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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

GEM surely okay for Wednesday? like ukmo, high is further south, -8 850's, EC and GFS are pants, hope to see them trending towards GEM and UKMO

gem-0-156.png?00

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The gfs mean shows the pattern change after d9>

anim_nvq4.gifanim_ryk7.gif

The tPV moving away from the Pacific/Asia region through Siberia and the net results are changes over the whole NH. More ridging in the Pacific, troughing in the US and the Russian high sliding east and sinking. This will disrupt the current Atlantic pattern so this upcoming blocking appears to be limited in lifespan (+EAMT relaxing?).

Of course, the SSW is well under way by then so no negative impact on the strat but maybe a holding pattern whilst we wait for the SSWE to manifest in the trop. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

A look at some the models for "dew points" next week - a discussion I don't think we've ever had like this before!

Looking at available models for T144, you can clearly see the thin loop of raised dew points circulating through a small line from SE Europe to the UK, with an added North Sea boost. Variances on how large this band of higher dew points will be, with ECM the warmest for the UK at this point. The charts show how little would need to change to get the UK out of the loop! (above 0C = usually good for snow)

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Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
1 minute ago, IDO said:

The gfs mean shows the pattern change after d9>

anim_nvq4.gifanim_ryk7.gif

The tPV moving away from the Pacific/Asia region through Siberia and the net results are changes over the whole NH. More ridging in the Pacific, troughing in the US and the Russian high sliding east and sinking. This will disrupt the current Atlantic pattern so this upcoming blocking appears to be limited in lifespan (+EAMT relaxing?).

Of course, the SSW is well under way by then so no negative impact on the strat but maybe a holding pattern whilst we wait for the SSWE to manifest in the trop. 

Oh no

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Posted
  • Location: Luton
  • Location: Luton

Also at T96 onwards, so sunday/ monday. It has a feature sitting east of the estuary just as the n’easterly kicks in. Could this be evident of a potential streamer on Sunday/ Monday morning. There is a front Across the whole of southern uk by Monday am, with tighter packed isobars adding to the the windchill factor. Oh a flake would be nice!!

3B6A5E62-AA66-4D41-9E9C-B12F6602DBE5.png

8391774D-2812-48FA-8144-6497EE5B0E4F.png

Edited by Justin1705
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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

morning all, well we have our first proper cold day ahead of us in what can best be described as a chilly spell, rain forecast sun/mon/tues so temps around 5/6c after today, going through todays posts there is still hope of some wintry weather, hopefully for parts that have not seen any as yet, lets hope the last day of a horrid 2020 can give us the cold upgrades we seek and may 2021 start on the same note,  i wish everyone here a better 2021.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
7 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Right just going through the fax. And noticed an occluded front, and a trough following after it, overnight Friday and into Saturday. Could be a little feature bringing some wintry showers to the was and london and south east. As per Arome and arpege it has some agreement of showers, or weak bands of precip pushing from north sea and northern counties. Interesting to see how far south they will make it. Although any accumulation is out of the question some flakes may be possible. Whats everyones thoughts?

7025B6AD-0B64-441E-835F-8FDD003BE3F8.webpUnavailable

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Hi Justin , it looks like warm air close to that occluded front would mean rain / sleet for most unfortunately , with any snow reserved for high ground 200 m or more. ( too marginal , hope im wrong )

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A look at some the models for "dew points" next week - a discussion I don't think we've ever had like this before!

Looking at available models for T144, you can clearly see the thin loop of raised dew points circulating through a small line from SE Europe to the UK, with an added North Sea boost. Variances on how large this band of higher dew points will be, with ECM the warmest for the UK at this point. The charts show how little would need to change to get the UK out of the loop! (above 0C = usually good for snow)

Screenshot_20201231-092252.thumb.png.4ecb0b77e3c59416c0e008ea181e08bb.png

Screenshot_20201231-092212.thumb.png.a3b679ab3174d38d6c0c24fff77421aa.png

Screenshot_20201231-092201.thumb.png.8e986c2676b3eea6b839798b73061502.png

Screenshot_20201231-092148.thumb.png.1ac9854d326558fbe1a9fc99400b1e72.png

Screenshot_20201231-092148.thumb.png.1ac9854d326558fbe1a9fc99400b1e72.png

Screenshot_20201231-092129.thumb.png.5b5eb9df7799e85741f75598736150de.png

Also wouldn't heavy showers bring down the dew point, albeit only temporarily?

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Gfs looks good for snow showers between 72 and 144 hours!!!ecm a wintry mix but can still change!!ukmo the best again!!!thats for snow potential between 72 and 144 hours!!!charts overall looks amazing again!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Also wouldn't heavy showers bring down the dew point, albeit only temporarily?

