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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    36 minutes ago, reno said:

    Hi all, rarely post as have no technical knowledge however am avid reader of this forum for many many years,

    Always a delight to read the intelligent interpretations of model predictions, let's not forget these models are predictive tools of events not yet occurred and not to blame if they go down another route..

    For me things appear more exciting for avid coldies than since 2010/2013, posted in the regionals regarding Mondays 9cm fall followed by 6cm today (stoke) this is a rarity, normally wrong side of marginal time and again, this bodes well going into jan as Uk is nearly always marginal, oh and my kiss of death, 7-10 day charts have bit of a 62/63 look to them... with a ssw to come...

    How many times have we heard that you say....

    Patterns normally go against our desires but every now and then we hit gold, certainly have lots of the main pieces in play, let's hope they fall kindly.

    Chart attached 30/12/62 note the Eastern European high that some are bemoaning now !!

    Dave

    78565B2D-C9D0-47B4-9E70-021985D80C32.jpeg

    Yes, in fairness there are striking similarities to some of the output we are seeing. Hopefully we will get a similar result 🙂

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    27 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    As Blue said earlier: Massive split at the end. Everything from +10 to -10 850hpa. Not sure how these compare to last few runs? 

    998DF312-F328-41A6-9F23-26B19D06BB95.jpeg

    Mr Murr posted a good post earlier mentioning extended GEFS. I know Blue uses them a lot, and righty so, but was interesting to see the logic in not putting to much emphasis on them regarding a forecast at this present time with the current pattern. (That’s how I read it anyway)
     

    The fact the extremes from -10 to +10 are in the mix enforces what he was suggesting. 
     

    Both scenarios are of course up for grabs but a little more patience going into the mid to longer term might be prudent at the moment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    39 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    errrmm!...we're piggy in the middle and it's hardly ever our turn?

    Well we ain’t in the middle...cold has drained from NA

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Well we ain’t in the middle...cold has drained from NA

     

    BFTP

    Its just been that annoying Russian high (albeit it clearly has some positive impacts as well) feeding warm air up into central Europe.. Catacol posted earlier that it looked like it might relax its grip somewhat and looking through the GEFS there is some evidence to support that. A slight shift in the source of the airmass could make a massive difference here. We don't even need to draw down air from the arctic, we just need to stop sourcing it from N Africa and the Eastern Med !!!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    On the subject of ‘Staying cold into the New Year’, here’s the GFS precipitation charts from the 3rd January (+120h) to the 8th January (+240h)....

    6EBF4B76-8820-4ABE-B4F0-DE41EEB04B28.thumb.gif.9cdc2051e4e6a40791790c13200861ab.gif

    This is, of course, guesswork by the GFS at this stage but it is showing snow or wintry showers somewhere in the UK on every single frame of this 5 day sequence.  This is a prospect we all want to see in January.  It’s not inconceivable that almost everyone will have some snow over this period which is not a prospect to be disappointed at, especially given the number of snowless years we’ve had recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Click and clunk guys here comes the 18z pub run...

    mUGWiL5.thumb.gif.024beda7bda2cdb0e65fe3208fcdb6bc.gif☺️

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    25 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

    Erm this tweet says the SSW has actually started 

     

    No it hasn’t.  A technical SSW is defined as zonal wind reversal at 10 hPa and 60N.  It will happen on 5/1/21 or very close.

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Well we ain’t in the middle...cold has drained from NA

     

    BFTP

    Stupid question maybe

    but wasn’t the last time all the cold drained from across the pond and North America in particular, the British isles had benefited from a very cold winter. I can remember Ian mc caskil in his forecast saying how barmy temperatures were in america

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    108 on the GFS sees the best anyle & cold pool modelled to the East so far

    2EB3CBE9-BD30-4044-AD66-B45E57574B3C.thumb.png.54bc5477b33d5ec05aedaf5f50cb52cf.png

    Yes, looks good so far

    gfsnh-0-120.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Not many substantial differences between the 12z and 18z at day 6. 

    image.thumb.png.207fc96e1ca73c8a93d77d8f57cda550.pngimage.thumb.png.1d05aaf797d9a546f8485f30910dd387.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    108 on the GFS sees the best anyle & cold pool modelled to the East so far

    2EB3CBE9-BD30-4044-AD66-B45E57574B3C.thumb.png.54bc5477b33d5ec05aedaf5f50cb52cf.png

    Indeed, very good slight modifications so far. Block seems to be stronger to the north too, no sign of the ECM's west based -NAO.

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    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Some small minus 10 pools popping up now too, shows how cold can develop in situ in these set ups

     

    Screenshot_20201229-221201.png

    I was just about to mention this, that easterly definitely could be colder than previous forecasts I think

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Indeed, very good slight modifications so far. Block seems to be stronger to the north too, no sign of the ECM's west based -NAO.

    Lets see how the SE wiggles out of this one...

    18z Harmonie keeps the faith

    E9548777-3338-4EAB-BB28-574508EDD470.thumb.png.dda4d41493400873813387453a5810b6.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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