember it's not just about cold air over warm sea mean snow, I remember an easterly in 2013 I think which was -10 in uppers but it bought alot of stratuscumulus with shallow convection. 

Either way, hopefully the ECM can upgrade, it does tend to have more conservative uppers but it could be crucial between whether the easterly will be wet or white.

[Battleground Snow]

Mean and control following the OP up till 150

 

[Mike Poole]

GEM T198, who knows that this would do, amazing:

But look at the vortex across the globe too, absolutely mangled beyond repair!

[Snowman.]

Control looking pretty fine, amazing how far that NE russian high has come into play over the past 2 days. 

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I tell you what, I'm loving these west based NAO at the moment!

@Steve MurrMurr

 

There is a post in the tweet thread where Simon Lee muses about just how far  west based the neg NAO is setting up and how much Atlantic there is to the east ......the 12z gfs op manages to fit a ridge and the sceuro trough in to keep us cold and the sou’wester towards Iceland !  Mind you, the neg nao disappears by T300 ! 

Edited December 31, 2020 by bluearmy

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Good post Andy...

Many  easterlies have not turned out as expected.

Whilst it is quiet let me take you down memory lane....

My first recollection is from about 1955  - expected lots of snow showers - instead got days of cloudy, murky weather. Temps around 2-3C.

My next  recollection was around 1957. BFTE forecast  - got  totally sunny cloudless days with   temps way above those forecast. My first taste of a failed BFTE. (I had already got rid of the toys by then!)

I remember a second in the 60's when we were forecast a blizzard moving up thru France.   It got totally mixed out and we had 2 days of rain.

There was a similar occurrence in the 80's.

So - do not assume  that they are all snow fests.

They have never had that status,  in my opinion.  A very very reasonable chance yes - set in stone - no.

Also - The current temps in Europe have plainly been held back by the high pressure over the Urals preventing cold advancing from either the east or west.

This is fairly unusual  and particularly for it to last so long,  and I do wonder if this is what is affecting the weather (still) and skewing the thoughts of a lot of people.

I just wonder if another feature that I have observed is missing over the last 20 years, that of the really persistent outbreaks of cold  lasting thru Jan and Feb, will also show a return. 20th century cold was characterised by long cold spells setting in in late Dec or January. We have not seen these in recent decades.

I do acknowledge that we have had some cold outbreaks (such as 2009 - 2010), but  they were sourced from high pressure in Greenland, and cold coming down from the north.

One of my early memories was that of 1947( 3 year old blocked in for 3 weeks) , and as a result I obtained a library book on cold winters in my teens.

I will always remember the reconstructed charts shown that book  reviewing  the coldest winter in hundreds of years.  (think the one I mainly phantisize about was for 1689?? clearly a reconstruction), when temperatures were kept between -15C - 18C for a whole day in an easterly severe gale, in the SE of England.

The chart was I thought impossible to ever reproduce.

It showed high pressure over Siberia stretching thru Scandy to Greenland. Low pressure was lined up from the Azores thru the Med to Turkey. Can we get somewhere near that, whilst I am still alive? 

It is my one wish... thou I do worry about the social impacts of such a thing!!

MIA

 

 thanks for that MIA Sounds like there were some great winters I cannot see this country coping with such outbreak in these times what’s more I cannot see winters like that in the UK ever again happening I hope I am wrong and I get to experience one of them before my time.

[Griff]

Oxymoron but just for fun I'm not sure how plausible GFSP is in FI... 

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

There is a post in the tweet thread where Simon Lee muses about just how far  west based the neg NAO is setting up and how much Atlantic there is to the east ......the 12z gfs op manages to fit a ridge and the sceuro trough in to keep us cold and the sou’wester towards Iceland ! 

I admit we are probably playing a dangerous game with it, but it could produce the goods for cold fans

[Snowman.]

Just now, Griff said:

Oxymoron but just for fun I'm not sure how plausible GFSP is in FI... 

 

That is exactly where I want to be in 10 days time.

[Matt H]

31 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Not a great start if you’re including the Icon though !

Blimey, tough crowd.

[keithlucky]

10 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

March 2018 last time we had a strat warming that gave us bitter east winds.

Interesting to see what will happen around the 12th January  when the 2nd strat warning takes place around Eurasia.