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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Icon at 96

    The high is marginally further north in the early stages, helps with the angle of attack from the east, uppers slightly better but not by much

     

    iconnh-0-96 (1).png

    iconnh-1-96.png

    Uugh! All that yellow in europe

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Icon at 96

    The high is marginally further north in the early stages, helps with the angle of attack from the east, uppers slightly better but not by much

     

    iconnh-0-96 (1).png

    iconnh-1-96.png

    High sinking pretty quickly though 😔 dry away from the south east

    86A0B695-D272-4BF1-9210-4B1EAEB80E2A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Thunderstorms. Heatwaves. Anything extreme.
  • Location: West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    Uugh! All that yellow in europe

    That will soon change towards the end of next week. I wouldn’t worry too much about that. Anyway eyes down for the 12z output. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    High sinking pretty quickly though 😔 dry away from the south east

    86A0B695-D272-4BF1-9210-4B1EAEB80E2A.png

    Dead dead run!!!!!!what else is there to say!!!infact im not even gona pay attetion to it anymore regardless of whether it shows what we want or not!!!we pay attention to it cos its the first of the 12zs to come out!!nobody would give a damn if it came out after gfs and ukmo hands down!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    High sinking pretty quickly though 😔 dry away from the south east

    86A0B695-D272-4BF1-9210-4B1EAEB80E2A.png

    Looks precisely what the METO were  banging on about a week or so ago, high pressure over the UK for the beginning of January. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    High sinking pretty quickly though 😔 dry away from the south east

    86A0B695-D272-4BF1-9210-4B1EAEB80E2A.png

    True, this would probably help us out later as the Greenland high would be further east and make the iceland low drop further east. But the icon is going against all the other models at the moment with the high so close to us.

    174 here

     

     

    iconnh-0-174 (2).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Icon colder and v little precip in the ‘dp gate ‘ period .....

    I said the same thing bout the ukmo!!dew points may be lower but the high sinks a little further south so probably dry!!!if we have it a little further north then its too mild!!lose lose situation right now with this easterly🤣😒

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Icon colder and v little precip in the ‘dp gate ‘ period .....

    That easterly ship forr  early to mid week has clearly sailed for the bottom half of the UK at least. I personally gave up after the spaghetti plots from Ido this morning.  A tight pack of 4 and 5s tm2 out to 8th for the south east

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Can we keep it to the models in this thread, moans, chat about meto forecasts etc aren't relevant in this discussion. And if you've posted that sort of thing in the past 10 minutes, you'll find your post in the chat thread:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Thunderstorms. Heatwaves. Anything extreme.
  • Location: West Yorkshire

    To be honest looking at the icon this afternoon that isn’t a bad start cold and dry next week. The easterly for next week has never really been expected to be frigid and snowy. It’s around the week commencing 11th of January where my interest lies. By then we should have a good idea of the situation with the ssw. And we could well be seeing some mouth watering charts for cold and snow lovers everywhere. Just a case of been patient. But I do believe we are in for a very cold a snowy spell for the U.K. in the not too distant future. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    I can't see the high remaining over northern UK for long as it retrogresses north westwards allowing a Northerly plunge of some sort.

    I can’t see it ever getting there in the first place.  ICON shmicon!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Icon colder and v little precip in the ‘dp gate ‘ period .....

    Having peeked at the METO update i get the feeling its going to be how far does the depression get North before the colder air pushes it away not convinced on a UK high 

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    Methinks some of you are missing the point .......’get the cold in and the snow will follow’

    so we’ve got the cold in 

    the forecast temps quoted above show that 

    but the vast majority of the precip over the next  week (ignoring the disturbances before the weekend and the odd surprise before the higher Dp’s arrive which away from the high ground and Scots amount to little) is going to be rain.  it’s just frustration from many posters that the great looking charts are going to deliver very little and they now have to go through some v cold rain before they can have another ticket to the raffle. 
     

    of course some have had a decent snowfall this week and should be grateful for it but as was trailed as the week began, the majority will not. 

    Spot on. 

    Not only that, but there is a couple of things at play here.

    The SSW scenario, really rarely helps keep winter expectations to a low. They are so long winded, drawn out and fickle that you can spend 6-8 weeks of an entire winter avoiding looking at the actual weather models, focusing on something that can take all that time to happen, just to find that it's not the guaranteed ticket to cold some think it will be. People then have their own agenda's and mix up what's positive in the Strat to what's actually happening outside the window (the Strat and models mean nothing if it just rains outside your window) it just leads to all sorts of bickering and let downs through this thread. 

    The second thing is the fact that we have massively underachieved for what could have been a very nice pattern. I keep seeing 'Amazing winter' or 'This is so brilliant' etc - but there's a huge difference between amazing on the internet and amazing outside the window and that's why there's been so much frustration. You could argue the best word to describe this winter so far is 'unusual'. For two reasons, 1) The sheer persistence to keep the Vortex away from Greenland and 2) The complete lack of cold weather or wintry weather throughout the entire of Europe, despite point 1.

    Personally I cant emphasise enough for me how important it is to keep Strat/Models and then opinions going forward separate. 

    There would be a much better, more patient atmosphere if we had found a way to 'over achieve' with a small nationwide event etc. It's hard to get the point over that I'm making - but we have had much worse background conditions deliver a 2/3 cold spell with a slider that's bumped into colder air (December 2017 I believe delivered 5/6 inches over most of the midlands north and it was barely cold enough for Snow a day either side of the event) so to make absolutely ZERO use of a pattern that has vastly favoured Colder and snowy conditions for us, one that we will frankly, rarely EVER see in our lifetimes is very frustrating. We will have much worse setups in future years be remembered for much better snowy spells than what this years charts would have you believe so far. 

    We need to be realistic here it's 6 weeks now into Winter. It is all but January now and our winter so far has seen a very wet December where it rained virtually every day for 2/3 weeks of the month, we have had above average temperatures and bar the odd frost/isolated this week, basically absolutely nothing that would replicate wintry conditions. If you mix that with an SSW that now looks to be less favourable in terms of displacement/split then I can envisage the atmosphere being completely toxic in this thread if a very favourable pattern doesn't set up from an SSW that's been 6-8 weeks in the making. 

    OBVIOUSLY we are in a much better place than we may be without an SSW and this unusual pattern is absolutely fascinating. It's also nice to get the soil and ground a touch colder this week, there are some blocks in place that may well be favourable as we head into the middle of the month.

    However, I'd say expectations are now very high and mentally, anything less than a pretty memorable spell of cold and WIDESPREAD SNOWY spell will leave most with a nasty taste. No doubt about it, the potential is massive and we are in a better position than most years - but sooner or later the spell has to arrive without being delayed, watered down, pushed back or interrupted by a background model that flips and flops more than the 18Z GFS in FI

    If this winter ended now, the most significant memory of it would be the outrageous disparity between internet charts and the weather that happened. That needs to change ASAP. 

    On to the 12z.

    An early Happy New year to you all - may 2021 make up in whatever way possible for the misery that 2020 was! 

    Edited by PolarWarsaw
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    Posted
  • Location: lowestoft
  • Location: lowestoft

    Happy New Year to all.

    Expect to see the High pressure to be modeled further south than it is showing now, once this happens low pressure over Iceland and Greenland will move east and end up in Northern Europe around next weekend, this is when the fun and games will start, full blown NE gales, -10 uppers, low dew points,=lake effect, drifting , thunder snow.  

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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