Dont worry battleground gfs and ukmo look better for the same time frame!!as long as this gfs 06z is the same or even better then i think ecm might jump on board this evening!!keep your updates coming i love em

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Posted
  • Location: Broadstairs, Isle of Thanet, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme seasonal events
  • Location: Broadstairs, Isle of Thanet, Kent

And so this bizarre spell seems set to continue. Struggling to remember an Atlantic  shutdown as prolonged as this. We seem to have created our own stagnant pool of cold air which we look to keep well into next week. Just a shame we are lacking any true cold source other wise things could have been more interesting. Still worth keeping in mind we are still in the early stages of winter. All eyes to the north and east towards the end of this coming week.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Dont worry battleground gfs and ukmo look better for the same time frame!!as long as this gfs 06z is the same or even better then i think ecm might jump on board this evening!!keep your updates coming i love em

Thanks @sheikhy

Here is a random one for you, icon EU for the start of the Easterly period, shows snow for the north east, rain further south

 

iconeu_uk1-42-75-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
48 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks BA.. my currentfocus has been on early next week  from the easterly, we have seen since yesterday a slight improvement on numbers.    just another smidge lower.

The further into next week we go then the greater room for further improvements. 

So I'm thinking at present we have run out of time to improve tangibly on uppers for Sunday and early Monday, however don't think unrealistic to seek tweaks from Monday evening onwards to put most of us right side of marginal. 

 A word of caution regarding the easterly flow next week folks sorry to be the voice of doom but 2012 had a great easterly on the ECM at 72 hours next day that disappeared down the sink hole feet will be kept firmly on the ground and excitement contained until t48 at least for me. still gives me nightmares that ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
21 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Here here. I find Blues realistic and down to earth analysis and input invaluable.  Reminiscent of the late great Philip Eden.

Jeez, I’m touched  .... but the big difference (amongst many) is that Philip was a pro metman ........ 

20 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Can you post the same for Birmingham or Leeds to show if it's any closer to marginal?

Birmingham the same, Leeds a tad better ...

image.thumb.png.a0ea6f14a1bf6655e74d7ecfcca31032.png

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Thanks @sheikhy

Here is a random one for you, icon EU for the start of the Easterly period, shows snow for the north east, rain further south

 

iconeu_uk1-42-75-0.png

That's because it's still out to sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Jeez, I’m touched  .... but the big difference (amongst many) is that Philip was a pro metman ........ 

Birmingham the same, Leeds a tad better ...

image.thumb.png.a0ea6f14a1bf6655e74d7ecfcca31032.png

I'd take that tad and wager that the pennine foothills may be slightly better from an imby point of view.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
11 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 A word of caution regarding the easterly flow next week folks sorry to be the voice of doom but 2012 had a great easterly on the ECM at 72 hours next day that disappeared down the sink hole feet will be kept firmly on the ground and excitement contained until t48 at least for me. still gives me nightmares that ECM.

I remember That ECM, someone on here calls himself that but I remember it well. It was truly superb and coming in mid December would have meant a deep white Christmas. Alas it was a ghost and Christmas 2012 was mild. At the moment however the hemisphere pattern is totally different and this ECM could be in the money

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
24 minutes ago, IDO said:

The gfs mean shows the pattern change after d9>

anim_nvq4.gifanim_ryk7.gif

The tPV moving away from the Pacific/Asia region through Siberia and the net results are changes over the whole NH. More ridging in the Pacific, troughing in the US and the Russian high sliding east and sinking. This will disrupt the current Atlantic pattern so this upcoming blocking appears to be limited in lifespan (+EAMT relaxing?).

Of course, the SSW is well under way by then so no negative impact on the strat but maybe a holding pattern whilst we wait for the SSWE to manifest in the trop. 

Yes IDO, the extended eps have been showing this solution for a few runs now with an e Alaskan ridge driving an east American trough

the 00z did seem to be suppressing the jet further south that little bit which prompted my thoughts on the strat thread that we could end up with the southern arm continuing to run into Iberia and no sou’westerly correction across nw Europe,  leaving us on the cold side of the jet.  The possibility of a ridge being thrown up ahead of the potential developing mid Atlantic trough (shown on gfsp ) remains feasible aswell and a nw european surface high is ok in tandem with a developing arctic high courtesy of the likely trop repsonse to the ssw by mid month. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

this is our issue for next weeks easterly ... that milder air thrown up into the Baltic 
 

image.thumb.png.8575a42692a2d2144fed62a7ac0c9014.png
 

but the way this then heads in our direction is a good few days  away and subject to some changes together with other variables 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
53 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well Blue there in lies an interesting question. Bearing in mind how they overplayed and mispositioned various snow risks this past week it could be equally likely that they might be underplaying them next week. Just a thought. Not picking an argument.

The met office certainly underplayed for my location (South Yorkshire) early hours of Tuesday morning. Forecast was for a couple of hours of sleet. Woke up to 4 or 5cms of snow so the models can get it wrong even at short notice. 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

this is our issue for next weeks easterly ... that milder air thrown up into the Baltic 
 

image.thumb.png.8575a42692a2d2144fed62a7ac0c9014.png

Yep, also the surface flow isn’t great. It’s a similar situation (but opposite problem) to the heatwave in June 2019. Upper atmospherics looking borderline amazing but the surface flow is sourced differently. 

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